Fig. 3: Country-level impact of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C relative to 2 °C. | Nature

Fig. 3: Country-level impact of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C relative to 2 °C.

From: Large potential reduction in economic damages under UN mitigation targets

Fig. 3

a, b, Median estimates of impacts on change in GDP per capita under 1.5 °C versus 2 °C, for mid-century and the end of the century. Positive values indicate reduced damages at 1.5 °C of global warming as compared to 2 °C. c, Median estimated impacts as a function of each country’s baseline GDP per capita, with each country weighted equally. Lines represent local polynomial regression fits to the data with the corresponding 95% confidence intervals shaded in grey. df, As in ac, but for the probability of per capita GDP gain, calculated as the percentage of bootstrap response functions projecting a net gain in a country’s GDP per capita under 1.5 °C of global warming as compared to 2 °C.