Abstract

Endorheic (hydrologically landlocked) basins spatially concur with arid/semi-arid climates. Given limited precipitation but high potential evaporation, their water storage is vulnerable to subtle flux perturbations, which are exacerbated by global warming and human activities. Increasing regional evidence suggests a probably recent net decline in endorheic water storage, but this remains unquantified at a global scale. By integrating satellite observations and hydrological modelling, we reveal that during 2002–2016 the global endorheic system experienced a widespread water loss of about 106.3 Gt yr−1, attributed to comparable losses in surface water, soil moisture and groundwater. This decadal decline, disparate from water storage fluctuations in exorheic basins, appears less sensitive to El Niño–Southern Oscillation-driven climate variability, which implies a possible response to longer-term climate conditions and human water management. In the mass-conserved hydrosphere, such an endorheic water loss not only exacerbates local water stress, but also imposes excess water on exorheic basins, leading to a potential sea level rise that matches the contribution of nearly half of the land glacier retreat (excluding Greenland and Antarctica). Given these dual ramifications, we suggest the necessity for long-term monitoring of water storage variation in the global endorheic system and the inclusion of its net contribution to future sea level budgeting.

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Data availability

Calculated water storage changes in global endorheic regions are distributed through PANGAEA (https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.895895). Storage changes in major lakes and reservoirs are available upon reasonable request to the corresponding author. Glacier mass change data are available through Nature Geoscience article https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO2999.

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Acknowledgements

This research was supported by Kansas State University faculty start-up fund to J.W., NASA Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) Grant (no. NNX16AH85G) to Y.S. and China’s Thousand Young Talents Program (no. Y7QR011001) to C.S. This work was funded in part by the NASA Sea Level Change team. A portion of this research was conducted at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under contract with NASA. Assistance for the endorheic basin aggregation and lake mapping was provided by M. Ding, T. Urano and C. Bailey (Kansas State University). We thank E. Berthier (OMP/LEGOS) for support in providing glacier mass change data and comments on the manuscript, and L. Ke, H. Pan and S. Zhan (UCLA) for helping collect meteorological and altimetry data. Constructive suggestions were provided by K. Yang (University of Colorado Boulder) on the SWE validation, Q. Cao (UCLA) on the soil moisture validation, M. Ménégoz (Barcelona Supercomputing Center) on climate variability and J. M. McAlister (Oklahoma State University) on scientific implications and writing.

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Author notes

  1. These authors contributed equally: Jida Wang and Chunqiao Song.

Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS, USA

    • Jida Wang
    • , Fangfang Yao
    •  & Richard A. Marston
  2. Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, China

    • Chunqiao Song
  3. Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA

    • Chunqiao Song
    • , Yongwei Sheng
    •  & Glen M. MacDonald
  4. Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA

    • John T. Reager
    •  & James S. Famiglietti
  5. Global Institute for Water Security, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada

    • James S. Famiglietti
  6. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA

    • Glen M. MacDonald
  7. University of Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, F-38000, Grenoble, France

    • Fanny Brun
  8. LEGOS, Université de Toulouse, CNES, CNRS, IRD, UPS, F-31400, Toulouse, France

    • Fanny Brun
  9. Institute of Physical Geography, Goethe University Frankfurt, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    • Hannes Müller Schmied
  10. Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Center (SBiK-F), Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    • Hannes Müller Schmied
  11. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria

    • Yoshihide Wada

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Contributions

J.W. and C.S. conceived the presented study and performed the analysis. Y.S. initiated the separation of endorheic and exorheic basins. F.B. contributed to data analysis of glacier mass changes. Y.W. and H.M.S. provided model simulations and contributed to water balance analyses. F.Y. participated in model validations and lake storage analysis. J.W., J.T.R. and C.S. developed and conducted the assessment of mascon rescaling uncertainties, with constructive feedback from Y.W. and F.Y. Y.W., G.M.M., J.S.F., H.M.S. and R.A.M. provided critical insights on method design and result interpretation. J.W. wrote the initial draft of the paper, with substantial contributions from all authors.

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jida Wang.

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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0265-7