Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Article
  • Published:

How conservation initiatives go to scale

Nature Sustainability volume 2, pages 935–940 (2019)Cite this article

Subjects

Abstract

Although a major portion of the planet’s land and sea is managed to conserve biodiversity, little is known about the extent, speed and patterns of adoption of conservation initiatives. We undertook a quantitative exploration of how area-based conservation initiatives go to scale by analysing the adoption of 22 widely recognized and diverse initiatives from across the globe. We use a standardized approach to compare the potential of different initiatives to reach scale. While our study is not exhaustive, our analyses reveal consistent patterns across a variety of initiatives: adoption of most initiatives (82% of our case studies) started slowly before rapidly going to scale. Consistent with diffusion of innovation theory, most initiatives exhibit slow–fast–slow (that is, sigmoidal) dynamics driven by interactions between existing and potential adopters. However, uptake rates and saturation points vary among the initiatives and across localities. Our models suggest that the uptake of most of our case studies is limited; over half of the initiatives will be taken up by <30% of their potential adopters. We also provide a methodology for quantitatively understanding the process of scaling. Our findings inform us how initiatives scale up to widespread adoption, which will facilitate forecasts of the future level of adoption of initiatives, and benchmark their extent and speed of adoption against those of our case studies.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Buy this article

  • Purchase on Springer Link
  • Instant access to full article PDF
Buy now

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Fig. 1: Location of the area-based biodiversity conservation initiatives analysed.
Fig. 2: The cumulative percentage of adopters of conservation initiatives.
Fig. 3: Slow–fast–slow models describing adoption of marine reserves by municipalities in the Philippines.
Fig. 4: Trade-off between the proportion of potential adopters predicted to adopt an initiative and the uptake rate for conservation initiatives that follow the slow–fast–slow model.

Similar content being viewed by others

Data availability

Supplementary Table 1 lists all sources of the data used to estimate the total number of potential adopters and number of adoptions for each intervention per year. The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author on request. Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to M.M.

Code availability

All code for the modelling is available on GitHub (https://github.com/MikeBode/Diffusion_of_innovation_fitting).

References

  1. Venter, O. et al. Sixteen years of change in the global terrestrial human footprint and implications for biodiversity conservation. Nat. Commun. 7, 12558 (2016).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  2. Steffen, W., Broadgate, W., Deutsch, L., Gaffney, O. & Ludwig, C. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: the great acceleration. Anthr. Rev. 2, 81–98 (2015).

    Google Scholar 

  3. Ceballos, G., Ehrlich, P. R. & Dirzo, R. Biological annihilation via the ongoing sixth mass extinction signaled by vertebrate population losses and declines. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 114, E6089–E6096 (2017).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  4. Butchart, S. H. et al. Global biodiversity: indicators of recent declines. Science 328, 1164–1168 (2010).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  5. Tittensor, D. P. et al. A mid-term analysis of progress toward international biodiversity targets. Science 346, 241–244 (2014).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  6. Potts, S. G. et al. (eds) Summary for Policymakers of the Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services on Pollinators, Pollination and Food Production (IPBES, 2016).

  7. Fox, H. E. et al. Explaining global patterns and trends in marine protected area (MPA) development. Mar. Policy 36, 1131–1138 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Radeloff, V. C. et al. Hot moments for biodiversity conservation. Conserv. Lett. 6, 58–65 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Mascia, M. B. & Mills, M. When conservation goes viral: the diffusion of innovative biodiversity conservation policies and practices. Conserv. Lett. 11, e12442 (2018).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Midgley, D. F. A simple mathematical theory of innovative behavior. J. Consum. Res. 3, 31–41 (1976).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Rogers, E. M. Diffusion of Innovations (Simon and Schuster, 2010).

  12. Meskell, L., Liuzza, C., Bertacchini, E. & Saccone, D. Multilateralism and UNESCO World Heritage: decision-making, States Parties and political processes. Int. J. Herit. Stud. 21, 423–440 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Fa’asili, U. & Taua, A. Review of the Village Fisheries Management Plans of the Extension Programme in Samoa (Secretariat of the Pacific Community, 2001).

  14. Jupiter, S. D., Cohen, P. J., Weeks, R., Tawake, A. & Govan, H. Locally-managed marine areas: multiple objectives and diverse strategies. Pac. Conserv. Biol. 20, 165–179 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Greenhalgh, T., Robert, G., Macfarlane, F., Bate, P. & Kyriakidou, O. Diffusion of innovations in service organizations: systematic review and recommendations. Milbank Q. 82, 581–629 (2004).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Alcala, A. C. & Russ, G. R. No-take marine reserves and reef fisheries management in the Philippines: a new people power revolution. AMBIO 35, 245–254 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Lowry, G., White, A. & Christie, P. Scaling up to networks of marine protected areas in the Philippines: biophysical, legal, institutional, and social considerations. Coast. Manag. 37, 274–290 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Kuehne, G. et al. Predicting farmer uptake of new agricultural practices: a tool for research, extension and policy. Agric. Syst. 156, 115–125 (2017).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Butchart, S. H. et al. Shortfalls and solutions for meeting national and global conservation area targets. Conserv. Lett. 8, 329–337 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Gelcich, S. et al. Alternative strategies for scaling up marine coastal biodiversity conservation in Chile. Marit. Stud. 14, 5 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Horigue, V., Aliño, P. M., White, A. T. & Pressey, R. L. Marine protected area networks in the Philippines:trends and challenges for establishment and governance. Ocean Coast. Manag. 64, 15–26 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Gelcich, S. et al. Fishers’ perceptions on the Chilean coastal TURF system after two decades: problems, benefits, and emerging needs. Bull. Mar. Sci. 93, 53–67 (2017).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Pietri, D., Christie, P., Pollnac, R. B., Diaz, R. & Sabonsolin, A. Information diffusion in two marine protected area networks in the Central Visayas Region, Philippines. Coast. Manag. 37, 331–348 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Ostrom, E. Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action (Cambridge Univ. Press, 1990).

  25. Cox, M., Arnold, G. & Tomás, S. V. A review of design principles for community-based natural resource management. Ecol. Soc. 15, 38 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Cinner, J. E. et al. Bright spots among the world’s coral reefs. Nature 535, 416 (2016).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  27. Price, D. J. Little Science, Big Science … and Beyond (Columbia Univ. Press, 1986).

  28. Watson, J. E., Dudley, N., Segan, D. B. & Hockings, M. The performance and potential of protected areas. Nature 515, 67 (2014).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  29. Bernhardt, E. S. et al. Synthesizing U.S. river restoration efforts. Science 5722, 636–637 (2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. Wolfe, R. A. Organizational innovation: review, critique and suggested research directions. J. Manag. Stud. 31, 405–431 (1994).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Lahiri, S. N. Resampling Methods for Dependent Data (Springer Science & Business Media, 2013).

  32. Burnham, K. P., Anderson, D. R. & Huyvaert, K. P. AIC model selection and multimodel inference in behavioral ecology: some background, observations, and comparisons. Behav. Ecol. Sociobiol. 65, 23–35 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions funded the workshop at the International Congress for Conservation Biology 2015 in Montpellier, France. We thank the Fiji LMMA Network for Fiji data, the CTI Atlas for Solomon Islands data and the Philippines Marine Protected Area Support Network for permission to use their MPA Database. We thank T. Blomley for permission to use his data on joint and community-based forest management, and S. Pailler for data on wildlife management areas. M.M. thanks J. Muntifering and B. Morkel for input. S.G. thanks Conicyt FB0002 and FONDECYT 1190109. R.W. thanks the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies. M.M., M.B.M. and L.G. thank the Margaret A. Cargill Foundation.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Ascot, UK

    Morena Mills

  2. Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland, Australia

    Morena Mills, Carla L. Archibald, Cristina Romero-de-Diego, Matthew Holden & Duan Biggs

  3. Australian Research Council, Centre of Excellence in Environmental Decisions, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland, Australia

    Morena Mills, Carla L. Archibald, Cristina Romero-de-Diego & Hugh P. Possingham

  4. School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia

    Michael Bode

  5. Moore Center for Science, Conservation International, Arlington, VA, USA

    Michael B. Mascia

  6. Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia

    Rebecca Weeks

  7. Center of Applied Ecology and Sustainability and Center for the Study of Multiple Drivers on Marine Socio-Ecological Systems, Departamento de Ecologia, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile

    Stefan Gelcich

  8. Equilibrium Research, Bristol, UK

    Nigel Dudley

  9. School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Queensland, St Lucia, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia

    Nigel Dudley, Carla L. Archibald & Cristina Romero-de-Diego

  10. School of Government, Development and International Affairs, The University of the South Pacific, Suva, Fiji

    Hugh Govan

  11. Centre for Applications in Natural Resource Mathematics, School of Mathematics and Physics, University of Queensland, StLucia, Queensland, Australia

    Matthew Holden

  12. Environmental Futures Research Institute, Griffith University, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia

    Duan Biggs

  13. Department of Conservation Ecology and Entomology, Stellenbosch University, Matieland, South Africa

    Duan Biggs

  14. Centre for Complex Systems in Transition, School of Public Leadership, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa

    Duan Biggs

  15. Global Science, World Wildlife Fund, Washington, DC, USA

    Louise Glew

  16. World Wildlife Fund, Washington, DC, USA

    Robin Naidoo

  17. The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA, USA

    Hugh P. Possingham

Authors
  1. Morena Mills
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Michael Bode
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Michael B. Mascia
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Rebecca Weeks
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Stefan Gelcich
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Nigel Dudley
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. Hugh Govan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  8. Carla L. Archibald
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  9. Cristina Romero-de-Diego
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  10. Matthew Holden
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  11. Duan Biggs
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  12. Louise Glew
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  13. Robin Naidoo
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  14. Hugh P. Possingham
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

M.M., M.B., M.B.M. and H.P.P. conceived the idea and led the study design. M.M., R.W., S.G., N.D., H.G., C.L.A., C.R., L.G. and R.N. collected and collated quantitative data. M.M., M.B. and M.H. conducted the analysis. All authors drafted, reviewed and edited the paper.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Morena Mills.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Additional information

Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Supplementary Information

Supplementary Information

Supplementary Figs. 1–6, Table 3 and references.

Supplementary Dataset 1.

Supplementary Tables 1, 2, 4 and 5.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Mills, M., Bode, M., Mascia, M.B. et al. How conservation initiatives go to scale. Nat Sustain 2, 935–940 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0384-1

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0384-1

This article is cited by

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing Anthropocene

Sign up for the Nature Briefing: Anthropocene newsletter — what matters in anthropocene research, free to your inbox weekly.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing: Anthropocene