Changes of dust event frequency in the late half of the twenty-first century (with reference to the historical run, 1861–2005). Shaded grids in the upper panel denote area where the agreement among the models is lower than 62.5% (see Methods). Bar plot in the bottom panel shows overall changes of dust event frequency (grey) in three regions and the contributions from each controlling factor, i.e., precipitation (purple), bareness (green), and surface wind speed (orange). Error bars denote one standard deviation among 16 models. CMIP5 model simulated DOD variations are shown in cyan dots, with error bars denoting one standard deviation among the seven models used here. Maps were generated using the NCAR Command Language (NCL; https://www.ncl.ucar.edu/), version 6.2.1.