a, Lead–lag correlations (solid black line) of timeseries obtained from spatially averaging the daily numbers of EREs in boxes in Europe (EUR; 42° N to 50° N, 3° E to 15° E) and SCA. The timeseries are low-pass-filtered (LP) at a cutoff period of 8 days (Methods section ‘Identification of specific times with high synchronization’). b, Composite anomalies of TRMM rainfall for days with high numbers of EREs in Europe that are followed by associated EREs in SCA. c, Same as b, but 3 days later. d, Composite anomalies of the meridional wind component v at 250 hPa for the same time steps as in b. e, Same as d, but 3 days later. f–j, Same as a–e, but for a cutoff of 12 days.