Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Analysis
  • Published:

Food production shocks across land and sea

Nature Sustainability volume 2, pages 130–137 (2019)Cite this article

Subjects

Abstract

Sudden losses to food production (that is, shocks) and their consequences across land and sea pose cumulative threats to global sustainability. We conducted an integrated assessment of global production data from crop, livestock, aquaculture and fisheries sectors over 53 years to understand how shocks occurring in one food sector can create diverse and linked challenges among others. We show that some regions are shock hotspots, exposed frequently to shocks across multiple sectors. Critically, shock frequency has increased through time on land and sea at a global scale. Geopolitical and extreme-weather events were the main shock drivers identified, but with considerable differences across sectors. We illustrate how social and ecological drivers, influenced by the dynamics of the food system, can spill over multiple food sectors and create synchronous challenges or trade-offs among terrestrial and aquatic systems. In a more shock-prone and interconnected world, bold food policy and social protection mechanisms that help people anticipate, cope with and recover from losses will be central to sustainability.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Buy this article

  • Purchase on SpringerLink
  • Instant access to full article PDF
Buy now

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Fig. 1: Trends in food production shock frequency in crop, livestock, fisheries and aquaculture sectors from 1961–2013.
Fig. 2: Drivers of food production shocks.
Fig. 3: Heat map of shock co-occurrence across terrestrial and aquatic food sectors through time.
Fig. 4: Case studies of shock spillover, trade-offs, and co-occurrence across terrestrial and aquatic sectors.

Similar content being viewed by others

Data availability

Crop and livestock production data were accessed through FAOSTAT (http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/). For marine fisheries production, we used the published dataset by Watson54 at https://www.nature.com/articles/sdata201739. Aquaculture and inland fisheries data were extracted from global production datasets using FishStat software (www.fao.org/fishery/topic/166235/en). All code and data products used for analyses in this study are publicly available through a GitHub repository (https://github.com/cottrellr/shocks). All data that support this study are available from the corresponding author on request.

References

  1. Transforming our World: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (United Nations General Assembly, 2015).

  2. Gephart, J. A., Deutsch, L., Pace, M. L., Troell, M. & Seekell, D. A. Shocks to fish production: identification, trends, and consequences. Glob. Environ. Change 42, 24–32 (2017).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Seekell, D. et al. Resilience in the global food system. Environ. Res. Lett. 12, 025010 (2017).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. T he State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World (FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP & WHO, 2017).

  5. Tadesse, G., Algieri, B., Kalkuhl, M. & von Braun, J. Drivers and triggers of international food price spikes and volatility. Food Policy 47, 117–128 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Marchand, P. et al. Reserves and trade jointly determine exposure to food supply shocks. Environ. Res. Lett. 11, 095009 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Buhaug, H., Benjaminsen, T. A., Sjaastad, E. & Theisen, O. M. Climate variability, food production shocks, and violent conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa. Environ. Res. Lett. 10, 125015 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Dabbadie, L. et al. in Impacts of Climate Change on Fisheries and Aquaculture: Synthesis of Current Knowledge, Adaptation and Mitigation Options (eds Barange, M. et al.) 449–464 (FAO, 2018).

  9. Selkoe, K. A. et al. Principles for managing marine ecosystems prone to tipping points. Ecosyst. Health Sustain. 1, 1–18 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. IPCC Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (eds McCarthy, J. J., Canziani, O. F., Leary, N. A., Dokken, D. J. & White, K. S.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2001).

  11. Fisher, B. et al. Integrating fisheries and agricultural programs for food security. Agric. Food Secur. 6, 1 (2017).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Blanchard, J. L. et al. Linked sustainability challenges and trade-offs among fisheries, aquaculture and agriculture. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 1, 1240–1249 (2017).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Sartori, M. & Schiavo, S. Connected we stand: a network perspective on trade and global food security. Food Policy 57, 114–127 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Lesk, C., Rowhani, P. & Ramankutty, N. Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production. Nature 529, 84–87 (2016).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  15. Rao, M. P. et al. Dzuds, droughts, and livestock mortality in Mongolia. Environ. Res. Lett. 10, 074012 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Liu, J. et al. Framing sustainability in a telecoupled world. Ecol. Soc. 18, 26 (2013).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  17. Perry, B. D., Grace, D. & Sones, K. Current drivers and future directions of global livestock disease dynamics. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 110, 20871–20877 (2013).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  18. Cottrell, R. S. et al. Considering land-sea interactions and trade-offs for food and biodiversity. Glob. Change Biol. 24, 580–596 (2018).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Froehlich, H. E., Runge, C. A., Gentry, R. R., Gaines, S. D. & Halpern, B. S. Comparative terrestrial feed and land use of an aquaculture-dominant world. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 115, 5295–5300 (2018).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  20. Galaz, V., Gars, J., Moberg, F., Nykvist, B. & Repinski, C. Why ecologists should care about financial markets. Trends Ecol. Evol. 30, 571–580 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Nutrition Country Profile: Republic of Albania (FAO, 2005).

  22. Moutopoulos, D., Bradshaw, B. & Pauly, D. Reconstruction of Albania Fishery Catches by Fishing Gear Working Paper 2015-12 (Fisheries Centre, 2015).

  23. Cobani, M. National Aquaculture Sector Overview: Albania (FAO, 2015); http://www.fao.org/fishery/countrysector/naso_albania/en

  24. Noland, M. Famine and reform in North Korea. Asian Econ. Pap. 3, 1–40 (2004).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Noland, M., Robinson, S. & Wang, T. Famine in North Korea: causes and cures. Econ. Dev. Cult. Change 49, 741–767 (2001).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Kimenyi, M. et al. The Impact of Conflict and Political Instability on Agricultural Investments in Mali and Nigeria Working Paper 17 (Africa Growth Initiative, 2014).

  27. Matthews, A. Trade rules, food security and the multilateral trade negotiations. Eur. Rev. Agric. Econ. 41, 511–535 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to Afghanistan (FAO, 2002).

  29. Ramdeen, R., Harper, S. & Zeller, D. In Fisheries Catch Reconstructions: Islands Volume 22 Part IV 33–41 (Fisheries Centre Research Reports, Univ. British Columbia, 2014).

  30. Mohan, P. The economic impact of hurricanes on bananas: a case study of Dominica using synthetic control methods. Food Policy 68, 21–30 (2017).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Belhabib, D., Dridi, R., Padilla, A., Ang, M. & Le, P. Impacts of anthropogenic and natural “extreme events” on global fisheries. Fish Fish. 19, 1092–1109 (2018).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Bayer, A. M. et al. The 1997–1998 El Niño as an unforgettable phenomenon in northern Peru: a qualitative study. Disasters 38, 351–374 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  33. Schwarz, L. National Aquaculture Sector Overview: Ecuador (FAO, 2005); http://www.fao.org/fishery/countrysector/naso_ecuador/en

  34. Lafferty, K. D. et al. Infectious diseases affect marine fisheries and aquaculture economics. Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci. 7, 471–496 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  35. Allison, E. & Ellis, F. The livelihoods approach and management of small-scale fisheries. Mar. Policy 25, 377–388 (2001).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  36. Van Ginkel, M. et al. An integrated agro-ecosystem and livelihood systems approach for the poor and vulnerable in dry areas. Food Secur. 5, 751–767 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  37. Brashares, J. S. et al. Bushmeat hunting, wildlife declines, and fish supply in West Africa. Science 306, 1180–1183 (2004).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  38. Bragina, E. V. et al. Rapid declines of large mammal populations after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Conserv. Biol. 29, 844–853 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  39. Suweis, S. et al. Resilience and reactivity of global food security. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 112, 6902–6907 (2015).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  40. Puma, M. J., Bose, S., Chon, S. Y. & Cook, B. I. Assessing the evolving fragility of the global food system. Environ. Res. Lett. 10, 024007 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  41. Tamea, S., Laio, F. & Ridolfi, L. Global effects of local food-production crises: a virtual water perspective. Sci. Rep. 6, 18803 (2016).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  42. Gephart, J. A., Rovenskaya, E., Dieckmann, U., Pace, M. L. & Brännström, Å. Vulnerability to shocks in the global seafood trade network. Environ. Res. Lett. 11, 035008 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  43. Lipper, L. et al. Climate-smart agriculture for food security. Nat. Clim. Change 4, 1068–1072 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  44. ViEWS: a Political Violence Early-Warning System (Uppsala Universitet, 2017); http://www.pcr.uu.se/research/views/

  45. Devereaux, S. Social protection for enhanced food security in sub-Saharan Africa. Food Policy 60, 56–72 (2016).

    Google Scholar 

  46. Khan, Z. R. et al. Achieving food security for one million sub-Saharan African poor through push–pull innovation by 2020. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 369, 20120284 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  47. Hazell, P. B. R. & Hess, U. Drought insurance for agricultural development and food security in dryland areas. Food Secur. 2, 395–405 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  48. Cai, W. et al. Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming. Nat. Clim. Change 4, 111–116 (2014).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  49. Marshall, A. Drought-tolerant varieties begin global march. Nat. Biotech. 32, 308 (2014).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  50. Fisher, M. et al. Drought tolerant maize for farmer adaptation to drought in sub-Saharan Africa: determinants of adoption in eastern and southern Africa. Clim. Change 133, 283–299 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  51. Stentiford, G. D. et al. New paradigms to help solve the global aquaculture disease crisis. PLoS Pathog. 13, 1–6 (2017).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  52. FAOSTAT (FAO, 2017); http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data

  53. FishStatJ—Fisheries and Aquaculture Software for Fisheries Statistical Time Series (FAO, 2017).

  54. Watson, R. A. A database of global marine commercial, small-scale, illegal and unreported fisheries catch 1950–2014. Sci. Data 4, 170039 (2017).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  55. Maritime Boundaries Geodatabase v.10 (Flanders Marine Institute, 2018); https://doi.org/10.14284/312

  56. R Core Development Team R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, 2017).

  57. Milich, L. Resource mismanagement versus sustainable livelihoods: the collapse of the Newfoundland cod fishery. Soc. Nat. Resour. 12, 625–642 (1999).

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The authors acknowledge funding and intellectual support from the Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, and R.S.C. acknowledges funding from the CSIRO-UTAS Quantitative Marine Science Program and Australian Training Program.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia

    Richard S. Cottrell, Kirsty L. Nash, Aysha Fleming, Elizabeth A. Fulton, Sara Hornborg, Reg A. Watson & Julia L. Blanchard

  2. Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia

    Richard S. Cottrell, Kirsty L. Nash, Stuart P. Corney, Sara Hornborg, Alexandra Johne, Reg A. Watson & Julia L. Blanchard

  3. National Centre for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, USA

    Benjamin S. Halpern

  4. Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, USA

    Benjamin S. Halpern

  5. Imperial College London, Ascot, UK

    Benjamin S. Halpern

  6. Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia

    Tomas A. Remenyi

  7. CSIRO Land and Water, Hobart, Australia

    Aysha Fleming

  8. CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Australia

    Elizabeth A. Fulton & Sara Hornborg

  9. Agrifood and Bioscience, RISE Research Institutes of Sweden, Gothenburg, Sweden

    Sara Hornborg

Authors
  1. Richard S. Cottrell
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Kirsty L. Nash
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Benjamin S. Halpern
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Tomas A. Remenyi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Stuart P. Corney
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Aysha Fleming
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. Elizabeth A. Fulton
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  8. Sara Hornborg
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  9. Alexandra Johne
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  10. Reg A. Watson
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  11. Julia L. Blanchard
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

R.S.C., J.L.B., K.L.N. and B.S.H. designed the study. R.S.C. conducted the analysis and wrote the paper. T.A.R. assisted with the figures. A.J. assisted with qualitative analysis of shock drivers. All authors contributed to development of the paper through methodological advice, comments and edits of the text and figures.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Richard S. Cottrell.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Additional information

Publisher’s note: Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

Supplementary Notes, Supplementary Methods, Supplementary Figures 1–5, Supplementary Table 1 Legend, Supplementary References 1–182

Supplementary Table 1

Data table with detailed information for each shock including location (region, sub-region and country), year, food sector, magnitude, recovery time, driver description and category, and co-occurrence

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Cottrell, R.S., Nash, K.L., Halpern, B.S. et al. Food production shocks across land and sea. Nat Sustain 2, 130–137 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-018-0210-1

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-018-0210-1

This article is cited by

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing Anthropocene

Sign up for the Nature Briefing: Anthropocene newsletter — what matters in anthropocene research, free to your inbox weekly.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing: Anthropocene