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Uncertainties in tropical-cyclone translation speed

Matters Arising to this article was published on 05 June 2019

The Original Article was published on 06 June 2018

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Fig. 1: Time series of annually averaged TCS with model fits by region.
Fig. 2: Latitudinal profiles of TCS and change in sampling due to satellites.

Data availability

The tropical-cyclone data analysed in this study were taken from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS;, file Indices of a variety of the most commonly cited regional climate modes of variability were obtained from several sources: the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL;, the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI;, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR;, the University of East Anglia (UEA; and the British Antarctic Survey (BAS;

Code availability

The FORTRAN code used to perform the change-point analyses6 is available from the author on request.


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I thank T. Knutson and C. Stock for comments on an earlier version of this manuscript, and J. Kossin for providing information and feedback on the processing of the IBTrACS data.

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Correspondence to John R. Lanzante.

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Extended data figures and tables

Extended Data Fig. 1 Trends and significances by scenario and region.

Each bar represents the trend (km h−1 yr−1) corresponding to one of the nine scenarios given in Extended Data Table 4. Since some scenarios are redundant for a given basin, only the first occurrence is plotted. Stippling indicates significance at the 5% level based on a two-tailed Student’s t-test. Each panel corresponds to a different region: GL (a), NH (b), SH (c), NA (d), EP (e), WP (f), NI (g), SP (h) and SI (i).

Extended Data Table 1 Change-point analysis results for the basin TCS time series plotted in Fig. 1
Extended Data Table 2 Relative weights based on the Bayesian information criterion
Extended Data Table 3 Change-point analysis results for regional mode index time series
Extended Data Table 4 Scenarios for the trend analyses in Extended Data Fig. 1
Extended Data Table 5 Statistics for trend analysis

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

This file contains the Supplementary Methods, including sections describing: preparation of the storm track data and computation of translational speeds; Bayesian information criterion (BIC) analyses; generation of the curves in Fig. 2 and miscellaneous statistical considerations

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Lanzante, J.R. Uncertainties in tropical-cyclone translation speed. Nature 570, E6–E15 (2019).

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