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Communicating the link between climate change and extreme rain events

Nature Geoscience volume 16, pages 552–554 (2023)Cite this article

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Extreme rainfall events are often linked to climate change based on simple thermodynamic arguments, but complex dynamic processes also play a role. Scientists have a responsibility to ensure they provide accurate information to the media and public.

Climate change is affecting extreme weather across the planet. Widespread warming and changing rainfall patterns are altering the likelihood and intensity of events locally1. When extreme events occur, scientists can offer useful commentary in real-time about the role of climate change even before a study has been performed, such as an attribution analysis. Often, there is a diversity of views on the role of climate change when it comes to multi-day extreme rain events, and this may lead to public confusion about whether we should expect more or fewer of these events in a particular region. Much of the difference in commentary relates to the differing emphases placed on changes in dynamic and thermodynamic processes. Here, we examine what can be communicated about the potential link between climate change and extreme rain in the aftermath of such events using the extreme rain preceding floods in Australia in early 2022 as an example.

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Fig. 1: Considerations for statements to the media and public regarding the influence of climate change on an extreme rainfall event.

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Acknowledgements

A.D.K. and K.J.R. acknowledge support from the Australian Research Council (DE180100638). All authors acknowledge support from the Australian Research Council (CE170100023). A.D.K. acknowledges the Australian Government National Environmental Science Program.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

    Andrew D. King & Kimberley J. Reid

  2. ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Victoria, Australia

    Andrew D. King, Kimberley J. Reid & Kate R. Saunders

  3. School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia

    Kimberley J. Reid

  4. School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia

    Kate R. Saunders

  5. Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, Monash University, Victoria, Australia

    Kate R. Saunders

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  1. Andrew D. King
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Correspondence to Andrew D. King.

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Nature Geoscience thanks Joshua Ettinger and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

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King, A.D., Reid, K.J. & Saunders, K.R. Communicating the link between climate change and extreme rain events. Nat. Geosci. 16, 552–554 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01223-1

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