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Extended data figures and tables
This figure is analogous to figure 2a in Cox et al.1, but without data from ACCESS1-0, inmcm4, IPSL-CM5B-LR, MPI-ESM-LR, GFDL-ESM2G, MIROC5 and bcc-csm1-1-m because not all required simulations were available for these models. Black lines correspond to Ψ calculated from the historical experiment, which includes all forcings. Blue lines correspond to Ψ calculated from the historical–natural experiment (‘historicalNat’), which includes only forcings from changes in incoming solar radiation and volcanic aerosols. Red lines correspond to Ψ calculated from the historical greenhouse gas experiment (‘historicalGHG’), which includes only forcing from well-mixed greenhouse gases (and ozone in some models). Thin lines are individual model-ensemble members (r1i1p1) and thick lines are multi-model means (MMMs). The data show that Ψ (as calculated by Cox et al.1) is non-stationary and inflated towards the end of the record, even in the case where models are forced by only greenhouse gases.
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Brown, P.T., Stolpe, M.B. & Caldeira, K. Assumptions for emergent constraints. Nature 563, E1–E3 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0638-5
- Emergent Constraints
- Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS)
- Global Mean Temperature
- External Impulsive Forces
- NOAA Observations
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