Article | Published:

Socio-economic consequences of post-disaster reconstruction in hazard-exposed areas

Nature Sustainabilityvolume 1pages3843 (2018) | Download Citation

Abstract

With coastal populations growing and sea levels rising, reconstruction decisions after coastal disasters are increasingly consequential determinants of future societal vulnerability and thus the sustainability of development. The humanitarian sector tends to favour rebuilding in-place to avoid the social disruptions of mass relocation, yet evidence on what affected people want is mixed. Using the case of post-tsunami Banda Aceh, Indonesia, we investigate whether a policy to rebuild in-place in the disaster-affected area suits an urban population that was previously unaware of the hazard. We show that following the tsunami, a substantial proportion of the population prefers to live farther from the coast. This has caused a new price premium for inland properties and socio-economic sorting of poorer households into coastal areas. These findings show that offering reconstruction aid predominantly within a hazard-exposed area can inadvertently transfer disaster risk to the poor.

Access optionsAccess options

Rent or Buy article

Get time limited or full article access on ReadCube.

from$8.99

All prices are NET prices.

Additional information

Publisher’s note: Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

References

  1. 1.

    Rodriguez-Oreggia, E., de la Fuente, A., de la Torre, R. & Moreno, H. A. Natural disasters, human development and poverty at the municipal level in Mexico. J. Dev. Stud. 49, 442–455 (2013).

  2. 2.

    Anttila-Hughes, J. K. & Hsiang, S. M. Destruction, Disinvestment, and Death: Economic and Human Losses Following Environmental Disaster (2013); https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2220501.

  3. 3.

    Kousky, C. Informing climate adaptation: a review of the economic costs of natural disasters. Energy Econ. 46, 576–592 (2014).

  4. 4.

    Hsiang, S. M. & Jina, A. S. The Causal Effect of Environmental Catastrophe on Long-Run Economic Growth: Evidence from 6,700 Cyclones Working Paper No. 20352 (NBER, 2014).

  5. 5.

    Skidmore, M. & Toya, H. Do natural disasters promote long-term growth? Econ. Inq. 40, 664–687 (2002).

  6. 6.

    Carter, M. R., Little, P. D. & Mogues, T. Poverty traps and natural disasters in Ethiopia and Honduras. World Dev. 35, 835–856 (2007).

  7. 7.

    Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 (UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, 2015).

  8. 8.

    Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 (UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, 2015).

  9. 9.

    Cernea, M. The risks and reconstruction model for resettling displaced populations. World Dev. 25, 1569–1587 (1997).

  10. 10.

    Oliver-Smith, A. Successes and failures in post-disaster resettlement. Disasters 15, 12–23 (1991).

  11. 11.

    Patt, A. & Schroter, D. Perceptions of climate risk in Mozambique: implications for the success of adaptation strategies. Glob. Environ. Change 18, 458–467 (2008).

  12. 12.

    Boano, C. Housing anxiety and multiple geographies in post-tsunami Sri Lanka. Disasters 33, 762–785 (2009).

  13. 13.

    Ingram, J. C., Franco, G., Rio, C. Rdel & Khazai, B. Post-disaster recovery dilemmas: challenges in balancing short-term and long-term needs for vulnerability reduction. Environ. Sci. Policy 9, 607–613 (2006).

  14. 14.

    Land and Natural Disasters: Guidance for Practitioners (UN-HABITAT, Nairobi, 2010).

  15. 15.

    Jha, A. K., Barenstein, J. D., Phelps, P. M., Pittet, D. & Sena, S. Safer Homes, Stronger Communities: A Handbook for Reconstructing After Natural Disasters (World Bank, Washington DC, 2010).

  16. 16.

    Piguet, E., Pecoud, A. & de Guchteneire, P. Migration and Climate Change. (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 2011).

  17. 17.

    Hunter, L. M., Luna, J. K. & Norton, R. M. Environmental dimensions of migration. Annu. Rev. Sociol. 41, 377–397 (2015).

  18. 18.

    Gray, C. L. & Mueller, V. Natural disasters and population mobility in Bangladesh. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 109, 6000–6005 (2012).

  19. 19.

    Bohra-Mishra, P., Oppenheimer, M. & Hsiang, S. M. Nonlinear permanent migration response to climatic variations but minimal response to disasters. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 111, 9780–9785 (2014).

  20. 20.

    Cronin, V. & Guthrie, P. Community-led resettlement: From a flood-affected slum to a new society in Pune, India. Environ. Hazards 10, 310–326 (2011).

  21. 21.

    Barenstein, J. D. & Rojas Rivas, B. M. in Post-Disaster Reconstruction and Change: Communities’ Perspectives (eds. Barenstein, J. D. & Leeman, E.) 300–323 (CRC, Boca Raton, 2012).

  22. 22.

    de Vries, D. H. & Fraser, J. C. Citizenship rights and voluntary decision making in post-disaster U.S. floodplain buyout mitigation programs. Int. J. Mass Emerg. Disasters 30, 1–33 (2012).

  23. 23.

    Binder, S. B., Baker, C. K. & Barile, J. P. Rebuild or relocate? Resilience and postdisaster decision-making after Hurricane Sandy. Am. J. Commun. Psychol. 56, 180–196 (2015).

  24. 24.

    Adams, H. Why populations persist: mobility, place attachment and climate change. Popul. Environ. 37, 429–448 (2016).

  25. 25.

    Brookshire, D. S., Thayer, M. A., Tschirhart, J. & Schulze, W. D. A test of the expected utility model: evidence from earthquake risks. J. Polit. Econ. 93, 369–389 (1985).

  26. 26.

    Bernknopf, R. L., Brookshire, D. S. & Thayer, M. A. Earthquake and volcano hazard notices: an economic evaluation of changes in risk perceptions. J. Environ. Econ. Manage. 18, 35–49 (1990).

  27. 27.

    Naoi, M., Seko, M. & Sumita, K. Earthquake risk and housing prices in Japan: evidence before and after massive earthquakes. Reg. Sci. Urban Econ. 39, 658–669 (2009).

  28. 28.

    Onder, Z., Dokmeci, V. & Keskin, B. The impact of public perception of earthquake risk on Istanbul’s housing market. J. Real Estate Lit 12, 181–104 (2004).

  29. 29.

    Carbone, J. C., Hallstrom, D. G. & Smith, V. K. Can natural experiments measure behavioral responses to environmental risks? Environ. Resour. Econ. 33, 273–297 (2006).

  30. 30.

    Bin, O. & Landry, C. E. Changes in implicit flood risk premiums: Empirical evidence from the housing market. J. Environ. Econ. Manage. 65, 361–376 (2013).

  31. 31.

    Smith, V. K., Carbone, J. C., Pope, J. C., Hallstrom, D. G. & Darden, M. E. Adjusting to natural disasters. J. Risk Uncertainty 33, 37–54 (2006).

  32. 32.

    Lall, S. V. & Deichmann, U. Density and disasters: economics of urban hazard risk. World Bank Res. Obs. 27, 74–105 (2010).

  33. 33.

    Chan, N. W. Choice and constraints in floodplain occupation: the influence of structural factors on residential location in peninsular Malaysia. Disasters 19, 287–307 (1995).

  34. 34.

    Wisner, B., Blaikie, P., Cannon, T. & Davis, I. At Risk: Natural Hazards, People’s Vulnerability and Disasters (Routledge, London/New York, 2003).

  35. 35.

    Bankoff, G. Cultures of Disaster: Society and Natural Hazard in the Philippines (Routledge, London/New York, 2003).

  36. 36.

    Black, R., Arnell, N. W., Adger, W. N., Thomas, D. & Geddes, A. Migration, immobility and displacement outcomes following extreme events. Environ. Sci. Policy 27, S32–S43 (2013).

  37. 37.

    Fussell, E. The long-term recovery of New Orleans’ population After Hurricane Katrina. Am. Behav. Sci. 59, 1231–1245 (2015).

  38. 38.

    Lavigne, F. et al. Reconstruction of tsunami inland propagation on December 26, 2004 in Banda Aceh, Indonesia, through field investigations. Pure Appl. Geophys. 166, 259–281 (2009).

  39. 39.

    IPCC Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds. Stocker, T. F. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 2013).

  40. 40.

    Frankenberg, E., Gillespie, T., Preston, S., Sikoki, B. & Thomas, D. Mortality, the family and the Indian Ocean Tsunami. Econ. J. 121, 162–182 (2011).

  41. 41.

    Finance: The Seven Keys to Effective Aid Management (The Executing Agency of Rehabilitation and Reconstruction for Aceh and Nias (BRR NAD-NIAS), Banda Aceh, 2009).

  42. 42.

    Master Plan for Rehabilitation and Reconstruction for the Regions and People of the Province of Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam and Nias Islands of the Province of North Sumatra (Ministry of National Development Planning (BAPPENAS), Jakarta, 2005).

  43. 43.

    I threw out the Aceh Master Plan. Tempo 26–27 (25 December 2014).

  44. 44.

    McCaughey, J. W., Mundir, I., Daly, P., Mahdi, S. & Patt, A. Trust and distrust of tsunami vertical evacuation buildings: extending protection motivation theory to examine choices under social influence. Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct. 24, 462–473 (2017).

  45. 45.

    The Study on the Urgent Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Support Program for Aceh Province and Affected Areas in North Sumatra (JICA, BAPPENAS & Provincial Government of Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam, Tokyo and Banda Aceh, 2005).

  46. 46.

    Consumer Price Index (World Bank, accessed 4 April 2017); http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.

  47. 48.

    NIST/SEMATECH e-Handbook of Statistical Methods Ch. 7.4.7.4 (NIST/SEMATECH); http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/prc/section4/prc474.htm.

  48. 47.

    R Core Team R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, 2013).

Download references

Acknowledgements

This research is supported by the National Research Foundation Singapore and the Singapore Ministry of Education under the Research Centres of Excellence initiative. This work was funded by the Earth Observatory of Singapore (EOS) and is EOS Contribution Number 132. The International Centre for Aceh and Indian Ocean Studies facilitated this research in collaboration with Syiah Kuala University. Nizamuddin, Ardiansyah and M. Affan carried out geospatial analyses. Hayatullah, N. Anwar, Z. Ak, A. Uzia, C. Murnita, F. Nailufar, Fitriani, I. Fitria, Israyani, Jihan, Safrina and S. Tahir helped to refine research instruments and carried out field research. N. Elviera, I. Fitria, J. Yong, R. Zahara, S. Novita and D. Hundlani assisted with data management and verification. E. Maida, C. Dian Fitri and I. Arisandy provided operational support. P. Adamek provided comments on the manuscript.

Author information

Affiliations

  1. Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore

    • Jamie W. McCaughey
    •  & Patrick Daly
  2. Institute for Environmental Decisions, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland

    • Jamie W. McCaughey
    •  & Anthony Patt
  3. International Centre for Aceh and Indian Ocean Studies, Banda Aceh, Indonesia

    • Ibnu Mundir
  4. Department of Statistics, Syiah Kuala University, Banda Aceh, Indonesia

    • Saiful Mahdi

Authors

  1. Search for Jamie W. McCaughey in:

  2. Search for Patrick Daly in:

  3. Search for Ibnu Mundir in:

  4. Search for Saiful Mahdi in:

  5. Search for Anthony Patt in:

Contributions

J.W.M., I.M., P.D. and A.P. designed the research. S.M. designed the sampling strategy. J.W.M. and I.M. carried out the research and analysed the data. All authors contributed to writing the manuscript.

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jamie W. McCaughey.

Electronic supplementary material

  1. Supplementary Information

    Supplementary Information Notes on methods and additional figures and tables

About this article

Publication history

Received

Accepted

Published

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-017-0002-z

Further reading