Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Article
  • Published:

Extreme rainfall triggered the 2018 rift eruption at Kīlauea Volcano

Nature volume 580, pages 491–495 (2020)Cite this article

Subjects

Matters Arising to this article was published on 02 February 2022

An Author Correction to this article was published on 22 May 2020

This article has been updated

Abstract

The May 2018 rift intrusion and eruption of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i, represented one of its most extraordinary eruptive sequences in at least 200 years, yet the trigger mechanism remains elusive1. The event was preceded by several months of anomalously high precipitation. It has been proposed that rainfall can modulate shallow volcanic activity2,3, but it remains unknown whether it can have impacts at the greater depths associated with magma transport. Here we show that immediately before and during the eruption, infiltration of rainfall into Kīlauea Volcano’s subsurface increased pore pressure at depths of 1 to 3 kilometres by 0.1 to 1 kilopascals, to its highest pressure in almost 50 years. We propose that weakening and mechanical failure of the edifice was driven by changes in pore pressure within the rift zone, prompting opportunistic dyke intrusion and ultimately facilitating the eruption. A precipitation-induced eruption trigger is consistent with the lack of substantial precursory summit inflation, showing that this intrusion—unlike others—was not caused by the forceful intrusion of new magma into the rift zone. Moreover, statistical analysis of historic eruption occurrence suggests that rainfall patterns contribute substantially to the timing and frequency of Kīlauea’s eruptions and intrusions. Thus, volcanic activity can be modulated by extreme rainfall triggering edifice rock failure—a factor that should be considered when assessing volcanic hazards. Notably, the increasingly extreme weather patterns associated with ongoing anthropogenic climate change could increase the potential for rainfall-triggered volcanic phenomena worldwide.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Buy this article

  • Purchase on Springer Link
  • Instant access to full article PDF
Buy now

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Fig. 1: Pre-eruption ground deformation of the study site.
Fig. 2: Rainfall over Kīlauea.
Fig. 3: Diffusion model metadata.
Fig. 4: Pore-pressure change in response to infiltration into Kīlauea’s edifice.

Similar content being viewed by others

Data availability

Satellite-derived rainfall data (TRMM and GPM satellite data) are available from NASA’s EarthData GES DISC portal (https://doi.org/10.5067/TRMM/TMPA/3H/7). Rainfall gauge data are available from the NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information climate data portal (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datasets/GHCND/stations/GHCND:USC00511303/detail). Vertical GPS data are available from the Nevada Geodetic Laboratory (http://geodesy.unr.edu/NGLStationPages/stations/; stations CRIM, AHUP, MKAI and KTPM). Additional datasets generated here are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request. Sentinel-1 ascending- and descending-track SAR acquisitions were obtained through Unavco’s Seamless SAR Archive (https://github.com/bakerunavco/SSARA). Vertical displacement (velocity) maps of Kīlauea for the time periods 2014–2017 and 2018 are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3459589, alongside the Shuttle Radar Tomography Mission (SRTM) digital elevation model used for plotting data.

Code availability

An archived version of the code required for data access, analysis and display is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3635944. Python code is in a Jupyter Notebook. Version updates, if applicable, will be made available via GitHub: https://github.com/jifarquharson/Farquharson_Amelung_2020_Kilauea-Nature and https://github.com/geodesymiami/papers/tree/master/Farquharson_Amelung_2020_Kilauea-Nature.

Change history

References

  1. Neal, C. A. et al. The 2018 rift eruption and summit collapse of Kīlauea Volcano. Science 363, 367–374 (2019).

    ADS  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  2. Mastin, L. G. Explosive tephra emissions at Mount St. Helens, 1989–1991: the violent escape of magmatic gas following storms? Geol. Soc. Am. Bull. 106, 175–185 (1994).

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  3. Matthews, A. J. & Barclay, J. A thermodynamical model for rainfall-triggered volcanic dome collapse. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, L05614 (2004).

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  4. Costain, J. K. Groundwater recharge as the trigger of naturally occurring intraplate earthquakes. Geol. Soc. Lond. Spec. Publ. 432, 91–118 (2017).

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  5. Hainzl, S., Kraft, T., Wassermann, J., Igel, H. & Schmedes, E. Evidence for rainfall-triggered earthquake activity. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L19303 (2006).

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  6. Handwerger, A. L., Rempel, A. W., Skarbek, R. M., Roering, J. J. & Hilley, G. E. Rate-weakening friction characterizes both slow sliding and catastrophic failure of landslides. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 113, 10281–10286 (2016).

    ADS  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  7. Kodaira, S. et al. High pore fluid pressure may cause silent slip in the Nankai Trough. Science 304, 1295–1298 (2004).

    ADS  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  8. Prejean, S. G. et al. Remotely triggered seismicity on the United States west coast following the Mw 7.9 Denali Fault earthquake. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 94, S348–S359 (2004).

    Google Scholar 

  9. Voight, B., Constantine, E. K., Siswowidjoyo, S. & Torley, R. Historical eruptions of Merapi volcano, central Java, Indonesia, 1768–1998. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 100, 69–138 (2000).

    ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  10. Yamasato, H., Kitagawa, S. & Komiya, M. Effect of rainfall on dacitic lava dome collapse at Unzen volcano, Japan. Pap. Meteorol. Geophys. 48, 73–78 (1998).

    Google Scholar 

  11. Christenson, B. W. et al. Cyclic processes and factors leading to phreatic eruption events: insights from the 25 September 2007 eruption through Ruapehu Crater Lake, New Zealand. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 191, 15–32 (2010).

    ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  12. Canon-Tapia, E. Volcanic eruption triggers: a hierarchical classification. Earth Sci. Rev. 129, 100–119 (2014).

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  13. Matthews, A. J., Barclay, J. & Johnstone, J. E. The fast response of volcano-seismic activity to intense precipitation: triggering of primary volcanic activity by rainfall at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 184, 405–415 (2009).

    ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  14. Violette, S. et al. Can rainfall trigger volcanic eruptions? A mechanical stress model of an active volcano: ‘Piton de la Fournaise’, Reunion Island. Terra Nova 13, 18–24 (2001).

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  15. Hammond, W. C., Kreemer, C., Zaliapin, I. & Blewitt, G. Drought-triggered magmatic inflation, crustal strain and seismicity near the Long Valley Caldera, Central Walker Lane. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 124, 6072–6091 (2019).

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  16. Timoshenko, S. P. & Goodier, J. Theory of Elasticity 2nd edn (Maple Press, 1951).

  17. Tait, S., Jaupart, C. & Vergniolle, S. Pressure, gas content and eruption periodicity of a shallow, crystallising magma chamber. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 92, 107–123 (1989).

    ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  18. Rubin, A. M. Tensile fracture of rock at high confining pressure: implications for dike propagation. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 98 (B9), 15919–15935 (1993).

    Google Scholar 

  19. Wong, T. F. & Baud, P. The brittle-ductile transition in porous rock: a review. J. Struct. Geol. 44, 25–53 (2012).

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  20. Jónsson, S., Segall, P., Pedersen, R. & Björnsson, G. Post-earthquake ground movements correlated to pore-pressure transients. Nature 424, 179–183 (2003).

    ADS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  21. Owen, S. et al. January 30, 1997 eruptive event on Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii, as monitored by continuous GPS. Geophys. Res. Lett. 27, 2757–2760 (2000).

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  22. Poland, M. P., Takahashi, T. J. & Landowski, C. M. Characteristics of Hawaiian Volcanoes Professional Paper 1801 (Government Printing Office, 2014).

  23. National Climate Extremes Committee. National Record 24-Hour Precipitation at Waipā Garden, Hawai‘i Report 14 December 2018 (National Centers for Environmental Information, 2018).

  24. Ingebritsen, S. E. & Scholl, M. A. The hydrogeology of Kilauea volcano. Geothermics 22, 255–270 (1993).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  25. Keller, G. V., Grose, L. T., Murray, J. C. & Skokan, C. K. Results of an experimental drill hole at the summit of Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 5, 345–385 (1979).

    ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  26. Klein, F. W., Koyanagi, R. Y., Nakata, J. S. & Tanigawa, W. R. in U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper, Issue 1350 Vol. 2 (eds Decker, R. W. et al.) 1019–1185 (US Geological Survey, 1987).

  27. Heliker, C. & Mattox, T. N. The First Two Decades of the Pu‘u ‘O‘ö-Küpaianaha Eruption: Chronology and Selected Bibliography (U.S. Geological Survey, 2003).

  28. Orr, T. R. et al. in Hawaiian Volcanoes: From Source to Surface Vol. 208, Ch. 19 (eds Carey, R. et al.) 393–420 (2015).

  29. Loveridge, E. F. April 1924 climatological data: Hawaii section. Climatological Data 4, 25–40 (1924).

    Google Scholar 

  30. Farquharson, J., Heap, M. J., Baud, P., Reuschlé, T. & Varley, N. R. Pore pressure embrittlement in a volcanic edifice. Bull. Volcanol. 78, 6 (2016).

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  31. Gudmundsson, A. Rock Fractures in Geological Processes (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2011).

  32. Albino, F., Amelung, F. & Gregg, P. The role of pore fluid pressure on the failure of magma reservoirs: insights from Indonesian and Aleutian arc volcanoes. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 123, 1328–1349 (2018).

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  33. Tolstoy, M., Vernon, F. L., Orcutt, J. A. & Wyatt, F. K. Breathing of the seafloor: tidal correlations of seismicity at Axial volcano. Geology 30, 503–506 (2002).

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  34. Scholz, C. H., Tan, Y. J. & Albino, F. The mechanism of tidal triggering of earthquakes at mid-ocean ridges. Nat. Commun. 10, 2526 (2019).

    ADS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  35. Dzurisin, D. Influence of fortnightly earth tides at Kilauea volcano, Hawaii. Geophys. Res. Lett. 7, 925–928 (1980).

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  36. Saar, M. O. & Manga, M. Seismicity induced by seasonal groundwater recharge at Mt. Hood, Oregon. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 214, 605–618 (2003).

    ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  37. Wauthier, C., Roman, D. C. & Poland, M. P. Modulation of seismic activity in Kīlauea’s upper East Rift Zone (Hawai‘i) by summit pressurization. Geology 47, 820–824 (2019).

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  38. Fattahi, H., Agram, P. & Simons, M. A network-based enhanced spectral diversity approach for TOPS time-series analysis. IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sens. 55, 777–786 (2017).

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  39. Yunjun, Z., Fattahi, H. & Amelung, F. Small baseline InSAR time series analysis: unwrapping error correction and noise reduction. Computers Geosci. 133, 104331 (2019).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  40. Blewitt, G., Hammond, W. C. & Kreemer, C. Harnessing the GPS data explosion for interdisciplinary science. Eos 99, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EO104623 (2018).

  41. Imada, J. A. Numerical Modeling of the Groundwater in the East Rift Zone of Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii. PhD Thesis, Univ. Hawaii at Manoa (1984).

  42. Souza, W. R. & Voss, C. I. Analysis of an anisotropic coastal aquifer system using variable-density flow and solute transport simulation. J. Hydrol. 92, 17–41 (1987).

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  43. Farquharson, J. I. & Wadsworth, F. B. Upscaling permeability in anisotropic volcanic systems. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 364, 35–47 (2018).

    ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  44. Murray, J. C. The Geothermal System at Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii. PhD Thesis, Colorado School of Mines, Golden (1974).

  45. Hsieh, P. A. & Ingebritsen, S. E. Groundwater inflow toward a preheated volcanic conduit: application to the 2018 eruption at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 124, 1498–1506 (2019).

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  46. Farquharson, J., Heap, M. J., Varley, N. R., Baud, P. & Reuschlé, T. Permeability and porosity relationships of edifice-forming andesites: a combined field and laboratory study. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 297, 52–68 (2015).

    ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  47. Heap, M. J. & Wadsworth, F. B. Closing an open system: pore pressure changes in permeable edifice rock at high strain rates. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 315, 40–50 (2016).

    ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  48. Bak, P., Tang, C. & Wiesenfeld, K. Self-organized criticality: an explanation of the 1/f noise. Phys. Rev. Lett. 59, 381 (1987).

    ADS  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  49. Gao, S. S., Silver, P. G., Linde, A. T. & Sacks, I. S. Annual modulation of triggered seismicity following the 1992 Landers earthquake in California. Nature 406, 500–504 (2000).

    ADS  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  50. Hurwitz, S. & Johnston, M. J. Groundwater level changes in a deep well in response to a magma intrusion event on Kilauea Volcano, Hawai’i. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30, 2173 (2003).

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  51. Gingerich, S. B. The Hydrothermal System of the Lower East Rift Zone of Kilauea Volcano: Conceptual and Numerical Models of Energy and Solute Transport. PhD thesis, Univ. Hawaii (1995).

  52. Cervelli, P., Segall, P., Johnson, K., Lisowski, M. & Miklius, A. Sudden aseismic fault slip on the south flank of Kilauea volcano. Nature 415, 1014–1018 (2002); corrigendum 418, 108 (2002).

    ADS  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This study would not have been possible without the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM)—joint missions between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Japanese Space Exploration Agency (JAXA) —and the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Copernicus Sentinel-1 data. Copernicus Sentinel-1 data with six-day imagery are available thanks to the Group on Earth Observation’s (GEO) Geohazard Supersites and Natural Laboratory Initiative (GSNL). This work was supported by funding from the NASA’s Interdisciplinary Research in Earth Science (IDS) program (grant number 80NSSC17K0028 P00003). Data processing was conducted at the High Performance Computing core of the University of Miami’s Center for Computational Science (CCS) using the public domain ISCE and SSARA softwares of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and Unavco, respectively. This study was motivated by preliminary analysis by F. Albino, and has benefited from discussions with I. Johanson, K. Anderson and D. Swanson, as well as the comments of three reviewers. Y. Zhang is thanked for his work in the development of MintPy (https://github.com/insarlab/MintPy). We thank NASA, the Nevada Geodetic Laboratory and the NOAA for making the data used herein freely available, as well as the developers of SSARA, ISCE and MintPy for providing free open-source software. We acknowledge Hawai‘i as an indigenous space whose original people are today identified as Native Hawaiians.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA

    Jamie I. Farquharson & Falk Amelung

Authors
  1. Jamie I. Farquharson
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Falk Amelung
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

J.I.F. and F.A. conceived the study. J.I.F. performed the modelling and wrote the initial draft of the manuscript. F.A. processed the InSAR data. Both authors contributed to the discussion and interpretation of the results, and the writing of the paper.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jamie I. Farquharson.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Additional information

Peer review information Nature thanks Michael Manga and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Extended data figures and tables

Extended Data Fig. 1 Comparison of recorded head change and modelled pressure change.

a, Rainfall data obtained from the Hawai‘ian Beaches rain gauge (refer to Fig. 1a inset for location). b, Data from the Paradise Park well (see Fig. 1a inset for the location of the well), digitized from ref. 51 over the time period October 1992–June 1993. c, Pressure evolution at a depth of 1 km modelled using rain data from a. Grey bars highlight peaks evident in well-level data that are echoed in the modelled data on pore-pressure change. Note that well level serves as a proxy for pressure change, dependent on well depth and bore, inertia, storage capacity, tidal effects and atmospheric pressure: these factors are not considered in this illustrative example.

Extended Data Fig. 2 Diffusion model results.

a, Pore-pressure change at 3 km below the surface (1.8 km b.s.l.) modelled over the period January 1950 to April 2019 for model Ω1 (data shown since the 1975 Kalapana earthquake). Data modelled using gauge data are shown in red; data modelled using satellite data are in blue. Four-year averages (dashed lines) are also shown. Vertical bars indicate reported intrusion events within the rift zone. K shows the Kalapana earthquake; P represents the onset of the Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō eruption; E highlights the 2018 fissure eruption. The arrow indicates the highest modelled pressure change. b, As for a, but for model Ω2, a theoretical high-diffusivity end-member scenario. c, As for a, but for model Ω3, a theoretical low-diffusivity end-member scenario. d, PDF of modelled pressure change at depths 1–6 km below the surface from model Ω1. Arrows highlight the pore-pressure front diffusing from near the surface (1 km) to greater depths over time (months and dates are shown). e, As for d, but for model Ω2 (pressure maxima not shown). f, As for d, but for model Ω3 (pressure maxima not shown).

Extended Data Fig. 3 Predicted binomial distribution of ‘wet’ season eruptions at Kīlauea.

The anticipated means, \(\bar{x}\), and standard deviations, ς, are shown. The observed number of historical ‘wet’ season eruptions (37) is highlighted, with a probability of 0.02. Data are also shown for historical eruptions of VEI 2 and greater.

Extended Data Table 1 Parameters of models shown in Fig. 3
Full size table

Source data

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Farquharson, J.I., Amelung, F. Extreme rainfall triggered the 2018 rift eruption at Kīlauea Volcano. Nature 580, 491–495 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2172-5

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2172-5

This article is cited by

Comments

By submitting a comment you agree to abide by our Terms and Community Guidelines. If you find something abusive or that does not comply with our terms or guidelines please flag it as inappropriate.

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing