Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

Wetland carbon storage controlled by millennial-scale variation in relative sea-level rise

Abstract

Coastal wetlands (mangrove, tidal marsh and seagrass) sustain the highest rates of carbon sequestration per unit area of all natural systems1,2, primarily because of their comparatively high productivity and preservation of organic carbon within sedimentary substrates3. Climate change and associated relative sea-level rise (RSLR) have been proposed to increase the rate of organic-carbon burial in coastal wetlands in the first half of the twenty-first century4, but these carbon–climate feedback effects have been modelled to diminish over time as wetlands are increasingly submerged and carbon stores become compromised by erosion4,5. Here we show that tidal marshes on coastlines that experienced rapid RSLR over the past few millennia (in the late Holocene, from about 4,200 years ago to the present) have on average 1.7 to 3.7 times higher soil carbon concentrations within 20 centimetres of the surface than those subject to a long period of sea-level stability. This disparity increases with depth, with soil carbon concentrations reduced by a factor of 4.9 to 9.1 at depths of 50 to 100 centimetres. We analyse the response of a wetland exposed to recent rapid RSLR following subsidence associated with pillar collapse in an underlying mine and demonstrate that the gain in carbon accumulation and elevation is proportional to the accommodation space (that is, the space available for mineral and organic material accumulation) created by RSLR. Our results suggest that coastal wetlands characteristic of tectonically stable coastlines have lower carbon storage owing to a lack of accommodation space and that carbon sequestration increases according to the vertical and lateral accommodation space6 created by RSLR. Such wetlands will provide long-term mitigating feedback effects that are relevant to global climate–carbon modelling.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Rent or buy this article

Prices vary by article type

from$1.95

to$39.95

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Fig. 1: Millennial-scale influence of RSL on wetland evolution and accommodation space.
Fig. 2: Influence of late-Holocene RSLR on carbon concentration.
Fig. 3: Conceptual links between mineral and organic-matter accumulation and realized accommodation space.
Fig. 4: Sediment accumulation and character related to available accommodation space.

Data availability

The data used in the global analysis of carbon concentration with respect to Holocene RSLR are provided in the Supplementary Information. The data that support the Chain Valley Bay study site analysis are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

References

  1. Donato, D. C. et al. Mangroves among the most carbon-rich forests in the tropics. Nat. Geosci. 4, 293–297 (2011).

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  2. Mcleod, E. et al. A blueprint for blue carbon: toward an improved understanding of the role of vegetated coastal habitats in sequestering CO2. Front. Ecol. Environ. 9, 552–560 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Duarte, C. M., Middelburg, J. & Caraco, N. Major role of marine vegetation on the oceanic carbon cycle. Biogeosciences 2, 1–8 (2005).

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  4. Kirwan, M. L. & Mudd, S. M. Response of salt-marsh carbon accumulation to climate change. Nature 489, 550–553 (2012).

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  5. DeLaune, R. & White, J. Will coastal wetlands continue to sequester carbon in response to an increase in global sea level? A case study of the rapidly subsiding Mississippi river deltaic plain. Clim. Change 110, 297–314 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Schuerch, M. et al. Future response of global coastal wetlands to sea-level rise. Nature 561, 231–234 (2018).

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  7. Holmquist, J. R. et al. Accuracy and precision of tidal wetland soil carbon mapping in the conterminous United States. Sci. Rep. 8, 9478 (2018); corrigendum 8, 15219 (2018).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  8. Murray-Wallace, C. V. & Woodroffe, C. D. Quaternary Sea-Level Changes: A Global Perspective (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 2014).

    Book  Google Scholar 

  9. Clark, J. A., Farrell, W. E. & Peltier, W. R. Global changes in postglacial sea level: a numerical calculation. Quat. Res. 9, 265–287 (1978).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Redfield, A. C. Development of a New England salt marsh. Ecol. Monogr. 42, 201–237 (1972).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Morris, J. T., Sundareshwar, P. V., Nietch, C. T., Kjerfve, B. & Cahoon, D. R. Responses of coastal wetlands to rising sea-levels. Ecology 83, 2869–2877 (2002).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Lovelock, C. E. et al. The vulnerability of Indo-Pacific mangrove forests to sea-level rise. Nature 526, 559–563 (2015).

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  13. Adam, P. Saltmarsh Ecology (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 1990).

    Book  Google Scholar 

  14. Hiraishi, T. et al. (eds) 2013 Supplement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Wetlands. Technical Report (IPCC, 2014).

  15. Saintilan, N. & Hashimoto, T. R. Mangrove-saltmarsh dynamics on a bay-head delta in the Hawkesbury River estuary, New South Wales, Australia. Hydrobiologia 413, 95–102 (1999).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Woodroffe, C. D., Thom, B. G. & Chappell, J. Development of widespread mangrove swamps in mid-Holocene times in northern Australia. Nature 317, 711–713 (1985).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  17. Allen, J. R. L. Morphodynamics of Holocene salt marshes: a review sketch from the Atlantic and Southern North Sea coasts of Europe. Quat. Sci. Rev. 19, 1155–1231 (2000).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  18. Pethick, J. S. Long-term accretion rates on tidal salt marshes. J. Sediment. Res. 51, 571–577 (1981).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Ouyang, X. & Lee, S. Updated estimates of carbon accumulation rates in coastal marsh sediments. Biogeosciences 11, 5057–5071 (2014).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  20. Kirwan, M. L. & Guntenspergen, G. R. Influence of tidal range on the stability of coastal marshland. J. Geophys. Res. 115, F02009 (2010).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  21. Krauss, K. W. et al. How mangrove forests adjust to rising sea level. New Phytol. 202, 19–34 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Langley, J. A., McKee, K. L., Cahoon, D. R., Cherry, J. A. & Megonigal, J. P. Elevated CO2 stimulates marsh elevation gain, counterbalancing sea-level rise. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 106, 6182–6186 (2009).

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  23. Sloss, C. R., Murray-Wallace, C. V. & Jones, B. G. Holocene sea-level change on the southeast coast of Australia: a review. Holocene 17, 999–1014 (2007).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  24. Lambeck, K. & Nakada, M. Late Pleistocene and Holocene sea-level change along the Australian coast. Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclimatol. Palaeoecol. 89, 143–176 (1990).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Kelleway, J. J. et al. Seventy years of continuous encroachment substantially increases ‘blue carbon’ capacity as mangroves replace intertidal salt marshes. Glob. Change Biol. 22, 1097–1109 (2016).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  26. Duke, N. C. et al. A world without mangroves? Science 317, 41–42 (2007).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  27. Duarte, C., Dennison, W., Orth, R. & Carruthers, T. The charisma of coastal ecosystems: addressing the imbalance. Estuaries Coasts 31, 233–238 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Crooks, S., Herr, D., Tamelander, J., Laffoley, D. & Vandever, J. Mitigating Climate Change through Restoration and Management of Coastal Wetlands and Near-Shore Marine Ecosystems: Challenges and Opportunities (World Bank Environment Department, Washington DC, 2011).

    Google Scholar 

  29. Pontee, N. Defining coastal squeeze: a discussion. Ocean Coast. Manage. 84, 204–207 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. Kirwan, M. L. & Megonigal, J. P. Tidal wetland stability in the face of human impacts and sea-level rise. Nature 504, 53–60 (2013).

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  31. Chmura, G. L., Anisfeld, S. C., Cahoon, D. R. & Lynch, J. C. Global carbon sequestration in tidal, saline wetland soils. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 17, 1111 (2003).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  32. Craft, C., Seneca, E. & Broome, S. Loss on ignition and Kjeldahl digestion for estimating organic carbon and total nitrogen in estuarine marsh soils: calibration with dry combustion. Estuaries Coasts 14, 175–179 (1991).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  33. Shennan, I. & Horton, B. Holocene land- and sea-level changes in Great Britain. J. Quaternary Sci. 17, 511–526 (2002).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  34. Pluet, J. & Pirazzoli, P. World Atlas of Holocene Sea-Level Changes Vol. 58 (Elsevier, Amsterdam, 1991).

  35. Verbeke, G. in Linear Mixed Models in Practice (eds Verbeke, G. & Molenberghs, G.) 63–153 (Springer, New York, 1997).

  36. von Ende, C. N. in Design and Analysis of Ecological Experiments (eds Scheiner, S. M. & Gurevitch, J.) 134–157 (Oxford Univ. Press, New York, 2001).

  37. Hollins, S. et al. Reconstructing recent sedimentation in two urbanised coastal lagoons (NSW, Australia) using radioisotopes and geochemistry. J. Paleolimnol. 46, 579–596 (2011).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  38. Appleby, P. in Tracking Environmental Change Using Lake Sediments (eds Smol, J. P. et al.) 171–203 (Kluwer, Dordrecht 2001).

Download references

Acknowledgements

This research was supported by the Australian Research Council (FT130100532), AINSE (ALNGRA13046) and the UOW Global Challenges Program. The Smithsonian Environmental Research Center supported J.P.M., J.R.H, M.L. and L.S.-B. The data curation efforts of J.R.H. and data collection and synthesis efforts of J.P.M. were supported by United States National Science Foundation grants to the Coastal Carbon Research Coordination Network (DEB-1655622) and the Global Change Research Wetland (DEB-0950080, DEB-1457100 and DEB-1557009) and by a NASA Carbon Monitoring System programme grant (NNH14AY67I). L.S.-B. was supported by a Smithsonian Institution MarineGEO Postdoctoral Fellowship. This is contribution number 32 of the Smithsonian’s MarineGEO Network. The authors acknowledge J. Curran for assistance with sample preparation, S. Rasel, S. Oyston and M. Rupic for assistance with data collation and the students who undertook fieldwork as part of this research.

Reviewer information

Nature thanks Andrew Ashton and the other anonymous reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Contributions

K.R., N.S. and C.D.W. developed the premise of the study. J.J.K., N.S., J.P.M., J.B.A., J.R.H., M.L., L.S.-B. and K.R. gathered and produced input data for the global analysis. J.J.K. carried out global-scale statistical analyses. K.R., D.M. and A.Z. undertook local-study fieldwork, sample preparation, laboratory and statistical analyses. K.R., J.J.K., N.S. and C.D.W. wrote the paper. All authors contributed to editing and revising the paper.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Kerrylee Rogers.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Additional information

Publisher’s note: Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Extended data figures and tables

Extended Data Fig. 1 Relationship between late-Holocene RSLR and carbon concentration for data-poor late-Holocene RSLR zones and transitional zones.

ad, Box plots of tidal-marsh soil C concentration for data-poor Holocene RSLR zones and transitional regions: zone I (a), zone II–III transition (b), zone III (c) and zone IV–V transition (d).

Extended Data Fig. 2 210Pb and 137Cs activity of submerged and mangrove sediments.

ad, Submerged-core supported and total (a) and unsupported (b) 210Pb activity, 137Cs activity (c) and CRS-based 210Pb chronology (d). eh, Mangrove-core supported and total (e) and unsupported (f) 210Pb activity, 137Cs activity (g) and CRS-based 210Pb chronology (h). The grey validation lines confirm that the 137Cs activity peak corresponds to a sediment date of 1963, in agreement with CRS-based 210Pb chronology (core dating occurred in 2014).

Source Data

Extended Data Fig. 3 Relationship between sea-surface salinity and C concentration over three depth intervals.

ac, Regression analysis of C concentration and global-scale sea-surface salinity, derived from the NASA Aquarius Satellite Mission, exhibited extremely weak relationships over the depth intervals 0–20 cm (a; R2 = 0.07, P < 0.001), 20–50 cm (b; R2 = 0.07, P < 0.01) and 50–100 cm (c; R2 = 0.06, P < 0.001). Soil %C values are low for zones I and IV in part owing to the removal of roots before analysis (see Supplementary Table 1).

Source Data

Extended Data Fig. 4 Relationship between late-Holocene RSLR and C density for data-rich late-Holocene RSLR zones and transitional zones.

ad, Box plots of tidal-marsh soil C density for data-rich Holocene RSLR zones and transitional regions: zone I–II transition (a), zone II (b), zone IV (c), and zone V (d).

Source Data

Extended Data Table 1 Results of the linear mixed model used for the dependent variable of tidal-marsh soil carbon concentration
Extended Data Table 2 Results of linear-mixed-model pairwise comparisons among Holocene RSLR zones for the dependent variable of tidal-marsh soil carbon concentration
Extended Data Table 3 Results of global data compilation of tidal marsh soil carbon concentration and RM-ANOVA
Extended Data Table 4 Results of the linear mixed model for the dependent variable of tidal marsh soil carbon density (in grams of carbon per cubic centimetre)
Extended Data Table 5 Results of linear-mixed-model pairwise comparisons among Holocene RSLR zones for the dependent variable of tidal-marsh soil carbon density (in grams of carbon per cubic centimetre)
Extended Data Table 6 Results of global data compilation of tidal marsh soil carbon density and RM-ANOVA

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

This file contains Supplementary Methods, Supplementary Table and Supplementary References. The Supplementary Methods includes a detailed site description of Chain Valley Bay, Lake Macquarie, Australia, and the method for analysing C density, and the influence of global scale climatic and sea surface salinity variability on carbon concentration. The Supplementary Table includes the compilation of tidal marsh soil carbon concentration used in this study and associated Supplementary References.

Source data

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Rogers, K., Kelleway, J.J., Saintilan, N. et al. Wetland carbon storage controlled by millennial-scale variation in relative sea-level rise. Nature 567, 91–95 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-0951-7

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-0951-7

This article is cited by

Comments

By submitting a comment you agree to abide by our Terms and Community Guidelines. If you find something abusive or that does not comply with our terms or guidelines please flag it as inappropriate.

Search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing