Uncertainties in tropical-cyclone translation speed

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Fig. 1: Time series of annually averaged TCS with model fits by region.
Fig. 2: Latitudinal profiles of TCS and change in sampling due to satellites.

Data availability

The tropical-cyclone data analysed in this study were taken from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS; https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ibtracs/, file ftp://eclipse.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/ibtracs/v03r10/all/csv/Allstorms.ibtracs_all.v03r10.csv). Indices of a variety of the most commonly cited regional climate modes of variability were obtained from several sources: the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL; https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/climateindices/), the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI; https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/), the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR; https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/), the University of East Anglia (UEA; https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/nao/) and the British Antarctic Survey (BAS; http://www.nerc-bas.ac.uk/public/icd/gjma/newsam.1957.2007.seas.txt).

Code availability

The FORTRAN code used to perform the change-point analyses6 is available from the author on request.

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Acknowledgements

I thank T. Knutson and C. Stock for comments on an earlier version of this manuscript, and J. Kossin for providing information and feedback on the processing of the IBTrACS data.

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Correspondence to John R. Lanzante.

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Extended data figures and tables

Extended Data Fig. 1 Trends and significances by scenario and region.

Each bar represents the trend (km h−1 yr−1) corresponding to one of the nine scenarios given in Extended Data Table 4. Since some scenarios are redundant for a given basin, only the first occurrence is plotted. Stippling indicates significance at the 5% level based on a two-tailed Student’s t-test. Each panel corresponds to a different region: GL (a), NH (b), SH (c), NA (d), EP (e), WP (f), NI (g), SP (h) and SI (i).

Extended Data Table 1 Change-point analysis results for the basin TCS time series plotted in Fig. 1
Extended Data Table 2 Relative weights based on the Bayesian information criterion
Extended Data Table 3 Change-point analysis results for regional mode index time series
Extended Data Table 4 Scenarios for the trend analyses in Extended Data Fig. 1
Extended Data Table 5 Statistics for trend analysis

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

This file contains the Supplementary Methods, including sections describing: preparation of the storm track data and computation of translational speeds; Bayesian information criterion (BIC) analyses; generation of the curves in Fig. 2 and miscellaneous statistical considerations

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Lanzante, J.R. Uncertainties in tropical-cyclone translation speed. Nature 570, E6–E15 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1223-2

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