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Clinical outcomes associated with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant and BA.1/BA.1.1 or BA.2 subvariant infection in southern California

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Epidemiologic surveillance has revealed decoupling of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths from case counts following emergence of the Omicron (B.1.1.529) SARS-CoV-2 variant globally. However, assessment of the relative severity of Omicron variant infections presents challenges because of differential acquired immune protection against Omicron and prior variants, and because longer-term changes have occurred in testing and healthcare practices. Here we show that Omicron variant infections were associated with substantially reduced risk of progression to severe clinical outcomes relative to time-matched Delta (B.1.617.2) variant infections within a large, integrated healthcare system in southern California. Adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for any hospital admission, symptomatic hospital admission, intensive care unit admission, mechanical ventilation, and death comparing cases with Omicron versus Delta variant infection were 0.59 (95% confidence interval: 0.51-0.69), 0.59 (0.51-0.68), 0.50 (0.29-0.87), 0.36 (0.18-0.72), and 0.21 (0.10-0.44) respectively. This reduced severity could not be explained by differential history of prior infection among cases with Omicron or Delta variant infection, and was starkest among cases not previously vaccinated against COVID-19 (aHR=0.40 [0.33-0.49] for any hospital admission and 0.14 [0.07-0.28] for death). Infections with the Omicron BA.2 subvariant were not associated with differential risk of severe outcomes in comparison to BA.1/BA.1.1 subvariant infections. Lower risk of severe clinical outcomes among cases with Omicron variant infection should inform public health response amid establishment of the Omicron variant as the dominant SARS-CoV-2 lineage globally.

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Correspondence to Joseph A. Lewnard or Sara Y. Tartof.

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Lewnard, J.A., Hong, V.X., Patel, M.M. et al. Clinical outcomes associated with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant and BA.1/BA.1.1 or BA.2 subvariant infection in southern California. Nat Med (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-022-01887-z

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