Fig. 1: Schematic of factors contributing to the quantification of a remaining carbon budget. | Nature

Fig. 1: Schematic of factors contributing to the quantification of a remaining carbon budget.

From: Estimating and tracking the remaining carbon budget for stringent climate targets

Fig. 1

The schematic shows how the remaining carbon budget can be estimated from various independently assessable quantities, including the historical human-induced warming Thist, the zero-emissions commitment TZEC, the contribution of future non-CO2 warming (consistent with global net-zero CO2 emissions or otherwise) \({T}_{{{\rm{nonCO}}}_{{\rm{2}}}}\), the transient climate response to cumulative emissions of carbon (TCRE), and further correcting for unrepresented Earth system feedback EEsfb. The grey shading illustrates how uncertainty in TCRE propagates from the start point. Arrows and dashed lines are visual guides illustrating how the various factors combine to provide an estimate of the remaining carbon budget. Besides estimating the remaining carbon budget Blim, the framework can also be applied to understand, decompose and discuss estimates of carbon budgets calculated by other methods. The relative sizes of the various contributions shown in this schematic are not to scale.

Back to article page