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Physically constrained generative adversarial networks for improving precipitation fields from Earth system models

Nature Machine Intelligence volume 4, pages 828–839 (2022)Cite this article

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Abstract

Precipitation results from complex processes across many scales, making its accurate simulation in Earth system models (ESMs) challenging. Existing post-processing methods can improve ESM simulations locally but cannot correct errors in modelled spatial patterns. Here we propose a framework based on physically constrained generative adversarial networks to improve local distributions and spatial structure simultaneously. We apply our approach to the computationally efficient CM2Mc–LPJmL ESM. Our method outperforms existing ones in correcting local distributions and leads to strongly improved spatial patterns, especially regarding the intermittency of daily precipitation. Notably, a double-peaked Intertropical Convergence Zone, a common problem in ESMs, is removed. Enforcing a physical constraint to preserve global precipitation sums, the generative adversarial network can generalize to future climate scenarios unseen during training. Feature attribution shows that the generative adversarial network identifies regions where the ESM exhibits strong biases. Our method constitutes a general framework for correcting ESM variables and enables realistic simulations at a fraction of the computational cost.

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Fig. 1: Schematic of the CycleGAN model.
Fig. 2: Comparison of global ME maps over the June–August season.
Fig. 3: Qualitative and quantitative comparison of the intermittency in daily precipitation above 1 mm day−1 on 25 December 2014.
Fig. 4: Large-scale trends as a 3-year rolling mean of monthly and spatially average precipitation for the CMIP6 SSP5-8.5 scenario.
Fig. 5: Annual average of daily precipitation fields from CM2Mc-LPJmL together with attribution maps.

Data availability

The ERA5 reanalysis data are available for download at the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) (https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/reanalysis-era5-single-levels?tab=overview and https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/reanalysis-era5-single-levels-preliminary-back-extension?tab=overview). Output data from the CM2Mc-LPJmL model are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4683086 (ref. 67). The CMIP6 data can be downloaded at https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6/.

Code availability

For the CM2Mc-LPJmL model code, see https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4700270 (ref. 68). The Python code for processing and analysing the data, together with the PyTorch Lightning69 code for training, is available as a compute capsule at Code Ocean (https://doi.org/10.24433/CO.2750913.v1)70.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank the referees for their helpful comments and suggestions. N.B. and P.H. acknowledge funding by the Volkswagen Foundation, as well as the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research and the Land Brandenburg for supporting this project by providing resources on the high-performance computer system at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. M.D. acknowledges funding by the Volkswagen Foundation project POEM-PBSim. The authors thank the International Max Planck Research School for Intelligent Systems (IMPRS-IS) for supporting F.M.S. N.B. acknowledges further funding by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research under grant no. 01LS2001A.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering & Design, Technical University Munich, Munich, Germany

    Philipp Hess & Niklas Boers

  2. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany

    Philipp Hess, Markus Drüke, Stefan Petri, Felix M. Strnad & Niklas Boers

  3. Cluster of Excellence - Machine Learning for Science, Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany

    Felix M. Strnad

  4. Global Systems Institute and Department of Mathematics, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK

    Niklas Boers

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Contributions

P.H. and N.B. conceived the research and designed the study with input from all authors. P.H. performed the numerical analysis. M.D. conducted the CM2Mc-LPJmL experiments. All authors interpreted and discussed the results. P.H. wrote the manuscript with input from all authors.

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Correspondence to Philipp Hess.

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Hess, P., Drüke, M., Petri, S. et al. Physically constrained generative adversarial networks for improving precipitation fields from Earth system models. Nat Mach Intell 4, 828–839 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s42256-022-00540-1

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