# Table 1 Left block: parameters fitted from the first wave. Right block: median peak time of the second wave for the 5 typologies (cases a–e) we use in the simulations, with 1 standard deviation. For cases (a–c), the median and error only take into account the 100 simulations, differing by randomly generated matrices $$k_{ij}$$. For case (d), we include a variation of $$15\%$$ in the $$\gamma _i$$’s for all countries with respect to case (a). For case (e), we include the interval spanned by varying the $$\gamma _i$$’s within $$10\%$$ from the fitted values, where the results marked with an asterisk correspond to the tuned countries with a beginning of second wave, as of the 5th of August, 2020.

First wave parameters Second wave simulations: peak timing (calendar weeks 2020)
a $$\gamma$$ Case a Case b Case c Case d Case e
Austria $$7.463\pm 0.007$$ $$0.99\pm 0.025$$ $$30.4\pm 0.4$$ $$32.4\pm 0.5$$ $$34.7\pm 0.5$$ $$30.6\pm 0.9$$ $$34.8+0.9-0.7$$
Belgium $$8.53\pm 0.02$$ $$0.55\pm 0.02$$ $$34.6\pm 0.7$$ $$37.9\pm 0.6$$ $$41.4\pm 0.5$$ $$34.9\pm 1.4$$ $$33.8^*+0.8-0.7$$
Bosnia $$7.88\pm 0.024$$ $$0.41\pm 0.02$$ $$33.9\pm 0.6$$ $$37.4\pm 0.5$$ $$41.0\pm 0.5$$ $$34.0\pm 1.1$$ $$33.4^*+0.7-0.6$$
Croatia $$6.268\pm 0.007$$ $$0.71\pm 0.02$$ $$30.9\pm 0.6$$ $$33.5\pm 0.7$$ $$36.6\pm 0.7$$ $$31.1\pm 1.0$$ $$27.7^*+0.1-0.1$$
Czechia $$9.085\pm 0.014$$ $$0.56\pm 0.03$$ $$33.5\pm 0.7$$ $$36.8\pm 0.6$$ $$40.2\pm 0.5$$ $$33.7\pm 1.2$$ $$32.7^*+0.6-0.5$$
Denmark $$7.667\pm 0.008$$ $$0.40\pm 0.01$$ $$35.6\pm 0.6$$ $$39.2\pm 0.5$$ $$42.7\pm 0.5$$ $$35.8\pm 1.2$$ $$39.9+1.3-1.1$$
Finland $$7.190\pm 0.005$$ $$0.385\pm 0.006$$ $$35.4\pm 0.6$$ $$39.0\pm 0.5$$ $$42.5\pm 0.5$$ $$35.7\pm 1.2$$ $$39.8+1.3-1.1$$
France $$7.711\pm 0.006$$ $$0.58\pm 0.012$$ $$36.0\pm 0.6$$ $$39.3\pm 0.5$$ $$42.6\pm 0.4$$ $$36.3\pm 1.4$$ $$41.1+1.4-1.2$$
Germany $$7.679\pm 0.007$$ $$0.62\pm 0.02$$ $$35.8\pm 0.6$$ $$39.0\pm 0.5$$ $$42.3\pm 0.5$$ $$36.1\pm 1.5$$ $$39.9+1.4-1.1$$
Greece $$5.537\pm 0.009$$ $$0.57\pm 0.02$$ $$32.5\pm 0.6$$ $$35.8\pm 0.5$$ $$39.2\pm 0.4$$ $$32.7\pm 1.0$$ $$31.7^*+0.6-0.5$$
Hungary $$6.022\pm 0.009$$ $$0.47\pm 0.01$$ $$33.9\pm 0.6$$ $$37.4\pm 0.5$$ $$40.9\pm 0.5$$ $$34.2\pm 1.0$$ $$38.1+1.1-0.9$$
Ireland $$8.580\pm 0.008$$ $$0.60\pm 0.02$$ $$33.1\pm 0.7$$ $$36.1\pm 0.7$$ $$39.5\pm 0.6$$ $$33.4\pm 1.2$$ $$36.6+1.0-0.9$$
Italy $$8.304\pm 0.004$$ $$0.429\pm 0.008$$ $$39.1\pm 0.6$$ $$42.8\pm 0.4$$ $$46.1\pm 0.5$$ $$39.5\pm 1.7$$ $$43.9+1.7-1.4$$
Netherlands $$7.904\pm 0.005$$ $$0.525\pm 0.008$$ $$35.2\pm 0.7$$ $$38.6\pm 0.6$$ $$42.1\pm 0.5$$ $$35.5\pm 1.3$$ $$34.3^*+0.9-0.7$$
Norway $$7.356\pm 0.006$$ $$0.58\pm 0.02$$ $$32.7\pm 0.6$$ $$35.8\pm 0.7$$ $$39.3\pm 0.6$$ $$32.9\pm 1.0$$ $$36.4+1.0-0.8$$
Poland $$7.13\pm 0.03$$ $$0.182\pm 0.007$$ $$45.7\pm 0.5$$ $$49.3\pm 0.6$$ $$52.6\pm 0.6$$ $$46.2\pm 1.7$$ $$54.6+2.7-2.2$$
Portugal $$10.323\pm 0.014$$ $$0.517\pm 0.022$$ $$34.7\pm 0.7$$ $$38.1\pm 0.6$$ $$41.6\pm 0.5$$ $$35.0\pm 1.4$$ $$38.7+1.2-1.0$$
Serbia $$9.323\pm 0.012$$ $$0.628\pm 0.017$$ $$32.6\pm 0.6$$ $$35.6\pm 0.6$$ $$38.9\pm 0.5$$ $$34.0\pm 1.1$$ $$29.2^*+0.3-0.3$$
Slovakia $$5.67\pm 0.02$$ $$0.59\pm 0.04$$ $$31.7\pm 0.7$$ $$34.8\pm 0.7$$ $$38.2\pm 0.6$$ $$31.9\pm 1.0$$ $$30.7^*+0.5-0.4$$
Slovenia $$7.299\pm 0.007$$ $$0.656\pm 0.017$$ $$30.7\pm 0.6$$ $$33.5\pm 0.7$$ $$36.7\pm 0.6$$ $$30.9\pm 0.9$$ $$29.7^*+0.3-0.3$$
Spain $$8.747\pm 0.008$$ $$0.46\pm 0.01$$ $$38.2\pm 0.7$$ $$41.8\pm 0.5$$ $$45.2\pm 0.5$$ $$38.5\pm 1.8$$ $$33.8^*+0.8-0.7$$
Sweden $$11.56\pm 0.04$$ $$0.162\pm 0.008$$ $$47.8\pm 0.5$$ $$51.3\pm 0.5$$ $$54.6\pm 0.6$$ $$48.3\pm 2.2$$ $$55.8+2.9-2.4$$
Switzerland $$8.196\pm 0.003$$ $$0.72\pm 0.01$$ $$32.4\pm 0.6$$ $$35.1\pm 0.7$$ $$38.1\pm 0.7$$ $$32.6\pm 1.2$$ $$35.8+1.0-0.8$$
UK $$8.353\pm 0.007$$ $$0.368\pm 0.007$$ $$41.0\pm 0.6$$ $$44.6\pm 0.4$$ $$48.0\pm 0.5$$ $$41.3\pm 1.9$$ $$46.2+2.0-1.6$$