Prior and posterior distributions for the epidemics in a, Beijing and Shanghai, b, South Korea and c, Lombardy using the ‘consensus’ fit for age-specific clinical fraction and assuming subclinical infections are 50% as infectious as clinical infections (see Fig. 2c, main text). For (a), times are in days after December 1st, 2019; for (b) and (c), times are in days after January 1st, 2019. Note, seed_d is the inferred duration of the seeding event. See also Supplementary Table 4.