Biomarker dynamics validation. (A) The standardized residual of biomarkers of 31 incident specimens from 15 WIHS subjects. Each WIHS subject’s first specimen’s days post infection was randomly assigned within the maximum and minimum days post infection (Table 1) and subsequent specimens’ days post infection were based on specimen collection time intervals. This sampling was repeated 10,000 times to obtain each specimen’s biomarker value as a function of days post infection, yielding 10,000 sets of 31 standardized residuals. These standardized residuals were distributed within [−2:2], implying that the WIHS sequence dataset conformed to the GSI dynamics inferred from 438 independent specimens presented in Fig. 3A. (B) The p-value distribution of 10,000 Anderson-Darling tests. All p values were above 0.28, suggesting that the GSI distribution of the WIHS validation dataset is statistically consistent with the model estimate in Fig. 3.