Perspective | Published:

Resolving uncertainty in a social world

Subjects

Abstract

Consider the range of social behaviours we engage in every day. In each case, there are a multitude of unknowns, reflecting the many sources of uncertainty inherent to social inference. We describe how uncertainty manifests in social environments (the thoughts and intentions of others are largely hidden, making it difficult to predict a person’s behaviour) and why people are motivated to reduce the aversive feelings generated by uncertainty. We propose a three-part model whereby social uncertainty is initially reduced through automatic modes of inference (such as impression formation) before more control-demanding modes of inference (such as perspective-taking) are deployed to narrow one’s predictions even more. Finally, social uncertainty is attenuated further through learning processes that update these predictions based on new information. Our framework integrates research across fields to offer an account of the mechanisms motivating social cognition and action, laying the groundwork for future experiments that can illuminate the impact of uncertainty on social cognition.

Access optionsAccess options

Rent or Buy article

Get time limited or full article access on ReadCube.

from$8.99

All prices are NET prices.

Additional information

Publisher’s note: Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

References

  1. 1.

    Fehr, E. & Camerer, C. F. Trends Cogn. Sci. 11, 419–427 (2007).

  2. 2.

    Ruff, C. C. & Fehr, E. Nat. Rev. Neurosci. 15, 549–562 (2014).

  3. 3.

    Fiske, S. T. & Neuberg, S. L. Adv. Exp. Soc. Psychol. 23, 1–74 (1990).

  4. 4.

    Festinger, L. Hum. Relat. 7, 117–140 (1954).

  5. 5.

    Bernoulli, D. Econometrica 22, 23–36 (1954).

  6. 6.

    Alchian, A. A. J. Polit. Econ. 58, 211–221 (1950).

  7. 7.

    Camerer, C. Behavioral Game Theory: Experiments in Strategic Interaction. (Russell Sage Foundation; Princeton University Press, 2003).

  8. 8.

    Fehr, E., Fischbacher, U. & Kosfeld, M. Am. Econ. Rev. 95, 346–351 (2005).

  9. 9.

    Berg, J., Dickhaut, J. & McCabe, K. Games Econ. Behav. 10, 122–142 (1995).

  10. 10.

    Krueger, F. et al. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 104, 20084–20089 (2007).

  11. 11.

    Bechara, A. J. Gambl. Stud. 19, 23–51 (2003).

  12. 12.

    Albert, D., Chein, J. & Steinberg, L. Curr. Dir. Psychol. Sci. 22, 114–120 (2013).

  13. 13.

    King-Casas, B. et al. Science 308, 78–83 (2005).

  14. 14.

    Tarantola, T., Kumaran, D., Dayan, P. & De Martino, B. Nat. Commun. 8, 817 (2017).

  15. 15.

    Hirsh, J. B., Mar, R. A. & Peterson, J. B. Psychol. Rev. 119, 304–320 (2012).

  16. 16.

    Kruglanski, A. W. & Webster, D. M. Psychol. Rev. 103, 263–283 (1996).

  17. 17.

    Neuberg, S. L. & Newsom, J. T. J. Pers. Soc. Psychol. 65, 113–131 (1993).

  18. 18.

    Cacioppo, J. T. & Petty, R. E. J. Pers. Soc. Psychol. 42, 116–131 (1982).

  19. 19.

    Griffiths, T. L., Kemp, C. & Tenenbaum, J. B. Bayesian models of cognition. in The Cambridge Handbook of Computational Psychology (ed. Sun, R.) 59–100 (2008).

  20. 20.

    Friston, K. Nat. Rev. Neurosci. 11, 127–138 (2010).

  21. 21.

    Bar, M. Trends Cogn. Sci. 11, 280–289 (2007).

  22. 22.

    Barrett, L. F. & Simmons, W. K. Nat. Rev. Neurosci. 16, 419–429 (2015).

  23. 23.

    Bach, D. R. & Dolan, R. J. Nat. Rev. Neurosci. 13, 572–586 (2012).

  24. 24.

    Kagan, J. Rev. Gen. Psychol. 13, 290–301 (2009).

  25. 25.

    Körding, K. P. & Wolpert, D. M. Trends Cogn. Sci. 10, 319–326 (2006).

  26. 26.

    Griffiths, T. L. & Tenenbaum, J. B. J. Exp. Psychol. Gen. 140, 725–743 (2011).

  27. 27.

    Calabrese, R. & Berger, C. R. Hum. Commun. Res. 1, 99–112 (1975).

  28. 28.

    Glimcher, P. W. Cogn. Affect. Behav. Neurosci. 8, 348–354 (2008).

  29. 29.

    Knight, F.H. Risk, Uncertainty and Profit. (Courier Corporation, 2012).

  30. 30.

    Daw, N. D., Niv, Y. & Dayan, P. Nat. Neurosci. 8, 1704–1711 (2005).

  31. 31.

    Shannon, C. E. Bell System Tech. J. 27, 379–423 (1948).

  32. 32.

    Apperly, I. A., Back, E., Samson, D. & France, L. Cognition 106, 1093–1108 (2008).

  33. 33.

    Decety, J., Smith, K. E., Norman, G. J. & Halpern, J. World Psychiatry 13, 233–237 (2014).

  34. 34.

    Milliken, F. P. Acad. Manage. Rev. 12, 133–143 (1987).

  35. 35.

    Camerer, C. & Weber, M. J. Risk Uncertain. 5, 325–370 (1992).

  36. 36.

    Downey, H. K. & Slocum, J. W. Acad. Manage. J. 18, 562–578 (1975).

  37. 37.

    Gilboa, I. & Schmeidler, D. J. Math. Econ. 18, 141–153 (1989).

  38. 38.

    Wolpert, D. M. & Landy, M. S. Curr. Opin. Neurobiol. 22, 996–1003 (2012).

  39. 39.

    Summerfield, C. & Tsetsos, K. Trends Cogn. Sci. 19, 27–34 (2015).

  40. 40.

    Frank, M. J. et al. J. Neurosci. 35, 485–494 (2015).

  41. 41.

    Yu, A. J. & Dayan, P. Neuron 46, 681–692 (2005).

  42. 42.

    Behrens, T. E. J., Woolrich, M. W., Walton, M. E. & Rushworth, M. F. S. Nat. Neurosci. 10, 1214–1221 (2007).

  43. 43.

    Gray, J.A. & McNaughton, N. The Neuropsychology of Anxiety: An Enquiry into the Function of the Septo-hippocampal System Vol. 33 (Oxford University Press, 2003).

  44. 44.

    Frijda, N. H., Kuipers, P. & Ter Schure, E. J. Pers. Soc. Psychol. 57, 212–218 (1989).

  45. 45.

    Grupe, D. W. & Nitschke, J. B. Nat. Rev. Neurosci. 14, 488–501 (2013).

  46. 46.

    Kahneman, D., Slovic, P. & Tversky, A. Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. (Cambridge University Press, 1982).

  47. 47.

    FeldmanHall, O., Glimcher, P., Baker, A. L. & Phelps, E. A. J. Exp. Psychol. Gen. 145, 1255–1262 (2016).

  48. 48.

    Bechara, A., Damasio, A. R., Damasio, H. & Anderson, S. W. Cognition 50, 7–15 (1994).

  49. 49.

    Weary, G. & Edwards, J. A. J. Pers. Soc. Psychol. 67, 308–318 (1994).

  50. 50.

    Kagan, J. J. Pers. Soc. Psychol. 22, 51–66 (1972).

  51. 51.

    Thornton, M. A. & Tamir, D. I. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 114, 5982–5987 (2017).

  52. 52.

    Cacioppo, J. T., Hughes, M. E., Waite, L. J., Hawkley, L. C. & Thisted, R. A. Psychol. Aging 21, 140–151 (2006).

  53. 53.

    Hawkley, L. C. & Cacioppo, J. T. Ann. Behav. Med. 40, 218–227 (2010).

  54. 54.

    Fiske, S.T. in Affect and Cognition: The 17th Annual Carnegie Symposium on Cognition (eds. Clark, M. S. & Fiske, S. T.) 55–78 (Erlbaum, 1982).

  55. 55.

    Fiske, S.T. in Handbook of Social Psychology Vol. 2 (eds. Fiske, S. T., Gilbert, D. T., & Lindzey, G.) 357–411 (McGraw-Hill, 1998).

  56. 56.

    Fiske, S.T., Lin, M. & Neuberg, S.L. in Dual-Process Theories in Social Psychology (eds. Chaiken, S., & Trope, Y.) 231–254 (1999).

  57. 57.

    Todorov, A., Mandisodza, A. N., Goren, A. & Hall, C. C. Science 308, 1623–1626 (2005).

  58. 58.

    Todorov, A. & Mende-Siedlecki, P. in The Oxford Handbook of Cognitive Neuroscience (eds. Ochsner, K. & Kosslyn, S.) Ch. 11 (Oxford University Press, 2013).

  59. 59.

    Tory Higgins, E., Rholes, W. S. & Jones, C. R. J. Exp. Soc. Psychol. 13, 141–154 (1977).

  60. 60.

    Baron, S. G., Gobbini, M. I., Engell, A. D. & Todorov, A. Soc. Cogn. Affect. Neurosci. 6, 572–581 (2011).

  61. 61.

    North, M. S., Todorov, A. & Osherson, D. N. J. Nonverbal Behav. 36, 227–233 (2012).

  62. 62.

    Mende-Siedlecki, P., Said, C. P. & Todorov, A. Soc. Cogn. Affect. Neurosci. 8, 285–299 (2013).

  63. 63.

    Hughes, B. L., Zaki, J. & Ambady, N. Soc. Cogn. Affect. Neurosci. 12, 49–60 (2017).

  64. 64.

    Posner, M.I. & Snyder, C.R.R. in Information Processing and Cognition: The Loyola Symposium (ed. Solso, R. L.) 55–85 (Erlbaum, 1975).

  65. 65.

    Shiffrin, R. M. & Schneider, W. Psychol. Rev. 84, 127–190 (1977).

  66. 66.

    Klein, N. & O’Brien, E. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 115, 13222–13227 (2018).

  67. 67.

    van den Bos, K. J. Pers. Soc. Psychol. 80, 931–941 (2001).

  68. 68.

    van Dijk, E., Wilke, H., Wilke, M. & Metman, L. J. Exp. Soc. Psychol. 35, 109–135 (1999).

  69. 69.

    Bargh, J. A. & Pietromonaco, P. J. Pers. Soc. Psychol. 43, 437–449 (1982).

  70. 70.

    Koster-Hale, J. & Saxe, R. Neuron 79, 836–848 (2013).

  71. 71.

    Schaafsma, S. M., Pfaff, D. W., Spunt, R. P. & Adolphs, R. Trends Cogn. Sci. 19, 65–72 (2015).

  72. 72.

    Baker, C.L., Saxe, R. & Tenenbaum, J.B. Bayesian theory of mind: modelling joint belief-desire attribution. Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society (2011).

  73. 73.

    Devaine, M., Hollard, G. & Daunizeau, J. PLOS Comput. Biol. 10, e1003992 (2014).

  74. 74.

    Devaine, M. et al. PLOS Comput. Biol. 13, e1005833 (2017).

  75. 75.

    Zaki, J. & Ochsner, K. N. Nat. Neurosci. 15, 675–680 (2012).

  76. 76.

    FeldmanHall, O., Dalgleish, T., Evans, D. & Mobbs, D. Neuroimage 105, 347–356 (2015).

  77. 77.

    Olsson, A. et al. Psychol. Sci. 27, 25–33 (2016).

  78. 78.

    Miller, S. A. Psychol. Bull. 135, 749–773 (2009).

  79. 79.

    Wellman, H. M., Cross, D. & Watson, J. Child Dev. 72, 655–684 (2001).

  80. 80.

    Fiske, S. T. & Taylor, S.E. Social Cognition (McGraw-Hill, 1991).

  81. 81.

    Zaki, J. Trends Cogn. Sci. 21, 59–60 (2017).

  82. 82.

    Cameron, D., Hutcherson, C., Ferguson, A., Scheffer, J. & Inzlicht, M. Empathy is a choice: people are empathy misers because they are cognitive misers. Rotman School of Management Working Paper No. 2887903 (2016).

  83. 83.

    Cohen, J. D., Dunbar, K. & McClelland, J. L. Psychol. Rev. 97, 332–361 (1990).

  84. 84.

    MacLeod, C. M. & Dunbar, K. J Exp. Psychol. Learn. 14, 126–135 (1988).

  85. 85.

    Shenhav, A. Psychol. Inq. 28, 148–152 (2017).

  86. 86.

    Mata, R., Josef, A. K., Samanez-Larkin, G. R. & Hertwig, R. Ann. NY Acad. Sci. 1235, 18–29 (2011).

  87. 87.

    Grubb, M. A., Tymula, A., Gilaie-Dotan, S., Glimcher, P. W. & Levy, I. Nat. Commun. 7, 13822 (2016).

  88. 88.

    Tymula, A., Rosenberg Belmaker, L. A., Ruderman, L., Glimcher, P. W. & Levy, I. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 110, 17143–17148 (2013).

  89. 89.

    Surtees, A., Apperly, I. & Samson, D. Cognition 150, 43–52 (2016).

  90. 90.

    Gallagher, H. L. & Frith, C. D. Trends Cogn. Sci. 7, 77–83 (2003).

  91. 91.

    Singer, T. Neurosci. Biobehav. Rev. 30, 855–863 (2006).

  92. 92.

    Singer, T. et al. Science 303, 1157–1162 (2004).

  93. 93.

    Neumann, R. & Strack, F. J. Pers. Soc. Psychol. 79, 211–223 (2000).

  94. 94.

    Barsade, S. G. Adm. Sci. Q. 47, 644–675 (2002).

  95. 95.

    Frith, C. D. & Frith, U. Brain Res. 1079, 36–46 (2006).

  96. 96.

    Gintis, H. & Fehr, E. Behav. Brain Sci. 35, 28–29 (2012).

  97. 97.

    Bandura, A. Adv. Exp. Soc. Psychol. 2, 1–55 (1965).

  98. 98.

    Behrens, T. E., Hunt, L. T., Woolrich, M. W. & Rushworth, M. F. Nature 456, 245–249 (2008).

  99. 99.

    Debiec, J. & Olsson, A. Trends Cogn. Sci. 21, 546–555 (2017).

  100. 100.

    Apps, M. A., Lesage, E. & Ramnani, N. J. Neurosci. 35, 2904–2913 (2015).

  101. 101.

    FeldmanHall, O. & Dunsmoor, J. E. Perspect. Psychol. Sci. 14, 175–196 (2018).

  102. 102.

    FeldmanHall, O., Dunsmoor, J. E., Kroes, M. C. W., Lackovic, S. & Phelps, E. A. Psychol. Sci. 28, 1160–1170 (2017).

  103. 103.

    Nassar, M. R., Wilson, R. C., Heasly, B. & Gold, J. I. J. Neurosci. 30, 12366–12378 (2010).

  104. 104.

    Courville, A. C., Daw, N. D. & Touretzky, D. S. Trends Cogn. Sci. 10, 294–300 (2006).

  105. 105.

    Sanfey, A. G., Rilling, J. K., Aronson, J. A., Nystrom, L. E. & Cohen, J. D. Science 300, 1755–1758 (2003).

  106. 106.

    Tomlin, D. et al. Science 312, 1047–1050 (2006).

  107. 107.

    Mobbs, D. et al. Soc. Cogn. Affect. Neurosci. 10, 1323–1328 (2015).

  108. 108.

    Apps, M. A., Rushworth, M. F. & Chang, S. W. Neuron 90, 692–707 (2016).

  109. 109.

    Apps, M. A. J. & Sallet. J. Trends Cogn. Sci. 21, 151–152 (2017).

  110. 110.

    Sutton, R. S. B. Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction. (MIT Press, 1998).

  111. 111.

    Laquitaine, S. & Gardner, J. L. Neuron 97, 462–474.e6 (2018).

  112. 112.

    Lieder, F., Griffiths, T. L., M Huys, Q. J. & Goodman, N. D. Psychon. Bull. Rev. 25, 322–349 (2018).

  113. 113.

    Bogacz, R. Trends Cogn. Sci. 11, 118–125 (2007).

  114. 114.

    Ratcliff, R., Smith, P. L., Brown, S. D. & McKoon, G. Trends Cogn. Sci. 20, 260–281 (2016).

  115. 115.

    Hogg, M. A. Eur. Rev. Soc. Psychol. 11, 223–255 (2000).

  116. 116.

    Whalen, P. J. Curr. Dir. Psychol. Sci. 7, 177–188 (1998).

  117. 117.

    Fischbacher, U., Gächter, S. & Fehr, E. Econ. Lett. 71, 397–404 (2001).

  118. 118.

    Mullin, B. A. & Hogg, M. A. Basic Appl. Soc. Psych. 21, 91–102 (1999).

  119. 119.

    Hogg, M. A. Eur. Rev. Soc. Psychol. 4, 85–111 (1993).

  120. 120.

    Epley, N. & Gilovich, T. Psychol. Sci. 12, 391–396 (2001).

  121. 121.

    Tversky, A. & Kahneman, D. Science 185, 1124–1131 (1974).

  122. 122.

    van den Berg, P. & Wenseleers, T. Nat. Commun. 9, 2151 (2018).

  123. 123.

    Tamir, D. I. & Mitchell, J. P. J. Exp. Psychol. Gen. 142, 151–162 (2013).

  124. 124.

    Lieder, F., Shenhav, A., Musslick, S. & Griffiths, T. L. PLOS Comput. Biol. 14, e1006043 (2018).

  125. 125.

    Shenhav, A. et al. Annu. Rev. Neurosci. 40, 99–124 (2017).

  126. 126.

    Epley, N. & Gilovich, T. Psychol. Sci. 17, 311–318 (2006).

  127. 127.

    Mendes, W. B., Blascovich, J., Hunter, S. B., Lickel, B. & Jost, J. T. J. Pers. Soc. Psychol. 92, 698–716 (2007).

  128. 128.

    Suzuki, S., Jensen, E. L. S., Bossaerts, P. & O’Doherty, J. P. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 114, E5278–E5278 (2017).

  129. 129.

    Kruglanski, A. W., Pierro, A., Mannetti, L. & De Grada, E. Psychol. Rev. 113, 84–100 (2006).

  130. 130.

    Hogg, M. A., Sherman, D. K., Dierselhuis, J., Maitner, A. T. & Moffitt, G. J. Exp. Soc. Psychol. 43, 135–142 (2007).

  131. 131.

    Vives, M. L. & FeldmanHall, O. Nat. Commun. 9, 2156 (2018).

  132. 132.

    Hogg, M. A., Adelman, J. R. & Blagg, R. D. Pers. Soc. Psychol. Rev. 14, 72–83 (2010).

  133. 133.

    de Coppet, D. Understanding Rituals. (Routledge, 2002).

  134. 134.

    Hobson, N. M., Schroeder, J., Risen, J. L., Xygalatas, D. & Inzlicht, M. Pers. Soc. Psychol. Rev. 22, 260–284 (2018).

  135. 135.

    Brooks, A. W. et al. Organ. Behav. Hum. Decis. Process 137, 71–85 (2016).

  136. 136.

    Norton, M. I. & Gino, F. J. Exp. Psychol. Gen. 143, 266–272 (2014).

  137. 137.

    Finn, E. S., Corlett, P. R., Chen, G., Bandettini, P. A. & Constable, R. T. Nat. Commun. 9, 2043 (2018).

  138. 138.

    Delton, A. W., Krasnow, M. M., Cosmides, L. & Tooby, J. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 108, 13335–13340 (2011).

  139. 139.

    McNamara, J. M., Barta, Z. & Houston, A. I. Nature 428, 745–748 (2004).

  140. 140.

    Vaghi, M. M. et al. Neuron 96, 348–354.e4 (2017).

  141. 141.

    Carleton, R. N. J. Anxiety Disord. 41, 5–21 (2016).

  142. 142.

    Carleton, R. N. Expert Rev. Neurother. 12, 937–947 (2012).

  143. 143.

    Engelmann, J. B., Meyer, F., Fehr, E. & Ruff, C. C. J. Neurosci. 35, 3085–3099 (2015).

  144. 144.

    Carleton, R. N., Collimore, K. C. & Asmundson, G. J. G. J. Anxiety Disord. 24, 189–195 (2010).

  145. 145.

    Yoon, K. L. & Zinbarg, R. E. J. Abnorm. Psychol. 117, 680–685 (2008).

  146. 146.

    Blanchette, I. & Richards, A. J. Exp. Psychol. Gen. 132, 294–309 (2003).

  147. 147.

    Mogg, K., Bradbury, K. E. & Bradley, B. P. Behav. Res. Ther. 44, 1411–1419 (2006).

  148. 148.

    Gentes, E. L. & Ruscio, A. M. Clin. Psychol. Rev. 31, 923–933 (2011).

  149. 149.

    Norton, R. W. J. Pers. Assess. 39, 607–619 (1975).

  150. 150.

    Roemer, L. & Orsillo, S. M. Clin. Psychol. Sci. Pract. 9, 54–68 (2002).

  151. 151.

    Boucher, J. Br. J. Disord. Commun. 24, 181–198 (1989).

  152. 152.

    Wigham, S., Rodgers, J., South, M., McConachie, H. & Freeston, M. J. Autism Dev. Disord. 45, 943–952 (2015).

  153. 153.

    Sevgi, M., Diaconescu, A. O., Tittgemeyer, M. & Schilbach, L. Biol. Psychiatry 80, 112–119 (2016).

  154. 154.

    Eil, D. & Rao, J. M. Am. Econ. J. Microecon. 3, 114–138 (2011).

  155. 155.

    Persoskie, A., Ferrer, R. A. & Klein, W. M. P. J. Behav. Med. 37, 977–987 (2014).

  156. 156.

    Ganguly, A. & Tasoff, J. Manage. Sci. 63, 4037–4060 (2017).

  157. 157.

    Charpentier, C. J., Bromberg-Martin, E. S. & Sharot, T. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 115, E7255–E7264 (2018).

  158. 158.

    Daw, N. D., O’Doherty, J. P., Dayan, P., Seymour, B. & Dolan, R. J. Nature 441, 876–879 (2006).

  159. 159.

    Wilson, R. C., Geana, A., White, J. M., Ludvig, E. A. & Cohen, J. D. J. Exp. Psychol. Gen. 143, 2074–2081 (2014).

  160. 160.

    Yamagishi, T., Cook, K. S. & Watabe, M. Am. J. Sociol. 104, 165–194 (1998).

  161. 161.

    Wittmann, B. C., Daw, N. D., Seymour, B. & Dolan, R. J. Neuron 58, 967–973 (2008).

  162. 162.

    Kakade, S. & Dayan, P. Neural Netw. 15, 549–559 (2002).

  163. 163.

    Cohen, J. D., McClure, S. M. & Yu, A. J. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B 362, 933–942 (2007).

  164. 164.

    Schmidhuber, J. in Proceedings of the International Conference on Simulation of Adaptive Behavior: From Animals to Animats (eds. Meyer, J. A. & Wilson, S. W.) 222–227 (MIT Press/Bradford Books, 1991).

  165. 165.

    Eastwood, J. D., Frischen, A., Fenske, M. J. & Smilek, D. Perspect. Psychol. Sci. 7, 482–495 (2012).

  166. 166.

    Schwartenbeck, P., Fitzgerald, T., Dolan, R. J. & Friston, K. Front. Psychol. 4, 710 (2013).

  167. 167.

    Jepma, M., Verdonschot, R. G., van Steenbergen, H., Rombouts, S. A. & Nieuwenhuis, S. Front. Behav. Neurosci. 6, 5 (2012).

  168. 168.

    Loewenstein, G. F. Psychol. Bull. 116, 75–98 (1994).

  169. 169.

    Berlyne, D. E. J. Exp. Psychol. 53, 399–404 (1957).

  170. 170.

    Kruglanski, A. W. Psychol. Inq. 1, 181–197 (1990).

  171. 171.

    Kruglanski, A. W. & Freund, T. J. Exp. Soc. Psychol. 19, 448–468 (1983).

  172. 172.

    Kruglanski, A. W., Peri, N. & Zakai, D. Soc. Cogn. 9, 127–148 (1991).

  173. 173.

    Dijksterhuis, A., vanKnippenberg, A., Kruglanski, A. W. & Schaper, C. J. Exp. Soc. Psychol. 32, 254–270 (1996).

  174. 174.

    Richter, L. & Kruglanski, A. W. J. Exp. Soc. Psychol. 34, 313–329 (1998).

  175. 175.

    Festinger, L. A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance. (Stanford University Press, 1957).

  176. 176.

    Kruglanski, A. W., Shah, J. Y., Pierro, A. & Mannetti, L. J. Pers. Soc. Psychol. 83, 648–662 (2002).

  177. 177.

    Hogg, M. A. Eur. Psychol. 9, 284–285 (2004).

  178. 178.

    Heine, S. J., Proulx, T. & Vohs, K. D. Pers. Soc. Psychol. Rev. 10, 88–110 (2006).

  179. 179.

    Mitchell, J. P. Trends Cogn. Sci. 13, 246–251 (2009).

  180. 180.

    Tamir, D. I. & Thornton, M. A. Trends Cogn. Sci. 22, 201–212 (2018).

  181. 181.

    Barrett, L. F. Soc. Cogn. Affect. Neurosci. 12, 1833 (2017).

  182. 182.

    Baker, C. L., Saxe, R. & Tenenbaum, J. B. Cognition 113, 329–349 (2009).

  183. 183.

    Berlyne, D. E. Psychol. Rev. 64, 329–339 (1957).

  184. 184.

    Keramati, M., Dezfouli, A. & Piray, P. PLOS Comput. Biol. 7, e1002055 (2011).

  185. 185.

    Miller K., Shenhav, A. & Ludvig, E. Habits without values. Preprint at bioRxiv https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/067603v4 (2017).

  186. 186.

    Graybiel, A. M. Annu. Rev. Neurosci. 31, 359–387 (2008).

  187. 187.

    Gillan, C. M. et al. Am. J. Psychiatry 168, 718–726 (2011).

  188. 188.

    Lawson, R. P., Rees, G. & Friston, K. J. Front. Hum. Neurosci. 8, 302 (2014).

  189. 189.

    Friston, K. Biol. Psychiatry 80, 87–89 (2016).

  190. 190.

    Cimino, A. J. Cogn. Cult. 11, 241–267 (2011).

  191. 191.

    Dickinson, A. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B 308, 67–78 (1985).

  192. 192.

    Griffiths, T. L. & Tenenbaum, J. B. Psychol. Sci. 17, 767–773 (2006).

  193. 193.

    Pezzulo, G. Cogn. Affect. Behav. Neurosci. 14, 902–911 (2014).

  194. 194.

    Kahneman, D. Am. Psychol. 58, 697–720 (2003).

  195. 195.

    Epley, N. & Gilovich, T. Pers. Soc. Psychol. Bull. 30, 447–460 (2004).

  196. 196.

    Epley, N., Keysar, B., Van Boven, L. & Gilovich, T. J. Pers. Soc. Psychol. 87, 327–339 (2004).

  197. 197.

    Epley, N. & Dunning, D. Pers. Soc. Psychol. Bull. 32, 641–655 (2006).

  198. 198.

    Stern, C. & West, T. V. Pers. Soc. Psychol. Bull. 42, 1466–1479 (2016).

  199. 199.

    Kruger, J. & Dunning, D. J. Pers. Soc. Psychol. 77, 1121–1134 (1999).

  200. 200.

    Sporer, S. L., Penrod, S., Read, D. & Cutler, B. Psychol. Bull. 118, 315–327 (1995).

Download references

Acknowledgements

We thank C. Dean Wolf for creation of the figures and thank M. Frank and D. Tamir for helpful comments on early drafts. This research was supported by a Center of Biomedical Research Excellence grant (P20GM103645) from the National Institute of General Medical Sciences to O.F.H. and A.S.

Author information

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Correspondence to Oriel FeldmanHall.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark
Fig. 1: Model for how humans resolve social uncertainty.
Fig. 2: Iterative reduction of social uncertainty through inference and learning.
Fig. 3: The unfolding of automatic and controlled components of social inference.