The margin of error in ecological niche models for Zika virus. (a) Average epidemiological forecasts associated with county data for Carlson (blue), Messina (red), and Samy (black), against a backdrop of overlapping individual simulations for each (grey). (b) The individual predictions of each model are given as presence or absence values; a maximum score of 3 indicates all models agree on presence, while a score of 0 indicates all models agree on absence. (c) Has consensus been achieved? At the county scale, dark blue indicates consensus among niche models; white indicates controversy. Maps were made in R 3.3.268 (https://www.R-project.org), using U.S. Census shapefiles.