Figure 1 | Scientific Reports

Figure 1

From: Predicting the spread of the Asian hornet (Vespa velutina) following its incursion into Great Britain

Figure 1

Dynamics of V. velutina nests in England and Wales showing its spatial spread and rapid increase in numbers. Maps A to E represent a single realisation of the spatial model with ecological parameters at the median of the MCMC posterior distributions based on the data from Andernos-les-Bains18. In maps A to D (which represent years 1, 2, 3 and 5) individual nest sites are marked with crosses, in map E (at 10 years) we show the density of nests in 1 km squares. Map F displays the long-term state (20 years following invasion), averaged across stochastic replicates and across parameter uncertainty. Graph G shows the temporal dynamics highlighting the mean (black), median (red) and 50% and 95% prediction intervals (shaded). (Map F and Graph G are from a thousand stochastic replicates with random draws from the posterior parameter distributions. Maps are generated from EEA Corine Land Cover data28 and displayed with bespoke software using Matlab29.)

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