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Historical dynamics of landslide risk from population and forest-cover changes in the Kivu Rift

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Abstract

Human activity influences both the occurrence and impact of landslides in mountainous environments. Population pressure and the associated land-use changes are assumed to exacerbate landslide risk, yet there is a lack of statistical evidence to support this claim, especially in the Global South where historical records are scarce. In this work, we explore the interactions between population, deforestation and landslide risk in the Kivu Rift in Africa. To do so, we develop a holistic landslide risk model that evaluates 58 years of population and forest-cover trends. We show that the current landslide risk in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is twice as high as in neighbouring Rwanda and Burundi. Congolese households, on average, populate more hazardous terrain, probably as a result of conflicts and economic pull factors such as mining. Moreover, the recent large-scale deforestation of primary rainforest in the DRC has considerably exacerbated the landslide risk. Our analysis demonstrates how the legacy of deforestation, conflicts and population dynamics is reflected in the landslide risk in the Kivu Rift.

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Fig. 1: Overview of the Kivu Rift.
Fig. 2: The 1958 orthomosaic and forest cover for the Kivu Rift.
Fig. 3: Conflicts, forest dynamics and demography in the Kivu Rift.
Fig. 4: Landslide hazard trends in the Kivu Rift and the link with landslide susceptibility.
Fig. 5: Landslide exposure and risk in the Kivu Rift.
Fig. 6: Conceptual overview of the key processes affecting shallow landslide risk in the Kivu Rift.

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Data availability

The 1958 forest-cover data can be accessed at: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5027117. The 1958 panchromatic orthomosaics will become available at the end of the PAStECA project in March 2022 (http://pasteca.africamuseum.be/data). The landslide inventory is provided by Depicker et al.20 (https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-445-2021) and can be downloaded at: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5027004. The land-cover data for 1988 and 2001 are provided by Basnet and Vodacek66 (https://doi.org/10.3390/rs70606683). The 2016 land-cover data are provided by ESA and can be accessed at: http://2016africalandcover20m.esrin.esa.int/. The population-density data are derived from the Global Human Settlement Layer that can be accessed at: http://ghsl.jrc.ec.europa.eu/. The Shuttle Radar Topography Mission digital elevation model is provided by the US Geological Survey (https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov/). The seismic data (Peak Ground Acceleration) are provided by Delvaux et al.83 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jafrearsci.2016.10.004) upon contacting the corresponding author. The road data can be downloaded from OpenStreetMap (https://www.openstreetmap.org/#map=7/50.510/4.475). The Global Forest Change 2000–2019 data from Hansen et al.71 can be found at: https://data.globalforestwatch.org/documents/14228e6347c44f5691572169e9e107ad/explore. The lithology data are retrieved from the work of Depicker et al.29 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2019.106886) and can be requested from the author. The raw data used for Figs. 3–5 in this work can be accessed at: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.14838825. Source data are provided with this paper.

Code availability

The Python code used to derive the forest cover from aerial photographs and reconstruct the forest-cover changes can be requested from the corresponding authors.

Change history

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Acknowledgements

This study was supported by the Belgium Science Policy Office (BELSPO) through the PAStECA project (BR/165/A3/PASTECA) entitled ‘Historical Aerial Photographs and Archives to Assess Environmental Changes in Central Africa’ (http://pasteca.africamuseum.be/). We further wish to thank F. Canters, F. Makanzu Imwangana, A. M. C. Umutoni, G. Sakindi, J. van Vliet and T. De Putter for their insightful discussions and recommendations regarding this research.

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A.D., L.J., G.G. and O.D. designed the study. A.D. developed the models and carried out the analyses. A.D. wrote the paper and designed the figures, with input from L.J., G.G. and O.D. B.S. and F.K. organized and processed the historical aerial photographs. B.S. and A.D. created the panchromatic orthomosaic. N.M., M.L. and E.W. developed the algorithms to classify the orthomosaic into forest. C.M. contributed to the historical analysis of the societal drivers. A.V.R. contributed to the design of the land-cover methodology. All authors proofread and commented on the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Arthur Depicker or Olivier Dewitte.

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Peer review information Nature Sustainability thanks Fritz Kleinschroth, Faith E. Taylor and Anthony Vodacek for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

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Depicker, A., Jacobs, L., Mboga, N. et al. Historical dynamics of landslide risk from population and forest-cover changes in the Kivu Rift. Nat Sustain 4, 965–974 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-021-00757-9

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