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Calibrating the marine turbidite palaeoseismometer using the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake

Nature Geoscience volume 14, pages 161–167 (2021)Cite this article

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Abstract

Turbidite palaeoseismology has produced arguably the most comprehensive multimillennial scale records of subduction-zone earthquakes but is underpinned by techniques that are vigorously debated in earthquake science. Resolving this argument requires new direct observations that test the approach’s essential assumptions. Here we present measurements from turbidites triggered by the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake in New Zealand, one of the most well-instrumented earthquakes in history. This natural experiment provides an ideal test for turbidite palaeoseismology because fault source, ground motions and turbidite deposition in discrete canyons are well-resolved by analysis of sediment cores combined with physics-based ground-motion modelling. We find that the Kaikōura earthquake triggered flows in ten consecutive canyon–distributary systems along a 200 km segment of the Hikurangi subduction margin where long-period (>2 s) peak ground velocities exceeded turbidity-current-triggering thresholds between 16–25 cm s−1. Comparison between ground motions and turbidite deposition confirm that there is a predictable relationship between earthquake source, ground motions and deposition of coseismic turbidites. We demonstrate that the patterns of triggering and resultant turbidite character may preserve evidence of fault-rupture direction along with the radiating patterns and amplification of earthquake ground motions.

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Fig. 1: Tectonic setting and post-earthquake sample sites along the southern HSM and schematics of the assumptions that underpin turbidite palaeoseismology.
Fig. 2: Kaikōura earthquake turbidites from canyons on the southern HSM.
Fig. 3: The relationship between fault source, ground motions and coseismic turbidites.
Fig. 4: Comparison between grain-size pulses in coseismic turbidites and seismograms of the triggering earthquake.

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Data availability

Core sedimentological (bulk density, grain size and geochemistry), geochronological and modelled ground-motion datasets generated during and/or analysed during the current study are available in the Figshare repository: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.13359101.v1. The regional bathymetry (250 m grid) data that support the findings of this study can be downloaded from the New Zealand Bathymetry database website: https://niwa.co.nz/our-science/oceans/bathymetry. Where available, high-resolution bathymetry (25 m grid) data used in the current study are from NIWA’s data holdings and were used under a data-sharing agreement with NIWA for the current study. Data are however available for research purposes from the authors upon reasonable request and with the permission of NIWA. Source data are provided with this paper.

Code availability

The open-source software SPECFEM3D used in our ground-motion simulations is available from the Computational Infrastructure for Geodynamics at: https://geodynamics.org/cig/software/specfem3d/.

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Acknowledgements

Funding for core analysis was provided by an Earthquake Commission (EQC) biennial research grant (No. 18/756) awarded to J.D.H., A.R.O. and S.D.N. and a Marsden grant (MFP-19-NIW-027) awarded to J.D.H. and A.R.O. Voyages in 2016 and 2017 were funded by Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) Tangaroa Reference Group and the MBIE Endeavour programme ‘Diagnosing peril posed by the Hikurangi subduction zone’ (CONT‐46722‐CRFRP‐GNS). National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) scientists were cofunded by a MBIE Strategic Science Investment Fund in the Physical Resources programme in NIWA’s Coasts and Oceans Centre. Y.K. was funded by a Rutherford Foundation Discovery Fellowship. Simulations of seismic wave propagation were run on the New Zealand eScience Infrastructure high-performance computing facilities. We thank J. Wartman for informative discussions on slope failure mechanisms.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand

    Jamie D. Howarth & Katie Jones

  2. National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), Wellington, New Zealand

    Alan R. Orpin, Scott D. Nodder, Joshu J. Mountjoy, Philip M. Barnes & Helen C. Bostock

  3. GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand

    Yoshihiro Kaneko & Caroline Holden

  4. Graduate School of Science, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan

    Yoshihiro Kaneko

  5. School of Environment, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand

    Lorna J. Strachan

  6. School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia

    Helen C. Bostock

  7. EMCOL Research Centre and Department of Geological Engineering, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey

    M. Namik Cağatay

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Contributions

J.D.H. designed the study with input from A.R.O. and Y.K. P.M.B., J.D.H. and J.J.M. identified core sites. J.D.H., A.R.O., S.D.N. and P.M.B. undertook the field sampling. J.D.H., A.R.O., L.J.S., H.C.B., S.D.N. and M.N.C. generated and interpreted the core sedimentological and geochemical data. Y.K. and C.H. conducted the ground-motion modelling. K.J. conducted the morphometric analysis. J.D.H. and A.R.O. wrote the paper with input from all co-authors.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jamie D. Howarth.

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The authors declare no competing interests.

Additional information

Peer review information Primary handling editor: Stefan Lachowycz. Nature Geoscience thanks Karim Tarbali, Peter Talling and Ken Ikehara for their contribution to the peer review of this work

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Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

Supplementary Tables 1–2, Supplementary Figs. 1–21 and Supplementary Discussion 1–3.

Source data

Source Data Fig. 1

Metadata for core sites used in Fig. 1.

Source Data Fig. 2

Down-core bulk density data used in Fig. 2.

Source Data Fig. 3

Catchment-centroid PGV for inset plot and 3D PGV grid used in Fig. 3.

Source Data Fig. 4

Modelled ground velocity versus time data for the plots in Fig. 4.

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Howarth, J.D., Orpin, A.R., Kaneko, Y. et al. Calibrating the marine turbidite palaeoseismometer using the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake. Nat. Geosci. 14, 161–167 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00692-6

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