Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Brief Communication
  • Published:

Governance challenges for tropical nations losing fish species due to climate change

Nature Sustainability volume 3, pages 277–280 (2020)Cite this article

Subjects

Abstract

Climate change is driving fishery stocks out of their historical ranges. Along with the management challenge of species entering new jurisdictions, the exit of species from countries’ waters poses distinct threats to those resources and the economies that depend on them. We show that this risk is particularly acute in the tropics, where projected exits are highest and entries are fewest. We find that existing policy frameworks are poorly equipped for this challenge, and we suggest a way forward that draws on climate policy.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Buy this article

  • Purchase on Springer Link
  • Instant access to full article PDF
Buy now

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Fig. 1: National loss of species.
Fig. 2: Impact to tropical regions.

Similar content being viewed by others

Data availability

The species distribution maps used to generate the range-shift projections that informed our analysis are publicly available at https://www.aquamaps.org/. Datasets generated during and/or analysed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

References

  1. García Molinos, J. et al. Climate velocity and the future global redistribution of marine biodiversity. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 83–88 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Pinsky, M. L. et al. Preparing ocean governance for species on the move. Science 360, 1189–1191 (2018).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  3. Mycoo, M. A. Beyond 1.5 °C: vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies for Caribbean Small Island Developing States. Reg. Environ. Change 18, 2341–2353 (2018).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. King, A. D. & Harrington, L. J. The inequality of climate change from 1.5 to 2 °C of global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 45, 5030–5033 (2018).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Gaines, S. D. et al. Improved fisheries management could offset many negative effects of climate change. Sci. Adv. 4, eaao1378 (2018).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Golden, C. D. et al. Nutrition: fall in fish catch threatens human health. Nature 534, 317–320 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) (WMO, 2018).

  8. Sustainable Fisheries Act: Amendments to the Magnuson–Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act 16 US Code Ch. 38 Sec. 1801 et seq. (US Government, 1996).

  9. United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea (UN, 1982).

  10. Diekert, F. K. & Nieminen, E. International fisheries agreements with a shifting stock. Dyn. Games Appl. 7, 185–211 (2017).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. The United Nations Agreement for the Implementation of the Provisions of the United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea of 10 December 1982 Relating to the Conservation and Management of Straddling Fish Stocks and Highly Migratory Fish Stocks (UN, 1995).

  12. Pentz, B., Klenk, N., Ogle, S. & Fisher, J. A. D. Can regional fisheries management organizations (RFMOs) manage resources effectively during climate change? Mar. Policy 92, 13–20 (2018).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems: Regional Fishery Bodies (FAO, 2019); https://go.nature.com/2UxqI6V

  14. Flanagan, P. H., Jensen, O. P., Morley, J. W. & Pinsky, M. L. Response of marine communities to local temperature changes. Ecography 42, 214–224 (2019).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Memarzadeh, M., Britten, G. L., Worm, B. & Boettiger, C. Rebuilding global fisheries under uncertainty. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 116, 15985–15990 (2019).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  16. Aqorau, T., Bell, J. & Kittinger, J. N. Good governance for migratory species. Science 361, 1208–1209 (2018).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  17. Pershing, A. J. et al. Slow adaptation in the face of rapid warming leads to collapse of the Gulf of Maine cod fishery. Science 350, 809–812 (2015).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  18. Vosooghi, S. Panic-based overfishing in transboundary fisheries. Environ. Resour. Econ. 73, 1287–1313 (2018).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Pudden, E. J. & VanderZwaag, D. L. Canada-USA bilateral fisheries management in the Gulf of Maine: under the radar screen. Rev. Eur. Community Int. Environ. Law 16, 36–44 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Adoption of the Paris Agreement FCCC/CP/2015/L.9/Rev.1 (UNFCCC, 2015).

  21. Mechler, R. et al. (eds) Loss and Damage from Climate Change: Concepts, Methods and Policy Options. Climate Risk Management, Policy and Governance 1st edn (Springer, 2019).

  22. Decisions adopted by the Conference of the Parties. Paris Agreement (UNFCCC, 2015).

  23. Maritime Boundaries Geodatabase, Version 9 (Flanders Marine Institute, 2016); http://www.marineregions.org/

Download references

Acknowledgements

We thank D. Bradley, C. Cochran, D. Flores, S. Gaines, J. Lawson and Q. Lee for comments, suggestions and references. This work was supported in part by the David and Lucile Packard Foundation (grant number 2016-65300). J.G.M. is supported by the ‘Tenure-Track System Promotion Program’ of the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) and the JSPS KAKENHI, Grant Number 19H04322.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Marine Science and Policy, University of Delaware, Newark, DE, USA

    Kimberly L. Oremus

  2. Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA

    Jennifer Bone, Christopher Costello, Tracey Mangin & James Salzman

  3. Marine Science Institute, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA

    Jennifer Bone & Tracey Mangin

  4. Arctic Research Center, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan

    Jorge García Molinos

  5. Global Station for Arctic Research, Global Institution for Collaborative Research and Education, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan

    Jorge García Molinos

  6. Graduate School of Environmental Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan

    Jorge García Molinos

  7. USDA Forest Service, Atlanta, GA, USA

    Alice Lee

Authors
  1. Kimberly L. Oremus
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Jennifer Bone
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Christopher Costello
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Jorge García Molinos
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Alice Lee
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Tracey Mangin
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. James Salzman
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

K.L.O. conceived the idea with input from all of the authors. J.G.M. developed the species loss analysis. J.G.M. and T.M. conducted the species loss analysis. K.L.O., C.C., J.S. and J.B. designed the agreement analysis. J.B., T.M. and A.L. conducted the agreements analysis. K.L.O. wrote the manuscript with input from all of the authors.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Kimberly L. Oremus.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

C.C. is on the Board of Trustees for two environmental NGOs: Environmental Defense Fund and Global Fishing Watch. The other authors declare no competing interests.

Additional information

Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

Supplementary Figs. 1 and 2, and methods.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Oremus, K.L., Bone, J., Costello, C. et al. Governance challenges for tropical nations losing fish species due to climate change. Nat Sustain 3, 277–280 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-020-0476-y

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-020-0476-y

This article is cited by

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing