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Multifaceted aerosol effects on precipitation

Nature Geoscience volume 17, pages 719–732 (2024)Cite this article

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Abstract

Aerosols have been proposed to influence precipitation rates and spatial patterns from scales of individual clouds to the globe. However, large uncertainty remains regarding the underlying mechanisms and importance of multiple effects across spatial and temporal scales. Here we review the evidence and scientific consensus behind these effects, categorized into radiative effects via modification of radiative fluxes and the energy balance, and microphysical effects via modification of cloud droplets and ice crystals. Broad consensus and strong theoretical evidence exist that aerosol radiative effects (aerosol–radiation interactions and aerosol–cloud interactions) act as drivers of precipitation changes because global mean precipitation is constrained by energetics and surface evaporation. Likewise, aerosol radiative effects cause well-documented shifts of large-scale precipitation patterns, such as the intertropical convergence zone. The extent of aerosol effects on precipitation at smaller scales is less clear. Although there is broad consensus and strong evidence that aerosol perturbations microphysically increase cloud droplet numbers and decrease droplet sizes, thereby slowing precipitation droplet formation, the overall aerosol effect on precipitation across scales remains highly uncertain. Global cloud-resolving models provide opportunities to investigate mechanisms that are currently not well represented in global climate models and to robustly connect local effects with larger scales. This will increase our confidence in predicted impacts of climate change.

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Fig. 1: Precipitation change due to anthropogenic aerosol in current climate models.
Fig. 2: Physical mechanisms of aerosols effects on precipitation.
Fig. 3: Precipitation changes to idealized absorbing aerosol perturbations.
Fig. 4: Simulated aerosol effects on deep convection.

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Acknowledgements

This review builds on an expert workshop of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Exchanges (GEWEX) Aerosol Precipitation (GAP) initiative hosted by the University of Oxford with support of the European Research Council (ERC) project Constraining the Effects of Aerosols on Precipitation (RECAP) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme with grant agreement no. 724602. P.S. acknowledges support by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation. S.C.v.d.H. acknowledges support from NASA grant 80NSSC18K0149. A.M.L.E., U.L., J.Q. and P.S. acknowledge funding by the FORCeS project under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research programme with grant agreement 821205. J.Q. acknowledges funding by the BMBF project PATTERA (FKZ 01LP1902C). G.M. acknowledges support from the Research Council of Norway project SUPER (no. 250573). E.G. was supported by a Royal Society University Research Fellowship (URF/R1/191602). S.M.S. was supported by the US Department of Energy Atmospheric System Research grant no. DE-SC0021160. K.E. was supported by the National Science Foundation under grant AGS-1906768. M.W.C. acknowledges support from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory operated for the US Department of Energy by Battelle Memorial Institute under contract no. DE-AC05-76RL01830. We thank D. Watson-Parris for providing CMIP6 precipitation data and helpful feedback. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modelling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6 and thank the modelling groups for making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving and providing access, and multiple funding agencies supporting CMIP6 and ESGF.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

    Philip Stier, Matthew W. Christensen & Guy Dagan

  2. Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA

    Susan C. van den Heever, Stephen M. Saleeby & Christian Kummerow

  3. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA

    Matthew W. Christensen

  4. Space and Atmospheric Physics Group, Imperial College London, London, UK

    Edward Gryspeerdt

  5. Institute of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel

    Guy Dagan & Daniel Rosenfeld

  6. School of GeoSciences, Grant Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK

    Massimo Bollasina

  7. NOAA/GFDL, Princeton University Forrestal Campus, Princeton, NJ, USA

    Leo Donner & Yi Ming

  8. Lorenz Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA

    Kerry Emanuel

  9. Department of Meteorology and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden

    Annica M. L. Ekman

  10. Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA

    Graham Feingold

  11. School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK

    Paul Field

  12. Met Office, Exeter, UK

    Paul Field & Jim Haywood

  13. Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK

    Piers Forster

  14. Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK

    Jim Haywood

  15. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA

    Ralph Kahn

  16. Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot, Israel

    Ilan Koren

  17. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, USA

    Tristan L’Ecuyer

  18. Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland

    Ulrike Lohmann

  19. Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA, USA

    Yi Ming

  20. Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway

    Gunnar Myhre & Bjorn Samset

  21. Institute for Meteorology, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany

    Johannes Quaas

  22. Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany

    Axel Seifert

  23. Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA

    Graeme Stephens

  24. Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes Laboratory, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA

    Wei-Kuo Tao

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Contributions

P.S. and S.C.v.d.H. developed the structure of the GEWEX Aerosol Preciptiation Initiative workshop programme providing the basis for this review paper. M.W.C. and E.G. served as raporteurs providing detailed meeting notes. P.S. and S.C.v.d.H. drafted the first version of the manuscript that was extended with contributions from M.W.C., E.G., G.D., M.B., L.D., K.E., A.M.L.E., G.F., P. Field, P. Forster, J.H., R.K., I.K., C.K., T.L., U.L., Y.M., G.M., J.Q., D.R., B.S., A.S., G.S. and W.-K.T. to the literature review, the synthesis of the results and the revised manuscript. G.D. created Figs. 1 and 3. P.S. created Fig. 2. S.M.S created Fig. 4.

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Philip Stier or Susan C. van den Heever.

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Nature Geoscience thanks Pier Luigi Vidale and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work. Primary Handling Editor: James Super, in collaboration with the Nature Geoscience team.

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Stier, P., van den Heever, S.C., Christensen, M.W. et al. Multifaceted aerosol effects on precipitation. Nat. Geosci. 17, 719–732 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01482-6

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