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Rural migration under climate and land systems change

Nature Sustainability volume 7, pages 1092–1101 (2024)Cite this article

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Abstract

Human migration is both a consequence and a cause of environmental change. Related scientific and policy discourse focuses largely on international and urban migration, while rural migration receives far less attention. This is despite rural mobility being a key adaptive strategy for smallholders globally in the face of climate, environmental and social change. The integration of migration studies and land system science may serve to advance understanding of rural migration processes, and in turn advance the science of the fields themselves. Such efforts are relevant in an increasingly mobile world where new models and theory will be needed to meaningfully understand migration dynamics within sustainable socio-environmental systems.

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Fig. 1: Conceptual model of rural–rural migration and land systems.
Fig. 2: Decision complexity underlying the MLSM.
Fig. 3: ABM simulations exploring system telecouplings and thresholds under various climate scenarios.
Fig. 4: ABM sensitivity results to assess the relative structure–agency influences on migration outcomes.

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Acknowledgements

This work was funded by the Human–Environment and Geographical Sciences Program of the US National Science Foundation (award number 2049858). J.S. and R.W. received support from the School of Global Environmental Sustainability at Colorado State University.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Human Dimensions of Natural Resources, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA

    Jonathan Salerno & Rekha Warrier

  2. Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA

    Jonathan Salerno

  3. Department of Geographic and Environmental Sciences, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY, USA

    Andrea E. Gaughan & Forrest R. Stevens

  4. Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA

    Randall Boone

  5. Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA

    Patrick W. Keys

  6. Department of Wildlife Management, Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro, Tanzania

    Lazaro Johana Mangewa

  7. Department of Forest and Environmental Economics, Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro, Tanzania

    Felister Michael Mombo

  8. Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia Climate School, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA

    Alex de Sherbinin

  9. Department of Environmental Studies, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA

    Joel Hartter

  10. Institute of Behavioral Science, CU Population Center, Department of Sociology, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA

    Lori Hunter

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Contributions

J.S., A.E.G. and F.R.S. conceptualized the paper. J.S., A.E.G., R.W., R.B., F.R.S., P.W.K., L.J.M., F.M.M., A.d.S., J.H. and L.H. drafted the initial synopsis and contributed to writing and revising the paper.

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Correspondence to Jonathan Salerno.

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Salerno, J., Gaughan, A.E., Warrier, R. et al. Rural migration under climate and land systems change. Nat Sustain 7, 1092–1101 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-024-01396-6

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