a, Temperature anomalies with respect to 1961–1990 ce. The coloured lines represent 30 yr low-pass-filtered ensemble medians for the individual reconstruction methods. The grey shading shows the quantiles of all reconstruction ensemble members from all seven methods (right-hand y axis); the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles are indicated with black dotted lines. The black curve is instrumental data25 for 1850–2017 ce. b, Same as a, but for the 30 to 200 yr bandpass-filtered ensemble; instrumental data are not shown.