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Globally coherent water cycle response to temperature change during the past two millennia

Nature Geoscience volume 16, pages 997–1004 (2023)Cite this article

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Abstract

The response of the global water cycle to changes in global surface temperature remains an outstanding question in future climate projections and in past climate reconstructions. The stable hydrogen and oxygen isotope compositions of precipitation (δprecip), meteoric water (δMW) and seawater (δSW) integrate processes from microphysical to global scales and thus are uniquely positioned to track global hydroclimate variations. Here we evaluate global hydroclimate during the past 2,000 years using a globally distributed compilation of proxies for δprecip, δMW and δSW. We show that global mean surface temperature exerted a coherent influence on global δprecip and δMW throughout the past two millennia, driven by global ocean evaporation and condensation processes, with lower values during the Little Ice Age (1450–1850) and higher values after the onset of anthropogenic warming (~1850). The Pacific Walker Circulation is a predominant source of regional variability, particularly since 1850. Our results demonstrate rapid adjustments in global precipitation and atmospheric circulation patterns—within decades—as the planet warms and cools.

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Fig. 1: Global composite oxygen isotope anomalies.
Fig. 2: First principal components and trends in Iso2k records over the LM.
Fig. 3: Global hydroclimate and isotopic anomalies in iCESM18,19,20.
Fig. 4: Isotopic fingerprint of the PWC in Iso2k and iCESM.

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Data availability

The Iso2k Database57 is available for download at https://doi.org/10.25921/57j8-vs18 and is accessible via the NOAA/WDS Paleo Data landing page at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/29593. Composites and principal component datasets generated for this paper are available through GitHub at https://github.com/nickmckay/iso2kNatureGeoscience2023 and archived via Zenodo (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8327339).

Code availability

Codes to reproduce the main results from this paper are available through GitHub at https://github.com/nickmckay/iso2kNatureGeoscience2023 and archived via Zenodo (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8327339).

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Acknowledgements

Iso2k is a contribution to Phase 3 and 4 of the PAGES 2k Network. PAGES received support from the Swiss Academy of Sciences, the US National Science Foundation and the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Support for this work includes NSF-AGS 1805141, NSF-AGS PRF 1433408 and a David and Lucile Packard Foundation Fellowship in Science and Engineering to B.L.K.; NSF-1948746 to N.P.M.; Australian Research Council through a Discovery Project (DP170100557) and the Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CE170100023) to G.M.F.; NSF-AGS 1805143 and NSF-OCE-2202794 to S.L.S.; NSF-CAREER 2145725, NSF 2103035 and NSF 2002444 to A.R.A.; NSF-CAREER 1945479, NSF 1931242 and NSF 2002460 to D.M.T.; Australian Research Council Discovery Project DP190102782 to J.J.T.; South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center Cooperative Agreement G19AC00086, NSF-2102931 and NSF-1805702 to K.L.D.; RYC‐2013‐14073 programme and LINKA20102 and CEX2018‐000794‐S projects to B.M.; NSF-EAR PRF 1349595, NSF-EAR-IF 1652274, NSF-OPP 1504267, NSF-OPP 1737716 and NSF-CAREER 2044616 to E.K.T.; NSF-CAREER 1847791 to J.L.C.; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration award number NA18OAR4310427 to S.G.D.; PalMod, the German palaeoclimate modelling initiative, part of the Research for Sustainable Development initiative funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; 01LP1922A) to L.J.; RSF project 21-17-00006 to O.V.C.(S.); German Research Foundation grants OP217/2-1, OP217/3-1, OP217/4-1 to T.O.; Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada Discovery Grant RGPIN-2016-06730 to T.J.P.; Australian Research Council Project (LP210300691) to G.S.; Australian Research Council through a Future Fellowship (FT160100029), Special Research Initiative for the Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science (SR200100008) and the Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CE170100023) to N.J.A; Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada Discovery Grant RGPIN-2021-03888 to A.J.O.; and Australian Antarctic Science (AAS) grants 757, 4061, 4062 and 4537 to M.C. and A.M.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Earth, Environmental, and Planetary Sciences, Washington University, Saint Louis, MO, USA

    Bronwen L. Konecky & Georgina M. Falster

  2. School of Earth and Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, USA

    Nicholas P. McKay, Darrell S. Kaufman & Hannah R. Kolus

  3. Research School of Earth Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia

    Georgina M. Falster & Nerilie J. Abram

  4. Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, USA

    Samantha L. Stevenson

  5. NST Environment, ANSTO, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

    Matt J. Fischer

  6. Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, USA

    Alyssa R. Atwood

  7. Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA

    Diane M. Thompson

  8. School of Geography, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK

    Matthew D. Jones

  9. School of Physics, Chemistry and Earth Sciences, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia

    Jonathan J. Tyler

  10. Department of Geography and Anthropology, Coastal Studies Institute, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, USA

    Kristine L. DeLong

  11. Department of Environmental Chemistry, Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA-CSIC), Barcelona, Spain

    Belen Martrat

  12. Department of Geology, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, USA

    Elizabeth K. Thomas

  13. Department of Geology, Department of Plant Biology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, USA

    Jessica L. Conroy

  14. Department of Earth, Environmental, and Planetary Sciences, Rice University, Houston, TX, USA

    Sylvia G. Dee

  15. MARUM Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, Bremen University, Bremen, Germany

    Lukas Jonkers

  16. Institute of Ecology and Geography, Siberian Federal University, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation

    Olga V. Churakova (Sidorova)

  17. Department of Forest Dynamics, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland

    Olga V. Churakova (Sidorova)

  18. Institute for Geological and Geochemical Research, Research Centre for Astronomy and Earth Sciences, Eötvös Loránd Research Network, Budapest, Hungary

    Zoltán Kern

  19. CSFK, MTA Centre of Excellence, Budapest, Hungary

    Zoltán Kern

  20. Polar Terrestrial Environmental Systems, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany

    Thomas Opel

  21. Department of Geography, Geomatics and Environment, University of Toronto–Mississauga, Mississauga, Ontario, Canada

    Trevor J. Porter

  22. School of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA

    Hussein R. Sayani

  23. West Australian Biogeochemistry Centre, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia, Australia

    Grzegorz Skrzypek

  24. Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia

    Nerilie J. Abram

  25. Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA

    Kerstin Braun

  26. LOCEAN, Sorbonne Universités (UPMC)-CNRS-IRD-MNHN, Paris, France

    Matthieu Carré

  27. CEREGE, Aix Marseille Université, CNRS, IRD, INRAE, Aix-en-Provence, France

    Olivier Cartapanis

  28. University of Reading, Reading, UK

    Laia Comas-Bru

  29. Australian Antarctic Division, Kingston, Tasmania, Australia

    Mark A. Curran & Andrew D. Moy

  30. University of Bordeaux, Bordeaux, France

    Emilie P. Dassié

  31. Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz, Mainz, Germany

    Michael Deininger

  32. Norwegian Polar Institute, Tromsø, Norway

    Dmitry V. Divine

  33. Palermo University, Palermo, Italy

    Alessandro Incarbona

  34. University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

    Nikita Kaushal

  35. The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia

    Robert M. Klaebe

  36. Aix Marseille University, CNRS, IRD, INRAE, Coll France, CEREGE, Aix-en-Provence, France

    Guillaume Leduc

  37. Indian Institute of Science Education and Research, Pune, India

    Shreyas R. Managave

  38. Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona (UAB), Barcelona, Spain

    P. Graham Mortyn

  39. Laboratoire de Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, LSCE-IPSL, CEA, CNRS, UVSQ, UMR8212, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France

    Anais J. Orsi

  40. Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

    Anais J. Orsi

  41. University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA

    Judson W. Partin

  42. University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA

    Heidi A. Roop

  43. CNRS and Sorbonne Université, Paris, France

    Marie-Alexandrine Sicre

  44. PAGES International Project Office, Bern, Switzerland

    Lucien von Gunten

  45. The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

    Kei Yoshimura

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  1. Bronwen L. Konecky
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  2. Nicholas P. McKay
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  3. Georgina M. Falster
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  4. Samantha L. Stevenson
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  5. Matt J. Fischer
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  6. Alyssa R. Atwood
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  7. Diane M. Thompson
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  8. Matthew D. Jones
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  9. Jonathan J. Tyler
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  10. Kristine L. DeLong
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  11. Belen Martrat
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  12. Elizabeth K. Thomas
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  13. Jessica L. Conroy
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  14. Sylvia G. Dee
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  15. Lukas Jonkers
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  16. Olga V. Churakova (Sidorova)
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  17. Zoltán Kern
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  18. Thomas Opel
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  19. Trevor J. Porter
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  20. Hussein R. Sayani
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  21. Grzegorz Skrzypek
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Consortia

Iso2k Project Members

  • Bronwen L. Konecky
  • , Nicholas P. McKay
  • , Georgina M. Falster
  • , Samantha L. Stevenson
  • , Matt J. Fischer
  • , Alyssa R. Atwood
  • , Diane M. Thompson
  • , Matthew D. Jones
  • , Jonathan J. Tyler
  • , Kristine L. DeLong
  • , Belen Martrat
  • , Elizabeth K. Thomas
  • , Jessica L. Conroy
  • , Sylvia G. Dee
  • , Lukas Jonkers
  • , Olga V. Churakova (Sidorova)
  • , Zoltán Kern
  • , Thomas Opel
  • , Trevor J. Porter
  • , Hussein R. Sayani
  • , Grzegorz Skrzypek
  • , Nerilie J. Abram
  • , Kerstin Braun
  • , Matthieu Carré
  • , Olivier Cartapanis
  • , Laia Comas-Bru
  • , Mark A. Curran
  • , Emilie P. Dassié
  • , Michael Deininger
  • , Dmitry V. Divine
  • , Alessandro Incarbona
  • , Darrell S. Kaufman
  • , Nikita Kaushal
  • , Robert M. Klaebe
  • , Hannah R. Kolus
  • , Guillaume Leduc
  • , Shreyas R. Managave
  • , P. Graham Mortyn
  • , Andrew D. Moy
  • , Anais J. Orsi
  • , Judson W. Partin
  • , Heidi A. Roop
  • , Marie-Alexandrine Sicre
  • , Lucien von Gunten
  •  & Kei Yoshimura

Contributions

Analyses presented in the main text and extended data were conceived and performed by B.L.K., N.P.M., G.M.F., S.L.S., M.J.F., A.R.A., D.M.T., M.D.J., J.J.T., E.K.T., J.L.C., S.G.D. and L.J. Results were analysed and interpreted by B.L.K., N.P.M., G.M.F., S.L.S., M.J.F., A.R.A., D.M.T., M.D.J., K.L.D., J.J.T., B.M. and E.K.T., with input from all authors. The manuscript was written mainly by B.L.K., N.P.M., G.M.F., S.L.S., M.J.F., A.R.A., D.M.T., M.D.J., K.L.D., J.J.T., B.M., E.K.T., J.L.C., S.G.D., L.J. and H.R.S., with additional contributions from O.V.C.(S.), Z.K., T.O., T.J.P. and G.S. All Iso2k project members created the Iso2k database and edited the manuscript. B.L.K. directed the project, led the overall design of the study and led the writing of the manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Bronwen L. Konecky.

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Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

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Extended data

Extended Data Fig. 1 Composite Δ18Oδprecip calculated with and without glacier ice records.

As per Fig. 1, the black line with coloured shading shows the 30-year binned proxy δ18O anomaly from Iso2k records15 (black line, ensemble median; dark shading, first and third quantiles; light shading, 2.5th/97.5th percentiles). (a) Composite of Δ18Oδprecip records from all archives other than glacier ice. (b) Composite of only glacier ice records. Records contributing to each bin are mean-centered but not scaled according to that record’s variance (see Methods). Anomalies are in ‰ relative to the 2000-year mean. Gray shading depicts the ensemble 2.5 and 97.5 percentile of the 31-year Butterworth-filtered Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) anomaly relative to the 1961-1990 mean1.

Extended Data Fig. 2 Composite Δ18Oδprecip calculated using Iso2k records15 falling within 30-degree latitudinal bins.

a, 60-90°N (n = 76); b, 30-60°N (n = 86); c, 0-30°N (n = 27); d, 0-30°S (n = 39); e, 60-90°S (n = 77). As per Fig. 1, black line with coloured shading shows the 30-year binned proxy δ18O anomaly (black line, ensemble median; dark shading, first and third quantiles; light shading, 2.5th/97.5th percentiles) and gray shading depicts the ensemble 2.5 and 97.5 percentile of the 31-year Butterworth-filtered GMST anomaly relative to the 1961-1990 mean1. Black text denotes mean regression slope (± 1 standard deviation) of regional composite Δ18O vs. GMST from 850-2000. Regional composite for 30-60°S not calculated due to insufficient number of records from those latitudes (n = 2).

Extended Data Fig. 3 First Principal Component (PC1) of Iso2k15 records during the full Common Era.

Panels a–d, as in Fig. 2a–d but for the interval 0-1980 (30-year bins), and without trends depicted (that is, constant shape for outer symbols). δprecip PC1 explains 19% of the total variance (n = 44). Effective Moisture PC1 explains 19% of the total variance (n = 19). Temperature PC1 explains 25% of the total variance (n = 19). Maps created in R using coastlines from Natural Earth.

Extended Data Fig. 4 iCESM relationship between GMST and grid cell-level δ18Oprecip.

Shading depicts the regression coefficient in ‰/°C between mean annual, amount-weighted, 30-year running mean δ18Oprecip at every grid cell vs. 30-year running mean, area-weighted GMST for the mean of 3 full-forcing, isotope-enabled Last Millennium Ensemble members18–20. Map created in MATLAB using m_map for coastlines.

Extended Data Fig. 5 δ18O vs. latitude in the Iso2k database15 for the modern era (a-d; 1950-2018) and the Little Ice Age (e-h; 1450-1850).

Data are plotted for the three main isotope interpretation categories (a-c, e-g) and for δ18O of glacier and ground ice (d, h), the archives that preserve precipitation most directly. Black lines indicate polynomial fits to the 0.1, 0.5, and 0.9 quantiles. Black squares on panels (d) and (h) indicate 40 and 70 degrees latitude, the interval for which the mean of the gradient function was calculated (−0.48‰/° latitude for both time periods; see main text). All records are plotted in permil on the VSMOW-SLAP scale for ice core records; PDB or VPDB for all other archives).

Extended Data Fig. 6 Relation between Iso2k15 primary time series and Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST).

(a) Fraction of variance explained (R2) in δprecip primary time series by changes in PAGES 2k global mean surface temperature (GMST) over the past 2000 years1,2. Both Iso2k time series and GMST were averaged into 30 year bins before calculating correlations (See Methods). (b) As in (a), but for Effective Moisture primary time series. (c) As in (a), but for Temperature primary time series.

Extended Data Fig. 7 Standardized 200-year δ18O anomalies from Effective Moisture and δprecip records.

a, Composite medians for Iso2k15 Effective Moisture and δprecip driven records, as shown in Fig. 1 of the main text. Red shading denotes intervals of relatively high composite Δ18OEM, and blue shading denotes intervals of relatively low composite Δ18OEM. b-f, Isotopic anomalies in individual EM and δprecip records contributing to the composites during those shaded intervals, via standardised anomaly maps for time intervals discussed in the main text (see Methods). These maps only include records with data spanning ≥ 600 years. Standardized anomalies at each site are relative to the Common Era mean value for that record. Maps created in R using coastlines from Natural Earth.

Extended Data Fig. 8 First Principal Component (PC1) of Iso2k15 data for the Historical Period.

Panels a–d, as in Extended Data Fig. 3a–d, but for the interval 1850-2005, with 3-year bins. δprecip PC1 explains 12% of the total variance (n = 109). Effective Moisture PC1 explains 32% of the total variance (n = 29). Temperature PC1 explains 38% of the total variance (n = 27). Maps created in R using coastlines from Natural Earth.

Extended Data Fig. 9 Significance of Iso2k15 PCA eigenvalues with respect to a null hypothesis of stochastic forcing with decadal persistence.

a, Block bootstrap results from 850-1840 with a 30-year bin width, 10-year block length, and tolerance of up to 15% missing data (that is, 85% coverage during the time interval; Methods). Yellow symbols depict the eigenvalues (expressed as a percentage of the total variance) of each principal component. Blue bars show the 1-99% confidence intervals of the stochastic null hypothesis (n = 1000). Eigenvalues above the 99% confidence interval are significant at the 1% level (one-sided test) and therefore are unlikely to have arisen stochastically, and unlikely to be an artifact of the data processing steps (that is, binning and interpolation). (b) as in (a) but for 0-1980. (c) as in (a) but for 1850-2000 and with a 10-year bin width and tolerance of up to 10% missing data (90% coverage).

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Konecky, B.L., McKay, N.P., Falster, G.M. et al. Globally coherent water cycle response to temperature change during the past two millennia. Nat. Geosci. 16, 997–1004 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01291-3

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