Extended Data Fig. 4: Illustration of scenario variation and differences between the scenario logic presented in this study and an end-of-century scenario approach. | Nature

Extended Data Fig. 4: Illustration of scenario variation and differences between the scenario logic presented in this study and an end-of-century scenario approach.

From: A new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal

Extended Data Fig. 4

a, Pink-to-red, scenarios created with the scenario logic presented in this paper; blue dashed, scenarios created with an end-of-century scenario approach (see labelling). b, For a given amount of cumulative CO2 emissions all scenarios result in a similar amount of temperature increase by 2100 (crosses and diamonds), but different levels of maximum (peak) warming (circles and squares). c, Replication of Fig. 3 showing how stable emissions levels in the second half of the century can be achieved by a variety of system configurations with different amounts of CDR. Note that to achieve a scenario that limits global mean temperature rise in 2100 to 1.5 °C, the standard end-of-century scenario approach would suggest net negative CO2 emissions of about 15 Gt CO2 per year in 2100, while the scenario logic presented in this paper allows the construction of scenarios that achieve that temperature in 2100 with zero to about 5 Gt CO2 per year of net negative CO2 emissions, and a variety of gross CDR contributions.

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