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Air quality, nitrogen use efficiency and food security in China are improved by cost-effective agricultural nitrogen management

Nature Food volume 1, pages 648–658 (2020)Cite this article

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Abstract

China’s gains in food production over the past four decades have been associated with substantial agricultural nitrogen losses, which contribute to air and water pollution, greenhouse gas emissions and damage to human health. Here, we explore the potential to improve agricultural production practices that simultaneously increase yields while addressing these environmental challenges. We link agronomic research with air quality modelling for an integrated assessment of four improved nitrogen management strategies: improved farm management practices with nitrogen use reductions; machine deep placement of fertilizer; enhanced-efficiency fertilizer use; and improved manure management. We find that simultaneous implementation of the four strategies provides the largest benefits, which include: reductions in PM2.5 concentrations and associated premature deaths; increases in grain yields and grain nitrogen use efficiency; reductions in NO3− leaching and runoff and greenhouse gas emissions. Total benefits of US$30 billion per year exceed the US$18 billion per year in costs. Our findings indicate that policies that improve farmers’ agricultural nitrogen management in China will improve both food security and public health while addressing multiple environmental challenges. Similar increases in attention on agricultural policy around the world are likely to provide large benefits in food security, environmental integrity and public health.

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Fig. 1: An integrated assessment framework for evaluating the impacts of improved N management in China.
Fig. 2: NH3 emission reductions achieved through the implementation of N management scenarios.
Fig. 3: PM2.5 air quality impacts of the implementation of N management scenarios.
Fig. 4: Yield, NUE, GHG emissions and water pollution impacts of implementing improved N management scenarios.

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Data availability

The datasets generated during this study are available from Princeton University’s DataSpace repository (http://arks.princeton.edu/ark:/88435/dsp01pz50gz996). Source data are provided with this paper.

Code availability

NCAR Command Language (NCL) is used for analyses and visualizations in this study50. The NCL code is available from Princeton University’s DataSpace repository (http://arks.princeton.edu/ark:/88435/dsp01pz50gz996).

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Acknowledgements

Y.G. thanks the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs and the Graduate School at Princeton University for providing a five-year graduate fellowship and a Dean’s Completion Fellowship, respectively. L.Z. and L.M. acknowledge support from the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2017YFC0210102, 2018YFC0213304 and 2018YFC0213305) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41922037). W.Z. acknowledges support from the National Key Technologies Research and Development Program (grant 2016YFD0201303). We appreciate observations shared by S. Lai, Q. Yuan, J. Chen, Y. He, S. Wu and J. X. Warner, programming code for visualization shared by Y. Huang, and constructive suggestions from D. Kanter.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA

    Yixin Guo, Timothy D. Searchinger, Junnan Yang & Denise L. Mauzerall

  2. Laboratory for Climate and Ocean–Atmosphere Studies, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing, China

    Youfan Chen, Mi Zhou & Lin Zhang

  3. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA

    Da Pan, Mark A. Zondlo & Denise L. Mauzerall

  4. Key Laboratory of Plant–Soil Interactions, Ministry of Education, Center for Resources, Environment, and Food Security, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China

    Liang Wu, Zhenling Cui, Weifeng Zhang & Fusuo Zhang

  5. Key Laboratory of Agricultural Water Resources, Hebei Key Laboratory of Soil Ecology, Center for Agricultural Resources Research, Institute of Genetic and Developmental Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shijiazhuang, China

    Lin Ma

  6. State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

    Yele Sun

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Contributions

Y.G., L.Z., T.D.S. and D.L.M. designed the study. Y.G., Y.C., M.Z., D.P. and J.Y. performed the research. L.W., Z.C., W.Z., F.Z., L.M., Y.S. and M.A.Z. contributed data and analytical tools. Y.G., T.D.S., L.Z. and D.L.M. analysed the results and wrote the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Lin Zhang or Denise L. Mauzerall.

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Guo, Y., Chen, Y., Searchinger, T.D. et al. Air quality, nitrogen use efficiency and food security in China are improved by cost-effective agricultural nitrogen management. Nat Food 1, 648–658 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-020-00162-z

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