Figure 8 | Scientific Reports

Figure 8

From: Continuation of tropical Pacific Ocean temperature trend may weaken extreme El Niño and its linkage to the Southern Annular Mode

Figure 8

Changes in extreme El Niño and its ocean mixed layer heat budget due to the ocean mean state difference. Equatorial anomalies of present climate El Niño (pElNiño’, blue curves) and warmer climate El Niño (wElNiño’, red curves) for (a) SSTs and (be) the ocean mixed layer heat advective terms. Anomalies are computed over 5°S-5°N. Thick solid curves in (a) and green curves in (be) indicate where the difference between pElNiño’ and wElNiño’ is significant at the 5% level, using the two sets of 99 member forecasts. The displayed ocean mixed layer heat advective terms are (b) thermocline feedback by the mean ocean upwelling at 45 m for pClim and wClim (\(\bar{w}\)) acting on the anomalous vertical temperature gradients (Tz) of pElNiño’; (c) zonal advective feedback by the mean zonal currents (averaged in the mixed layer) of pClim and wClim (\(\bar{u}\)) acting on the anomalous zonal temperature gradients (Tx) of pElNiño’; (d) zonal advective feedback by the anomalous zonal currents of pElNiño’ and wElNiño’ (u′) acting on the mean zonal temperature gradients of pClim \(({\bar{T}}_{x})\); and (e) zonal advective feedback by the anomalous zonal currents of pElNiño’ (u′) acting on the mean zonal temperature gradients of pClim wClim (\({\bar{T}}_{x}\)). Plots of all the individual ocean heat advection terms can be found in Supplementary Figs. S57.

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