Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Article
  • Published:

Global dietary convergence from 1970 to 2010 altered inequality in agriculture, nutrition and health

Nature Food volume 2, pages 156–165 (2021)Cite this article

Subjects

Abstract

Humans globally have similar nutritional needs but face large differences in natural resource endowments and local food production. This study quantifies food-system inequality across countries on the basis of natural resource inputs, food/nutrient outputs and nutrition/health outcomes, from 1970 to 2010. Animal source foods and overweight/obesity show rapid convergence while availability of selected micronutrients show slower convergence. However, all variables are more equally distributed than national income per capita, the Gini coefficient of which declined from 0.71 to 0.65. Inequalities in total and animal-source dietary energy declined from 0.16 to 0.10 and 0.55 to 0.36, respectively. There was convergence in overweight/obesity prevalence from 0.39 to 0.27, while undernutrition and stunting became increasingly concentrated in a few high-burden countries. Characterizing cross-country inequalities in agricultural resources, foods, nutrients and health can help identify critical opportunities for agriculture and food policies, as well as prioritize research objectives and funding allocation for the coming decade.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Buy this article

  • Purchase on Springer Link
  • Instant access to full article PDF
Buy now

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Fig. 1: GDP per capita.
Fig. 2: Area harvested per rural capita and livestock units per rural capita.
Fig. 3: Energy from ASF and from F&V.
Fig. 4: Micronutrient availability per capita.
Fig. 5: Stunting per children <5, and underweight, and overweight per adult population.
Fig. 6: Hypertension, female and male.
Fig. 7: Levels and changes in Gini coefficients (1970 and 2010).

Similar content being viewed by others

Data availability

All data used in this study are publicly available from open sources as indicated in the references in the Methods. Enquiries related to the NBS should be made to K.L. (k.lividini@cgiar.org).

Code availability

All data analysis was carried out in Stata SE 15. All figures were produced in Stata with the exception of Fig. 7 which was produced using Excel. The code used for data analysis and figure production is available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

References

  1. Rockström, J., Stordalen, G. A. & Horton, R. Acting in the Anthropocene: the EAT–Lancet Commission. Lancet 387, 2364–2365 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Bentham, J. et al. Multidimensional characterization of global food supply from 1961 to 2013. Nat. Food 1, 70–75 (2020).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Popkin, B. M. Relationship between shifts in food system dynamics and acceleration of the global nutrition transition. Nutri. Rev. 75, 73–82 (2017).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Khoury, C. K. et al. Increasing homogeneity in global food supplies. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 111, 4001–4006 (2014).

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  5. Hawkes, C., Chopra, M. & Friel, S. in Globalization and Health: Pathways, Evidence and Policy (eds Labonté, R. et al.) Ch. 10 (Routledge, 2009).

  6. Baker, P. & Friel, S. Food systems transformations, ultra-processed food markets and the nutrition transition in Asia. Glob. Health 12, 80 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Sen, A. in The Tanner Lecture on Human Values 1–26 (Stanford, 1979).

  8. Wagstaff, A., Paci, P. & Van Doorslaer, E. On the measurement of inequalities in health. Soc. Sci. Med. 33, 545–557 (1991).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  9. Harper, S. & Lynch, J. in Methods in Social Epidemiology (eds Oakes, J. M. & Kaufman, J.) Ch. 5 (Jossey-Bass, 2017).

  10. Seekell, D. A., D’Odorico, P. & Pace, M. L. Virtual water transfers unlikely to redress inequality in global water use. Environ. Res. Lett. 6, 024017 (2011).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  11. Guragai, B., Takizawa, S., Hashimoto, T. & Oguma, K. Science of the total environment effects of inequality of supply hours on consumers’ coping strategies and perceptions of intermittent water supply in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. Sci. Total Environ. 599–600, 431–441 (2017).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  12. Steinberger, J. K., Krausmann, F. & Eisenmenger, N. Global patterns of materials use: a socioeconomic and geophysical analysis. Ecol. Econ. 69, 1148–1158 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Groot, L. Carbon Lorenz curves. Resour. Energy Econ. 32, 45–64 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Lawrence, S., Liu, Q. & Yakovenko, V. M. Global inequality in energy consumption from 1980 to 2010. Entropy 15, 5565–5579 (2013).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  15. Gluzmann, P. & Gasparini, L. International inequality in subjective well-being: an exploration with the Gallup World Poll. Rev. Dev. Econ. https://doi.org/10.1111/rode.12356 (2017).

  16. Afshin, A. et al. Health effects of dietary risks in 195 countries, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 393, 1958–1972 (2019).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Milanovic, B. Worlds Apart: Measuring International and Global Inequality (University Press, 2011).

    Book  Google Scholar 

  18. Milanovic, B. Global Inequality (Belknap, 2016).

    Book  Google Scholar 

  19. Willett, W. C. et al. Food in the Anthropocene: the EAT–Lancet Commission on healthy diets from sustainable food systems. Lancet 393, 447–492 (2020).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Dietary Reference Values for Nutrients. Summary Report EFSA Supporting publication, 2017, e15121 (European Food Safety Authority Panel on Dietetic Products Nutrition & Allergies, 2017).

  21. Global Food Losses and Food Waste—Extent, Causes and Prevention (FAO, 2011).

  22. NCD-RisC. Worldwide trends in blood pressure from 1975 to 2015: a pooled analysis of 1479 population-based measurement studies with 19.1 million participants. Lancet 389, 37–55 (2017).

  23. NCD-RisC Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants. Lancet 387, 1513–1530 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Herforth, A. et al. Cost and Affordability of Healthy Diets Across and Within Countries. Background Paper for the State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World. FAO Agricultural Development Economics Technical Study No. 9 (FAO, 2020).

  25. Bai, Y., Naumova, E. N. & Masters, W. A. Seasonality of diet costs reveals food system performance in East Africa. Sci. Adv. 6, eabc2162 (2020).

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  26. Issues in the Collection of FAO Data (African Commission on Agricultural Statistics, 2013); http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/ess/documents/afcas23/DOC_-_3f__Eng_.pdf

  27. UN Sustainable Development Goals. Universal Values: Leave No One Behind (UN Sustainable Development Group, 2020); https://unsdg.un.org/2030-agenda/universal-values/leave-no-one-behind

  28. UN Sustainable Development Goals. Transforming our World: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (UN Sustainable Development Group, 2020); https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/post2015/transformingourworld

  29. Tomich et al. Transforming Agrarian Economies: Opportunities Seized, Opportunities Missed (Cornell, 1995).

    Book  Google Scholar 

  30. Masters, W. A., Rosenblum, N. Z. & Alemu, R. G. Agricultural transformation, nutrition transition and food policy in Africa: Preston curves reveal new stylised facts. J. Dev. Stud. 54, 788–802 (2018).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Matson, P. A., Parton, W. J., Power, A. G. & Swift, M. J. Agricultural intensification and ecosystem properties. Science 227, 504–509 (1997).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Rudel, T. K. et al. Agricultural intensification and changes in cultivated areas, 1970-2005. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 106, 20675–20680 (2009).

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  33. Forouzanfar, M. H. et al. Global, regional and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. Lancet 386, 2287–2323 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  34. The State of Food and Agriculture 2019. Moving Forward on Food Loss and Waste Reduction (FAO, 2019).

  35. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2020. Transforming Food Systems for Affordable Healthy Diets (FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO, 2020); https://doi.org/10.4060/ca9692en

  36. Wood, S. A. et al. Trade and the equitability of global food nutrient distribution. Nat. Sustain. 1, 34–37 (2018).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  37. Black, R. E. et al. Maternal and child undernutrition and overweight in low-income and middle-income countries. Lancet 382, 427–451 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  38. NCD-RisC. Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19.2 million participants. Lancet 387, 1377–1396 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  39. NCD-RisC Worldwide trends in body-mass index, underweight, overweight, and obesity from 1975 to 2016: a pooled analysis of 2416 population-based measurement studies in 128.9 million children, adolescents, and adults. Lancet https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32129-3 (2017).

  40. World Development Indicators (World Bank, accessed November 2019); https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators

  41. FAOSTAT (FAO, accessed November 2019); http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/

  42. Smith, M. R., Micha, R., Golden, C. D., Mozaffarian, D. & Myers, S. S. Global Expanded Nutrient Supply (GENuS) model: a new method for estimating the global dietary supply of nutrients. PLoS ONE 11, e0146976 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  43. Schmidhuber, J. et al. The Global Nutrient Database: availability of macronutrients and micronutrients in 195 countries from 1980 to 2013. Lancet Plan. Health 2, e353–e368. (2018).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  44. USDA National Nutrient Database for Standard Reference, Legacy (USDA Agricultural Research Service, Nutrient Data Laboratory, 2018); http://www.ars.usda.gov/nutrientdata

  45. World Population Prospects 2018 (UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2019); https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/

  46. World Urbanization Prospects 2018 (UN Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs, 2019); https://population.un.org/wup/

  47. World Bank Country and Lending Groups (World Bank, 2018); https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-bank-country-and-lending-groups

  48. Milanovic, B. The Three Concepts of Inequality Defined, From Worlds Apart: Measuring International and Global Inequality (University Press, 2005).

    Google Scholar 

  49. Pen, J. Income Distribution (Allen Lane, 1971).

    Google Scholar 

  50. Jann, B. Variable bar widths in two-way graphs. Stata J. 15, 316–318 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  51. ColorBrewer v.2.0 (ColorBrewer, 2013); http://www.ColorBrewer.org

Download references

Acknowledgements

We are grateful to A. Dangour and B. Shankar for initiating this project with funding for W.B. and K.L. from the Wellcome Trust (grant number 210794/Z/18/Z). W.M. was supported by the US Agency for International Development (cooperative agreement 720-OAA-18-LA-00003). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed here are those of the authors alone.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy, Tufts University, Boston, MA, USA

    Winnie Bell, Keith Lividini & William A. Masters

  2. HarvestPlus, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington, DC, USA

    Keith Lividini

Authors
  1. Winnie Bell
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Keith Lividini
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. William A. Masters
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

W.A.M. conceived the overall study with inputs from W.B. and K.L. W.B. and K.L. assembled the data and developed the model code for the analysis. W.B. drafted the manuscript, K.L. and W.A.M. reviewed and edited the manuscript. All authors contributed to the revisions.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to William A. Masters.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Additional information

Peer review information Nature Food thanks Jody Harris, Shauna Downs and Mark Lundy for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

Supplementary Table 1 and Figs. 1–14.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Bell, W., Lividini, K. & Masters, W.A. Global dietary convergence from 1970 to 2010 altered inequality in agriculture, nutrition and health. Nat Food 2, 156–165 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00241-9

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00241-9

This article is cited by

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing