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Early Pleistocene East Antarctic temperature in phase with local insolation

Abstract

Pleistocene glacial–interglacial cycles are hypothesized to be modulated by Earth’s orbital parameters through their influence on the Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. Changes in obliquity—Earth’s axial tilt—can explain the 41,000-year glacial cycles in the Early Pleistocene. However, the absence of 19,000- and 23,000-year frequencies corresponding to Earth’s precession of the rotation axis from those cycles remains enigmatic. Here we investigate how these orbital forcings may have changed by developing an insolation proxy based on the oxygen-to-nitrogen ratio of gases trapped in ice core samples collected from the Allan Hills Blue Ice Area in East Antarctica. We find that East Antarctic temperature was positively correlated with local, Southern Hemisphere summer insolation in the Early Pleistocene, while this correlation became negative in the late Pleistocene, with only the latter being consistent with the previous findings that Northern Hemisphere insolation paced Antarctic climate. If Early Pleistocene ice volume and local Antarctic temperature co-varied, our result supports the hypothesis that attributes the absence of precession in the 41,000-year glacial cycles to cancellation of precession frequencies in hemispheric ice volume changes that are responding to local insolation, suggesting a more dynamic East Antarctic Ice Sheet in the Early Pleistocene than in the past 800,000 years.

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Fig. 1: δO2/N2 as a proxy for local 21 December insolation intensity observed in four Antarctic ice cores.
Fig. 2: Relationship of the isotopic composition of ice (δDice) and δO2/N2 of the trapped air in the Allan Hills blue ice.
Fig. 3: Testing the statistical robustness of and the alternative explanation of Northern Hemisphere pacing for the observed negative δDice–δO2/N2 relationship in the 1.5 Ma and 2.0 Ma Allan Hills samples.
Fig. 4: Testing the hypothesis of obliquity pacing of Antarctic temperature in the 40 kyr glacial cycles.

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Data availability

All data supporting the conclusion of this paper are publicly available without restriction. Dome Fuji, Dome C and Vostok data are from data depositories associated with their respective publications. Allan Hills gas ratio and stable water isotope data are available at the US Antarctic Program Data Center: https://doi.org/10.15784/601483 (ALHIC1502 and ALHIC1503 O2/N2/Ar elemental and isotopic ratios), https://doi.org/10.15784/601129 (ALHIC1502 stable water isotopes), https://doi.org/10.15784/601128 (ALHIC1503 stable water isotopes), https://doi.org/10.15784/601512 (S27 δO2/N2 and δAr/N2 ratios) and https://doi.org/10.7265/N5NP22DF (S27 stable water isotope records). We compiled those δO2/N2 and δAr/N2 data here as Supplementary Data 1 and 2, respectively. Source data for Figs. 3 and 4, and Extended Data Figure 5 are provided with this paper.

Code availability

MATLAB codes for the Monte Carlo simulation performed in this study are available at GitHub: https://github.com/yuzheny/MonteCarlo_correlation.

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Acknowledgements

Funding for this work was provided by US National Science Foundation with the following grant numbers: ANT-1443263 (J.A.H.) and ANT-1443306 (A.V.K and P.A.M.). We thank the US Ice Drilling Design and Operations (IDDO), M. Waszkiewicz, P. Kemeny, S. Mackay and K. Borek Air for assistance with the field work. We also thank R. Nunn and G. Hargreaves at the National Science Foundation Ice Core Facility for help with ice core sample processing and archiving. We thank M. Bender for the constructive comments and discussions.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Contributions

Conceptualization: Y.Y. Methodology: J.A.H. and Y.Y. for gas ratios and A.V.K. and P.A.M. for stable water isotopes. Investigation: Y.Y. Visualization: Y.Y. Supervision: J.A.H., A.V.K. and P.A.M. Writing, original draft: Y.Y. Writing, review and editing: S.S., A.V.K., P.A.M. and J.A.H.

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Correspondence to Yuzhen Yan.

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Nature Geoscience and the authors thank Ryu Uemura, Frederic Parrenin and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work. Primary Handling Editor(s): James Super, in collaboration with the Nature Geoscience team.

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Extended data

Extended Data Fig. 1 Covariation between δO2/N2 and δAr/N2.

a, Dome Fuji (clathrate N = 219, r2 = 0.52; bubble N = 238, r2 = 0.82); b, Dome C (clathrate N = 40, r2 = 0.68; bubble N = 29, r2 = 0.66); c, S27 (N = 24; r2 = 0.38; and d, discontinuous Allan Hills ice (N = 92; r2 = 0.68). Correlation in all samples regardless of gas preservation status are significant at p = 0.05 level (two-tailed). Part of this covariation is modulated by insolation. Clathrate- and bubble-based gas data are shown in black and red circles, respectively. Dashed lines represent 95% confidence interval of the slope. All of the Allan Hills samples only contain bubbles.

Extended Data Fig. 2 Insolation imprint in δAr/N2 ratios of the air trapped in ice containing (a) bubbles and (b) clathrates only.

The concept here is similar to Fig. 1 in the main text, with Dome Fuji (red)28, Dome C (blue)27, and Allan Hills S27 (gray)30 datasets. Clathrate-based δAr/N2 is negatively correlated with local Dec 21st insolation intensity in both Dome Fuji (sample N = 219, r2 = 0.24, two-tailed p < 0.01) and Dome C ice (N = 40, r2 = 0.21, p < 0.01). There is also a significant (two-tailed p < 0.05) correlation between bubble-based δAr/N2 and insolation in Dome Fuji (N = 238, r2 = 0.24), Dome C (N = 29, r2 = 0.20), and S27 (N = 24, r2 = 0.23) ice. Dashed lines represent 95% confidence interval of the slope. Note that the number of available δAr/N2 data points is smaller than the number of δO2/N2 data, because not all δO2/N2-reporting studies include δAr/N2.

Extended Data Fig. 3 S27 δO2/N2 data measured from ice above 140 m reported by Spaulding et al.42 (black circles) and Yan et al.30 (red circles) superimposed on the insolation at local (77 S) summer solstice.

Error bars represent the pooled standard error of the δO2/N2 measurements reported by Spaulding et al.42 (black; ± 2.99 ‰; unique sample number N = 38) and Yan et al.30 (red; ± 2.69 ‰; unique sample number N = 45). Each unique samples have two replicates with the mean value reported. Note that the y-axis for insolation is reversed. The two shallowest δO2/N2 in Yan et al.30 (marked by arrows) are not included in this study in view of suspected intrusion of modern air.

Extended Data Fig. 4 Correlation between the isotopic composition of ice (δDice) and δO2/N2 of the trapped air in the Allan Hills blue ice dating back to 1.5 Ma.

Error bars represent the pooled standard error of the δO2/N2 measurements (± 2.38 ‰). Dashed lines represent 95% confidence interval of the slope [–0.71 ± 0.37 (1σ)] of the linear regression. The correlation is not statistically significant at 95% significance level (N = 25; r2 = 0.15; two-tailed p = 0.06).

Extended Data Fig. 5 Relationship of δDice and δAr/N2 of the trapped air in the Allan Hills ice and the robustness given analytical uncertainties.

Panels (a-c) are conceptually very similar to Fig. 2 in the main text, but here δAr/N2 provides additional evidence to the observed negative correlation between δDice and δO2/N2 in samples dating back to 1.5 and 2.0 Ma. Error bars represent the pooled standard error of the δAr/N2 measurements (± 1.47 ‰). Dashed lines represent 95% confidence interval. δAr/N2 is only significantly (two-tailed p < 0.05) correlated in the 1.5 and 2.0 Ma samples (sample N = 29, r2 = 0.28), and not significantly correlated in the 810 ka (N = 34, r2 = 0.07) or the 400 ka samples (N = 29, r2 = 0.10). However, the 95th percentile of r value between the 29 δAr/N2 and δDice data pairs dating back to 1.5 and 2.0 Ma is –0.272 in a 106-iteration Monte Carlo simulation (panel d). Given the sample size (N = 29), the critical r value at 0.05 significance level (one-tailed) is –0.311 (dashed vertical line), meaning that there is a greater than 5% chance that the analytical uncertainties in δAr/N2 lead to insignificant correlation. The negative δAr/N2-δDice relationship is thus not considered robust. Histogram bin size is 0.01.

Source data

Extended Data Fig. 6 Relationship between δO2/N2 and δDice measured from the same depth in (a) Dome Fuji16,28,39, (b) Dome C18,25,26,27,51, (c) Vostok14,29, and (d) Allan Hills S27 ice.

Only clathrate-based data from Dome Fuji, Dome C, and Vostok are used in this comparison, shown as black circles. A statistically significant (two-tailed p < 0.01) positive correlation exists in Dome Fuji (N = 366, r2 = 0.04), Dome C (N = 365, r2 = 0.05), and Vostok (N = 151, r2 = 0.16) data. Red circles in S27 indicate that gas ratio data were measured on ice samples containing bubbles because the Allan Hills S27 ice has no clathrate. The correlation is still positive and significant (N = 24, r2 = 0.27, p = 0.01). Dashed lines represent 95% confidence interval. The results show that, for 4 Antarctic ice cores, there is strong evidence for Antarctic temperature in phase with northern hemisphere insolation on orbital timescales.

Extended Data Fig. 7 Distribution of δO2/N2 measured in Allan Hills ice core samples.

Because the range of the data in late- and early-Pleistocene samples is similar, the observed negative correlation between δO2/N2 and δDice in 1.5 and 2.0 Ma ice samples is unlikely to be the result of ice samples covering an obliquity-dominant insolation cycle. Histogram bin size is 1‰.

Extended Data Table 1 Summary of δO2/N2 and δAr/N2 data used in this study

Supplementary information

Supplementary information

Supplementary Text and Figs. 1–3.

Supplementary Data 1 and 2

Supplementary Data 1: Oxygen-to-nitrogen ratios (δO2/N2) measured in gases trapped in ice cores that are used in this study. Supplementary Data 2: Argon-to-nitrogen ratios (δAr/N2) measured in gases trapped in ice cores that are used in this study (also included within the workbook).

Source data

Source Data Fig. 3

Statistical source data: correlation coefficients of 29 stable water isotopes and gas ratios from 106 Monte Carlo iterations.

Source Data Fig. 4

Statistical source data: correlation coefficients of 29 randomly picked 65° N integrated summer insolation versus 77° S 21 December insolation from 106 Monte Carlo iterations.

Source Data Extended Data Fig. 5

Statistical source data: correlation coefficients of 29 stable water isotopes and gas ratios from 106 Monte Carlo simulations with analytical uncertainties included in each iteration.

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Yan, Y., Kurbatov, A.V., Mayewski, P.A. et al. Early Pleistocene East Antarctic temperature in phase with local insolation. Nat. Geosci. 16, 50–55 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-022-01095-x

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