Table 1 Left block: parameters fitted from the first wave. Right block: median peak time of the second wave for the 5 typologies (cases a–e) we use in the simulations, with 1 standard deviation. For cases (a–c), the median and error only take into account the 100 simulations, differing by randomly generated matrices \(k_{ij}\). For case (d), we include a variation of \(15\%\) in the \(\gamma _i\)’s for all countries with respect to case (a). For case (e), we include the interval spanned by varying the \(\gamma _i\)’s within \(10\%\) from the fitted values, where the results marked with an asterisk correspond to the tuned countries with a beginning of second wave, as of the 5th of August, 2020.

From: Second wave COVID-19 pandemics in Europe: a temporal playbook

First wave parameters Second wave simulations: peak timing (calendar weeks 2020)
  a \(\gamma \) Case a Case b Case c Case d Case e
Austria \(7.463\pm 0.007\) \(0.99\pm 0.025\) \(30.4\pm 0.4\) \(32.4\pm 0.5\) \(34.7\pm 0.5\) \(30.6\pm 0.9\) \(34.8+0.9-0.7\)
Belgium \(8.53\pm 0.02\) \(0.55\pm 0.02\) \(34.6\pm 0.7\) \(37.9\pm 0.6\) \(41.4\pm 0.5\) \(34.9\pm 1.4\) \(33.8^*+0.8-0.7\)
Bosnia \(7.88\pm 0.024\) \(0.41\pm 0.02\) \(33.9\pm 0.6\) \(37.4\pm 0.5\) \(41.0\pm 0.5\) \(34.0\pm 1.1\) \(33.4^*+0.7-0.6\)
Croatia \(6.268\pm 0.007\) \(0.71\pm 0.02\) \(30.9\pm 0.6\) \(33.5\pm 0.7\) \(36.6\pm 0.7\) \(31.1\pm 1.0\) \(27.7^*+0.1-0.1\)
Czechia \(9.085\pm 0.014\) \(0.56\pm 0.03\) \(33.5\pm 0.7\) \(36.8\pm 0.6\) \(40.2\pm 0.5\) \(33.7\pm 1.2\) \(32.7^*+0.6-0.5\)
Denmark \(7.667\pm 0.008\) \(0.40\pm 0.01\) \(35.6\pm 0.6\) \(39.2\pm 0.5\) \(42.7\pm 0.5\) \(35.8\pm 1.2\) \(39.9+1.3-1.1\)
Finland \(7.190\pm 0.005\) \(0.385\pm 0.006\) \(35.4\pm 0.6\) \(39.0\pm 0.5\) \(42.5\pm 0.5\) \(35.7\pm 1.2\) \(39.8+1.3-1.1\)
France \(7.711\pm 0.006\) \(0.58\pm 0.012\) \(36.0\pm 0.6\) \(39.3\pm 0.5\) \(42.6\pm 0.4\) \(36.3\pm 1.4\) \(41.1+1.4-1.2\)
Germany \(7.679\pm 0.007\) \(0.62\pm 0.02\) \(35.8\pm 0.6\) \(39.0\pm 0.5\) \(42.3\pm 0.5\) \(36.1\pm 1.5\) \(39.9+1.4-1.1\)
Greece \(5.537\pm 0.009\) \(0.57\pm 0.02\) \(32.5\pm 0.6\) \(35.8\pm 0.5\) \(39.2\pm 0.4\) \(32.7\pm 1.0\) \(31.7^*+0.6-0.5\)
Hungary \(6.022\pm 0.009\) \(0.47\pm 0.01\) \(33.9\pm 0.6\) \(37.4\pm 0.5\) \(40.9\pm 0.5\) \(34.2\pm 1.0\) \(38.1+1.1-0.9\)
Ireland \(8.580\pm 0.008\) \(0.60\pm 0.02\) \(33.1\pm 0.7\) \(36.1\pm 0.7\) \(39.5\pm 0.6\) \(33.4\pm 1.2\) \(36.6+1.0-0.9\)
Italy \(8.304\pm 0.004\) \(0.429\pm 0.008\) \(39.1\pm 0.6\) \(42.8\pm 0.4\) \(46.1\pm 0.5\) \(39.5\pm 1.7\) \(43.9+1.7-1.4\)
Netherlands \(7.904\pm 0.005\) \(0.525\pm 0.008\) \(35.2\pm 0.7\) \(38.6\pm 0.6\) \(42.1\pm 0.5\) \(35.5\pm 1.3\) \(34.3^*+0.9-0.7\)
Norway \(7.356\pm 0.006\) \(0.58\pm 0.02\) \(32.7\pm 0.6\) \(35.8\pm 0.7\) \(39.3\pm 0.6\) \(32.9\pm 1.0\) \(36.4+1.0-0.8\)
Poland \(7.13\pm 0.03\) \(0.182\pm 0.007\) \(45.7\pm 0.5\) \(49.3\pm 0.6\) \(52.6\pm 0.6\) \(46.2\pm 1.7\) \(54.6+2.7-2.2\)
Portugal \(10.323\pm 0.014\) \(0.517\pm 0.022\) \(34.7\pm 0.7\) \(38.1\pm 0.6\) \(41.6\pm 0.5\) \(35.0\pm 1.4\) \(38.7+1.2-1.0\)
Serbia \(9.323\pm 0.012\) \(0.628\pm 0.017\) \(32.6\pm 0.6\) \(35.6\pm 0.6\) \(38.9\pm 0.5\) \(34.0\pm 1.1\) \(29.2^*+0.3-0.3\)
Slovakia \(5.67\pm 0.02\) \(0.59\pm 0.04\) \(31.7\pm 0.7\) \(34.8\pm 0.7\) \(38.2\pm 0.6\) \(31.9\pm 1.0\) \(30.7^*+0.5-0.4\)
Slovenia \(7.299\pm 0.007\) \(0.656\pm 0.017\) \(30.7\pm 0.6\) \(33.5\pm 0.7\) \(36.7\pm 0.6\) \(30.9\pm 0.9\) \(29.7^*+0.3-0.3\)
Spain \(8.747\pm 0.008\) \(0.46\pm 0.01\) \(38.2\pm 0.7\) \(41.8\pm 0.5\) \(45.2\pm 0.5\) \(38.5\pm 1.8\) \(33.8^*+0.8-0.7\)
Sweden \(11.56\pm 0.04\) \(0.162\pm 0.008\) \(47.8\pm 0.5\) \(51.3\pm 0.5\) \(54.6\pm 0.6\) \(48.3\pm 2.2\) \(55.8+2.9-2.4\)
Switzerland \(8.196\pm 0.003\) \(0.72\pm 0.01\) \(32.4\pm 0.6\) \(35.1\pm 0.7\) \(38.1\pm 0.7\) \(32.6\pm 1.2\) \(35.8+1.0-0.8\)
UK \(8.353\pm 0.007\) \(0.368\pm 0.007\) \(41.0\pm 0.6\) \(44.6\pm 0.4\) \(48.0\pm 0.5\) \(41.3\pm 1.9\) \(46.2+2.0-1.6\)