a, Time courses of the discovery CLL cohort (Supplementary Table 1). Circles indicate time points of samples analysed by WES. Dotted lines represent course of CLL from diagnosis (left vertical line) until last follow-up (arrows) or death (right vertical line), and solid lines indicate timeframe covered by the analysis of serial samples by WES, coloured by growth pattern. b, Cumulative distribution function (CDF) of posterior probabilities for carrying capacity K obtained from the Bayesian model based on a logistic growth pattern for patients. Categorizations of the growth pattern of the individual patients are marked. c, Classification of patients based on the probability that their carrying capacity K is below 1,000 (×109 cells per litre) (red numbers in top left corner). Also shown are the posterior probability distributions for all model parameters (carrying capacity K, growth rate r, WBC count at diagnosis X0 and variance of the noise σ2). Far right panels per patient: leukaemia burden information provided by WBC measurements (blue dots), with ten random fits from the Bayesian model. Red numbers in top left corners indicate time (years) from diagnosis to first treatment.