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The many possible climates from the Paris Agreement’s aim of 1.5 °C warming

Nature volume 558, pages 41–49 (2018)Cite this article

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Abstract

The United Nations’ Paris Agreement includes the aim of pursuing efforts to limit global warming to only 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. However, it is not clear what the resulting climate would look like across the globe and over time. Here we show that trajectories towards a ‘1.5 °C warmer world’ may result in vastly different outcomes at regional scales, owing to variations in the pace and location of climate change and their interactions with society’s mitigation, adaptation and vulnerabilities to climate change. Pursuing policies that are considered to be consistent with the 1.5 °C aim will not completely remove the risk of global temperatures being much higher or of some regional extremes reaching dangerous levels for ecosystems and societies over the coming decades.

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Fig. 1: Temporal and spatial dimensions of 1.5 °C warmer worlds.
Fig. 2: Possible outcomes with respect to global temperature and regional climate anomalies from typical scenarios compatible with 1.5 °C warming and 2 °C warming at peak warming.
Fig. 3: Possible outcomes with respect to global temperature and regional climate anomalies from typical scenarios compatible with 1.5 °C warming and 2 °C warming in 2100.
Fig. 4: The stochastic noise and model-based uncertainty of realized climate at 1.5 °C.

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Acknowledgements

S.I.S. and R.W. acknowledge the European Research Council (ERC) ‘DROUGHT-HEAT’ project funded by the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme (grant agreement FP7-IDEAS-ERC-617518). J.R. acknowledges the Oxford Martin School Visiting Fellowship programme for support. R.S. acknowledges the European Union’s H2020 project CRESCENDO “Coordinated Research in Earth Systems and Climate: Experiments, kNowledge, Dissemination and Outreach” (grant agreement H2020-641816). O.H.G. acknowledges support of the Australia Research Council Laureate program. This work contributes to the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Grand Challenge on Extremes. We acknowledge the WCRP Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modelling groups for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP the US Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals.

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Nature thanks S. Davis, K. Tachiiri and the other anonymous reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland

    Sonia I. Seneviratne, Joeri Rogelj & Richard Wartenburger

  2. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria

    Joeri Rogelj

  3. Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

    Joeri Rogelj, Myles R. Allen, Michelle Cain & Richard J. Millar

  4. Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, London, UK

    Joeri Rogelj

  5. Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Météo-France/CNRS, Toulouse, France

    Roland Séférian

  6. Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA

    Kristie L. Ebi

  7. School of Agriculture and Environment, University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia, Australia

    Neville Ellis & Petra Tschakert

  8. Global Change Institute, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia

    Ove Hoegh-Guldberg

  9. University of Bristol, Bristol, UK

    Antony J. Payne

  10. Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany

    Carl-Friedrich Schleussner

  11. IRITHESys, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany

    Carl-Friedrich Schleussner

  12. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany

    Carl-Friedrich Schleussner

  13. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK

    Rachel F. Warren

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  1. Sonia I. Seneviratne
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Contributions

S.I.S. coordinated the design and writing of the article, with contributions from all co-authors. J.R. provided the emissions scenario data processed in Table 1. R.S. computed the scenario summary statistics of Table 1. R.W. computed the regional projections statistics of Table 1, as well as Figs. 2–4. S.I.S. prepared Fig. 1, with support from P.T. and J.R. J.R., R.S., M.A., M.C. and R.M. co-designed the analyses of emissions scenarios. K.L.E., N.E., O.H.G., A.J.P., C.F.S., P.T. and R.F.W. provided assessments on physical, ecosystem and human impacts. S.I.S. drafted the first version of the manuscript, with inputs from J.R., R.S. and M.A. All authors contributed to and commented on the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Sonia I. Seneviratne.

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Seneviratne, S.I., Rogelj, J., Séférian, R. et al. The many possible climates from the Paris Agreement’s aim of 1.5 °C warming. Nature 558, 41–49 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0181-4

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