Figure 3 | Scientific Reports

Figure 3

From: Induced seismicity closed-form traffic light system for actuarial decision-making during deep fluid injections

Figure 3

ATLS validation on synthetics of the 2006 Basel fluid injection experiment. (a) Observed time series and flow rate \(\dot{V}(t)\) during the 2006 Basel experiment13,23; (b) Maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) of ground parameters a fb and b over time determined from the Basel time series using a moving window of 100 events (see Methods section). Generic parameter values are here updated after the first 100 events are observed. Once injection stops at tshut-in, b is assumed to remain constant since no control on induced seismicity is possible after that time; (c) Simulated version of the 2006 Basel time series (in grey) and shorten (coloured) when injection is stopped by having an event with magnitude m > m th (in green); (d) ATLS validation showing that the frequency of events with m ≥ m th tends to Y over many simulations (fluctuations around Y represent the inherent uncertainty of the earthquake Poisson process, which decrease with increasing sample size).

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