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Vulnerability to collapse of coral reef ecosystems in the Western Indian Ocean

Nature Sustainability (2021)Cite this article

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Abstract

Ecosystems worldwide are under increasing threat. We applied a standardized method for assessing the risk of ecosystem collapse, the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Ecosystems, to coral reefs in the Western Indian Ocean (WIO), covering 11,919 km2 of reef (~5% of the global total). Our approach combined indicators of change in historic ecosystem extent, ecosystem functioning (hard corals, fleshy algae, herbivores and piscivores) and projected sea temperature warming. We show that WIO coral reefs are vulnerable to collapse at the regional level, while in 11 nested ecoregions they range from critically endangered (islands, driven by future warming) to vulnerable (continental coast and northern Seychelles, driven principally by fishing pressure). Responses to avoid coral reef collapse must include ecosystem-based management of reefs and adjacent systems combined with mitigating and adapting to climate change. Our approach can be replicated across coral reefs globally to help countries and other actors meet conservation and sustainability targets set under multiple global conventions—including the Convention on Biological Diversity’s post-2020 global biodiversity framework and the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals.

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Fig. 1: Coral reefs in the WIO and 11 of its ecoregions were evaluated using the RLE.
Fig. 2: Coral reef ecosystem model applied in assessing the risk of collapse for WIO coral reefs.
Fig. 3: Risk levels of biotic disruption for each compartment in the reef model for criterion D of the RLE.

Data availability

The study used existing and available data and did not involve any primary data collection. Data on hard coral and algae cover as well as fish abundance were compiled from multiple contributors (coral reef monitoring data collected using standard methods defined by the GCRMN) as described in ref. 13. These data are owned by the various data contributors (full list in Supplementary Information 8.1) and permissions to access data would need to be sought from individual contributors, which can be facilitated by the corresponding author. SST projection data were obtained from ref. 22 open access and coral reef extent data was from Millennium Coral Reef layer as described in ref. 74 (http://www.imars.usf.edu/MC/).

Code availability

Data processing, aggregation and analysis were undertaken in R with code saved in GitHub. Each criterion was calculated using individual analytical flows developed using R Markdown. Each code file had its own specific input data and used standard R functions like tidyr, dplyr, plyr and ggplot for the various steps. For criterion B, calculations of the AOO and EOO were done using a tool specifically developed for the RLE, redlistr ((23)). These analytical workflows could be made available from the corresponding author on request.

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Acknowledgements

We thank contributors in the Western Indian Ocean GCRMN for access to data for this study and the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems Unit for initial training and scoping. This study was supported by the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (NORAD) for the project ‘Innovating and sharing knowledge for coastal resilience in Eastern Africa’ at CORDIO East Africa (to D.O., M.G., M.S., K.O. and J.M.). The scientific results and conclusions, as well as any views or opinions expressed herein, are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of NOAA or the Department of Commerce.

Author information

Affiliations

  1. CORDIO East Africa, Mombasa, Kenya

    David Obura, Mishal Gudka, Melita Samoilys, Kennedy Osuka & James Mbugua

  2. IUCN Coral Specialist Group, Mombasa, Kenya

    David Obura

  3. IUCN Grouper and Wrasse Specialist Group, Mombasa, Kenya

    Melita Samoilys

  4. School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

    David A. Keith

  5. Oceanographic Research Institute, Durban, South Africa

    Sean Porter

  6. Centre for Applied Marine Sciences, Bangor University, Bangor, UK

    Ronan Roche

  7. Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA

    Ruben van Hooidonk

  8. Ocean Chemistry and Ecosystems Division, NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Miami, FL, USA

    Ruben van Hooidonk

  9. AIDE, Moroni, Comoros

    Said Ahamada

  10. Administração Nacional das Áreas de Conservação (ANAC), Maputo, Mozambique

    Armindo Araman

  11. Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute, Mombasa, Kenya

    Juliet Karisa

  12. Marine Parks and Reserves Unit (MPRU), Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

    John Komakoma

  13. Moheli Marine Park, Nioumachoua, Comoros

    Mouchtadi Madi

  14. Seychelles National Parks Authority, Victoria, Seychelles

    Isabelle Ravinia

  15. Centre National de Recherches Océanographiques (CNRO), Nosy Be, Madagascar

    Haja Razafindrainibe

  16. Institute of Marine Science (IMS), Zanzibar, Tanzania

    Saleh Yahya

  17. National Institute of Fisheries Research, Maputo, Mozambique

    Francisco Zivane

Authors
  1. David Obura
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  2. Mishal Gudka
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Contributions

D.O. was responsible for overall leadership, coordination and manuscript preparation. D.O. and M.S. undertook fundraising. M.G. took leadership on analysis and coding. D.O., M.G., M.S., K.O., J.M., D.A.K., S.P. and R.R. were involved in methodology and conceptual development, including how to use data and inputs. D.O., M.G., M.S., K.O., S.P., S.A., J. Karisa, M.M. and S.Y. contributed coral reef monitoring data. D.O., M.G., M.S., K.O., J.M., S.P., R.R. and R.v.H. were involved in primary analysis. D.O., M.G., M.S., K.O., J.M., D.A.K., S.P., R.R., R.v.H., S.A., A.A., J. Karisa, J. Komakoma, M.M., I.R., H.R., S.Y. and F.Z. contributed other data and tools, including considering interpretation and workshops, manuscript writing and editing.

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Correspondence to David Obura.

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The authors declare no competing interests.

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Peer review information Nature Sustainability thanks J. Duffy, Andres Etter, Peter Mumby and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

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Obura, D., Gudka, M., Samoilys, M. et al. Vulnerability to collapse of coral reef ecosystems in the Western Indian Ocean. Nat Sustain (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-021-00817-0

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