Table 2 Aggregating risk to the county scale can absorb some of the inherent spatial uncertainty of ecological niche modeling, but is itself an assumption that changes downstream impacts on the scale of outbreaks, as well as the scale of disagreement between models.

From: Consensus and conflict among ecological forecasts of Zika virus outbreaks in the United States

  Carlson Partial Messina Partial Samy Partial
Counties Predicted 13 13 465 465 1616 1616
County Population at Risk 19,653,445 6,264,516 95,359,408 38,085,602 270,249,781 99,324,226
Mean Outbreak Size 12,871,005 4,195,326 63,622,367 25,897,671 181,290,371 66,345,567
Median Outbreak Size 14,552,250 4,262,636 64,038,273 26,307,445 181,732,629 66,850,610