Reply to: Moon, I.-J. et al.; Lanzante, J. R.

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Fig. 1: Low-pass filtered time series of annual-mean tropical-cyclone translation speed over the continental USA and an AMV index.
Fig. 2: Time series of residuals of the regression of annual-mean tropical-cyclone translation speed over the continental USA onto an AMV index.

Data availability

All data used in the analyses are available from the author on request.

Code availability

All codes used to read, analyse and plot the data are available from the author on request.

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Correspondence to James P. Kossin.

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Extended data figures and tables

Extended Data Fig. 1 Time series of global annual-mean tropical-cyclone translation speed with inter-basin frequency variability removed.

Bold lines show the low-pass filtered time series and trend. Grey shading shows the 95% confidence bounds of the trend. The slope of the trend line is –0.02 km h–1 yr–1 with a 95% confidence interval of [–0.03, –0.01] and P value of 0.0003. The change over the period represents a 7% slowdown.

Extended Data Fig. 2 Time series of annual-mean tropical-cyclone translation speed over the continental USA (CONUS).

The trend, which is constrained to the reliable period 1900–2017, has a slope of –0.04 km hr–1 yr–1 with a 95% confidence interval of [–0.07, 0.0008] and P value = 0.058. The change over the period represents a 17% slowdown. Grey shading shows the 95% confidence bounds of the trend.

Extended Data Fig. 3 Time series of annual-mean tropical-cyclone latitude over the continental USA.

The bold line shows the low-pass filtered time series. There is no trend in the time series.

Extended Data Fig. 4 Time series of the annual count of data over the continental USA.

The bold line shows the low-pass filtered time series. The increasing trend prior to 1900 is due to data collection changes. The increasing trend at the end of the time series is associated with the present active phase in Atlantic tropical-cyclone activity, which is associated with the present warm AMV phase.

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