Model fit to data. The solid horizontal lines indicate the best estimates of the output values. The dashed horizontal lines indicate the minimum and maximum of the output plausible ranges. Circles, triangles, and squares indicate the high, medium, and low non-repeated casual transmission risk scenarios respectively. Red indicates scenarios with no additional variation in infectiousness or susceptibility simulated, and purple, turquoise, and green indicate the best estimate of k, and lower and upper bounds of the 95% confidence interval for k respectively. Full details of each output and plausible range justification are given in the supplementary information.