Extended Data Table 2 Probability that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C will generate benefits relative to 2 °C warming

From: Large potential reduction in economic damages under UN mitigation targets

  1. Left panels show benefits in terms of percentage change in global GDP per capita by mid-century and the end of the century. For instance, by mid-century under RCP4.5 there is a 42% probability of benefits exceeding 2.5% of global GDP per cap. Right panels show benefits in terms of cumulative change in global GDP by mid-century and the end of the century, under three different discount rates for each relevant RCP. For instance, by the end of the century, there is a 50% probability of benefits exceeding US$50 trillion using a discount rate of 2.5%.