Extended Data Fig. 2: Simultaneous estimation of age-varying susceptibility and clinical fraction to epidemic data from Wuhan City, China. | Nature Medicine

Extended Data Fig. 2: Simultaneous estimation of age-varying susceptibility and clinical fraction to epidemic data from Wuhan City, China.

From: Age-dependent effects in the transmission and control of COVID-19 epidemics

Extended Data Fig. 2

This figure replicates Fig. 1 of the main text, but comparing model variants 1 and 2 to a fourth model variant in which both susceptibility and clinical fraction vary by age. a, Model diagram (see Fig. 1, main text). b, Susceptibility by age for the three models. Age-specific values were estimated for models 1 (orange) and 4 (pink). Susceptibility is defined as the probability of infection on contact with an infectious person. Mean (lines), 50% (darker shading) and 95% (lighter shading) credible intervals shown. c, Clinical fraction (yi) by age for the three models. Age-specific values were estimated for model 2 (blue) and 4 (pink), and fixed at 0.5 for model 1. d, Fitted contact multipliers for holiday (qH) and restricted periods (qL) for each model showed an increase in non-school contacts beginning on January 12th (start of Lunar New Year) and a decrease in contacts following restrictions on January 23rd. e, Estimated R0 values for each model. The red barplot shows the inferred window of spillover of infection. f, Incident reported cases (black), and modeled incidence of reported clinical cases for the three models fitted to cases reported by China Centers for Disease Control (CCDC) with onset on or before February 1st, 2020. Line marks mean and shaded window is the 95% highest density interval (HDI). g, Age distribution of cases by onset date as fitted to the age distributions reported by Li et al. (first three panels) and CCDC (fourth panel). Data are shown in the hollow bars, and model predictions in filled bars, where the dot marks the mean posterior estimate. h, Implied distribution of subclinical cases by age for each model. Credible intervals on modeled values show the 95% HDIs; credible intervals on data for panels g and h show 95% HDIs for the proportion of cases in each age group.

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