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Climate dynamics

Simplifying climate complexity

Nature Geoscience volume 16, pages 280–281 (2023)Cite this article

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The El Niño Southern Oscillation strongly impacts climate, but its variability remains difficult to predict. A conceptual model based on shifting circulation patterns offers a simple explanation for this complex behaviour.

The variations in the surface ocean temperature associated with ENSO are closely related to the average conditions of the tropical Pacific. Typically, ascending motion in the atmosphere occurs over the warm waters of the western equatorial Pacific, (the ‘Warm Pool’) with subsidence taking place over the colder and dryer eastern equatorial Pacific (the ‘Cold Tongue’). This creates an atmospheric circulation, known as the ‘Walker circulation’, that is closed by the surface trade winds. The trade winds move warm equatorial surface waters westward and bring deeper colder water close to the surface in the eastern Pacific. ENSO creates a disruption of these average conditions. For example, warmer-than-average temperatures in the eastern Pacific reduce the temperature contrast between the Warm Pool and Cold Tongue, driving an eastward shift of the Walker circulation and a further increase of the original warm temperature anomaly. In contrast, the discharge of warm waters from the upper layer of the ocean facilitates the formation of cold anomalies in the equatorial Pacific and the ENSO phase change. These discharge–recharge processes are a fundamental part of the ENSO cycle, as encapsulated by a conceptual model for ENSO called the Recharge Oscillator6, which has guided our understanding of ENSO dynamics for many years.

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Fig. 1: Different types of ENSO events can be captured by zonal shifts of the Walker circulation and changes in upper-ocean conditions.

The figure is adapted from ref. 5

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  1. University of Colorado, CIRES, and NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA

    Antonietta Capotondi

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  1. Antonietta Capotondi
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Correspondence to Antonietta Capotondi.

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Capotondi, A. Simplifying climate complexity. Nat. Geosci. 16, 280–281 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01161-y

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