Ray, A. J. et al. Applications of monsoon research: opportunities to inform decision making and reduce regional vulnerability. J. Clim. 20, 1608–1627 (2007).
Turner, R., Bowers, J. & Burgess, T. Sonoran Desert Plants: An Ecological Atlas (Univ. Arizona Press, Tucson, AZ, 1995).
Vera, C. et al. Toward a unified view of the American monsoon systems. J. Clim. 19, 4977–5000 (2006).
Adams, D. K. & Comrie, A. C. The North American monsoon. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 78, 2197–2213 (1997).
Jana, S., Rajagopalan, B., Alexander, M. A. & Ray, A. J. Understanding the dominant sources and tracks of moisture for summer rainfall in the southwest United States. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 19, 4850–4870 (2018).
Hu, H. & Dominguez, F. Evaluation of oceanic and terrestrial sources of moisture for the North American monsoon using numerical models and precipitation stable isotopes. J. Hydrometeorol. 16, 19–35 (2015).
Vivoni, E. R., Tai, K. & Gochis, D. J. Effects of initial soil moisture on rainfall generation and subsequent hydrologic response during the North American Monsoon. J. Hydrometeorol. 10, 644–664 (2009).
Small, E. E. The influence of soil moisture anomalies on variability of the North American Monsoon system. Geophys. Res. Lett. 28, 139–142 (2001).
Findell, K. L., Gentine, P., Lintner, B. R., & Kerr, C. Probability of afternoon precipitation in eastern United States and Mexico enhanced by high evaporation. Nat. Geosci. 4, 434–439 (2011).
Erfani, E. & Mitchell, D. A partial mechanistic understanding of the North American Monsoon. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 119, 13096–13115 (2014).
Mitchell, D. L., Ivanova, D., Rabin, R., Brown, T. J. & Redmond, K. Gulf of California sea surface temperatures and the North American Monsoon: mechanistic implications from observations. J. Clim. 15, 2261–2281 (2002).
Carleton, A. M. Synoptic-dynamic character of ‘bursts’ and ‘breaks’ in the South-west US summer precipitation singularity. Int. J. Climatol. 6, 605–623 (1986).
Pascale, S. & Bordoni, S. Tropical and extratropical controls of Gulf of California surges and summertime precipitation over the southwestern United States. Mon. Weather Rev. 144, 2695–2718 (2016).
Pascale, S. et al. Weakening of the North American monsoon with global warming.Nat. Clim. Change. 7, 806–812 (2017).
Meyer, J. D. & Jin, J. The response of future projections of the North American monsoon when combining dynamical downscaling and bias correction of CCSM4 output. Clim. Dynam. 49, 433–447 (2017).
Cook, B. & Seager, R. The response of the North American monsoon to increased greenhouse gas forcing. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 118, 1690–1699 (2013).
Braconnot, P. et al. Evaluation of climate models using palaeoclimatic data. Nat. Clim. Change 2, 417–424 (2012).
Metcalfe, S. E., O’Hara, S. L., Caballero, M. & Davies, S. J. Records of Late Pleistocene-Holocene climatic change in Mexico: a review. Quat. Sci. Rev. 19, 699–721 (2000).
Kutzbach, J. et al. Climate and biome simulations for the past 21,000 years. Quat. Sci. Rev. 17, 473–506 (1998).
Thompson, R. S. & Anderson, K. H. Biomes of western North America at 18,000, 6000 and 0 14C yr bp reconstructed from pollen and packrat midden data. J. Biogeogr. 27, 555–584 (2000).
Barron, J. A., Metcalfe, S. E., & Addison, J. A. Response of the North American monsoon to regional changesin ocean surface temperature. Paleoceanography 27, (2012).
Metcalfe, S. E., Barron, J. A., & Davies, S. J. The Holocene history of the North American monsoon: ‘known known’ and ‘known unknowns’ in understanding its spatial and temporal complexity.Quat. Sci. Rev. 120, 1–27 (2015).
Bhattacharya, T., Tierney, J. E. & DiNezio, P. Glacial reduction of the North American monsoon via surface cooling and atmospheric ventilation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 5113–5122 (2017).
Asmerom, Y., Polyak, V. J. & Burns, S. J. Variable winter moisture in the southwestern United States linked to rapid glacial climate shifts. Nat. Geosci. 3, 114–117 (2010).
Wagner, J. D. et al. Moisture variability in the southwestern United States linked to abrupt glacial climate change. Nat. Geosci. 3, 110–113 (2010).
Oster, J. L., Ibarra, D. E., Winnick, M. J., & Maher, K. Steering of westerly storms over western North America at the Last Glacial Maximum. Nat. Geosci. 8, 201–205 (2015).
Lachniet, M. S., Asmerom, Y., Bernal, J. P., Polyak, V. J. & Vazquez-Selem, L. Orbital pacing and ocean circulation-induced collapses of the Mesoamerican monsoon over the past 22,000 y. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 110, 9255–9260 (2013).
Roy, P. D. et al. Paleohydrology of the Santiaguillo Basin (Mexico) since late last glacial and climate variation in southern part of western subtropical North America. Quat. Res. 84, 335–347 (2015).
Lozano-Garca, M. S., Ortega-Guerrero, B. & Sosa-Nájera, S. Mid-to late-Wisconsin pollen record of San Felipe basin, Baja California. Quat. Res. 58, 84–92 (2002).
Holmgren, C. A., Norris, J. & Betancourt, J. L. Inferences about winter temperatures and summer rains from the late Quaternary record of C4 perennial grasses and C3 desert shrubs in the northern Chihuahuan Desert.J. Quat. Sci. 22, 141–161 (2007).
Roy, P. D. et al. Late Quaternary paleohydrological conditions in the drylands of northern Mexico: a summer precipitation proxy record of the last 80 cal ka bp. Quat. Sci. Rev. 78, 342–354 (2013).
Schmidt, M. W. & Lynch-Stieglitz, J. Florida Straits deglacial temperature and salinity change: Implications for tropical hydrologic cycle variability during the Younger Dryas. Paleoceanography 26, PA4205 (2011).
Pichevin, L.et al. Silicic acid biogeochemistry in the Gulf of California: insights from sedimentary Si isotopes.Paleoceanography 27, (2012).
McClymont, E. L. et al. Sea-surface temperature records of Termination 1 in the Gulf of California: Challenges for seasonal and interannual analogues of tropical Pacific climate change. Paleoceanography 27, PA2202 (2012).
Peltier, W., Argus, D. & Drummond, R. Space geodesy constrains ice age terminal deglaciation: the global ICE-6G_C (VM5a) model. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth. 120, 450–487 (2015).
Singarayer, J. S. & Valdes, P. J. High-latitude climate sensitivity to ice-sheet forcing over the last 120kyr. Quat. Sci. Rev. 29, 43–55 (2010).
Davies-Barnard, T., Ridgwell, A., Singarayer, J. & Valdes, P. Quantifying the influence of the terrestrial biosphere on glacial-interglacial climate dynamics. Clim. Past 13, 1381–1401 (2017).
Tierney, J. E. et al. Deglacial Indian monsoon failure and North Atlantic stadials linked by Indian Ocean surface cooling. Nat. Geosci. 9, 46–50 (2016).
Chang, P. et al. Oceanic link between abrupt changes in the North Atlantic Ocean and the African monsoon. Nat. Geosci. 1, 444–448 (2008).
Su, H. & Neelin, J. D. Dynamical mechanisms for African monsoon changes during the mid-Holocene. J. Geophys. Res. 110, D19105 (2005).
Molnar, P., Boos, W. R. & Battisti, D. S. Orographic controls on climate and paleoclimate of Asia: thermal and mechanical roles for the Tibetan Plateau. Annu. Rev. Earth. Planet. Sci. 38, 77–102 (2010).
Boos, W. R. A review of recent progress on Tibet’s role in the South Asian monsoon. CLIVAR Exch. 19, 23–27 (2015).
Chiang, J. C. et al. Role of seasonal transitions and westerly jets in East Asian paleoclimate. Quat. Sci. Rev. 108, 111–129 (2015).
Chen, J. & Bordoni, S. Orographic effects of the Tibetan Plateau on the East Asian summer monsoon: An energetic perspective. J. Clim. 27, 3052–3072 (2014).
Schneider, U. et al. GPCC’s new land surface precipitation climatology based on quality-controlled in situ data and its role in quantifying the global water cycle. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 115, 15–40 (2014).
Keigwin, L. D. Late Pleistocene-Holocene paleoceanography and ventilation of the Gulf of California. J. Oceanogr. 58, 421–432 (2002).
Goodfriend, G. A. & Flessa, K. W. Radiocarbon reservoir ages in the Gulf of California: roles of upwelling and flow from the Colorado River. Radiocarbon 39, 139–148 (1997).
Ganeshram, R. S. & Pedersen, T. F. Glacial-interglacial variability in upwelling and bioproductivity off NW Mexico: implications for Quaternary paleoclimate. Paleoceanography 13, 634–645 (1998).
Blaauw, M. et al. Flexible paleoclimate age-depth models using an autoregressive gamma process. Bayesian Anal. 6, 457–474 (2011).
Sachse, D. et al. Molecular paleohydrology: interpreting the hydrogen-isotopic composition of lipid biomarkers from photosynthesizing organisms. Annu. Rev. Earth. Planet. Sci. 40, 221–249 (2012).
Lisiecki, L. E. & Raymo, M. E. A Pliocene-Pleistocene stack of 57 globally distributed benthic δ18O records. Paleoceanography 20, PA1003 (2005).
Schrag, D. P., Hampt, G. & Murray, D. W. Pore fluid constraints on the temperature and oxygen isotopic composition of the glacial ocean. Science 272, 1930–1932 (1996).
Schreuder, L. T., Stuut, J.-B. W., Korte, L. F., Damsté, J. S. S. & Schouten, S. Aeolian transport and deposition of plant wax n-alkanes across the tropical North Atlantic Ocean. Org. Geochem. 115, 113–123 (2018).
Gao, L., Edwards, E. J., Zeng, Y. & Huang, Y. Major evolutionary trends in hydrogen isotope fractionation of vascular plant leaf waxes. PLoS ONE 9, e112610 (2014).
Tierney, J. E. et al. Rainfall regimes of the Green Sahara. Sci. Adv. 3, e1601503 (2017).
Mesinger, F. et al. North American regional reanalysis. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 87, 343–360 (2006).
Nigam, S. & Ruiz-Barradas, A. Seasonal hydroclimate variability over North America in global and regional reanalyses and AMIP simulations: varied representation. J. Clim. 19, 815–837 (2006).
Mo, K. C., Chelliah, M., Carrera, M. L., Higgins, R. W. & Ebisuzaki, W. Atmospheric moisture transport over the United States and Mexico as evaluated in the NCEP Regional Reanalysis. J. Hydrometeorol. 6, 710–728 (2005).
Eastoe, C. & Dettman, D. Isotope amount effects in hydrologic and climate reconstructions of monsoon climates: Implications of some long-term data sets for precipitation. Chem. Geol. 430, 78–89 (2016).
Aggarwal, P. K. et al. Stable isotopes in global precipitation: a unified interpretation based on atmospheric moisture residence time. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L11705 (2012).
Risi, C., Bony, S. & Vimeux, F. Influence of convective processes on the isotopic composition (δ18O and δD) of precipitation and water vapor in the tropics: 2. physical interpretation of the amount effect. J. Geophys. Res. 113, D19306 (2008).
Kahmen, A. et al. Leaf water deuterium enrichment shapes leaf wax n-alkane δd values of angiosperm plants ii: Observational evidence and global implications. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 111, 50–63 (2013).
Berke, M. A., Tipple, B. J., Hambach, B. & Ehleringer, J. R. Life form-specific gradients in compound-specific hydrogen isotope ratios of modern leaf waxes along a North American Monsoonal transect. Oecologia. 179, 981–997 (2015).
Gelman, A. et al. Bayesian Data Analysis 2nd edn (CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL, 2014).
Valdes, P. J. et al. The BRIDGE HadCM3 family of climate models: HadCM3@ Bristol v1. 0. Geosci. Model Dev. Discus. 10, 3715–3743 (2017).
Cox, P. M. Description of the TRIFFID Dynamic Global Vegetation Model Technical Note 24 (Hadley Centre, 2001).
Peltier, W. Global glacial isostasy and the surface of the ice-age Earth: the ICE-5G (VM2) model and GRACE. Annu. Rev. Earth. Planet. Sci. 32, 111–149 (2004).
Holton, J. R. & Hakim, G. J. An Introduction to Dynamic Meteorology Vol. 88 (Academic, Waltham, MA, 2012).
Argus, D. F., Peltier, W., Drummond, R. & Moore, A. W. The Antarctica component of postglacial rebound model ICE-6G_C (VM5a) based on GPS positioning, exposure age dating of ice thicknesses, and relative sea level histories. Geophys. J. Int. 198, 537–563 (2014).