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Global energetics and local physics as drivers of past, present and future monsoons

Abstract

Global constraints on momentum and energy govern the variability of the rainfall belt in the intertropical convergence zone and the structure of the zonal mean tropical circulation. The continental-scale monsoon systems are also facets of a momentum- and energy-constrained global circulation, but their modern and palaeo variability deviates substantially from that of the intertropical convergence zone. The mechanisms underlying deviations from expectations based on the longitudinal mean budgets are neither fully understood nor simulated accurately. We argue that a framework grounded in global constraints on energy and momentum yet encompassing the complexities of monsoon dynamics is needed to identify the causes of the mismatch between theory, models and observations, and ultimately to improve regional climate projections. In a first step towards this goal, disparate regional processes must be distilled into gross measures of energy flow in and out of continents and between the surface and the tropopause, so that monsoon dynamics may be coherently diagnosed across modern and palaeo observations and across idealized and comprehensive simulations. Accounting for zonal asymmetries in the circulation, land/ocean differences in surface fluxes, and the character of convective systems, such a monsoon framework would integrate our understanding at all relevant scales: from the fine details of how moisture and energy are lifted in the updrafts of thunderclouds, up to the global circulations.

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Fig. 1: Distinct tropical convection systems are organized in a planetary-scale rain belt.
Fig. 2: Palaeo changes in rainfall test comprehensive models and theoretical simplifications.
Fig. 3: Rainfall in the ITCZ and in monsoons is linked to planetary and regional fluxes of energy.
Fig. 4: The aggregate character of convective systems presents regional differences.

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Acknowledgements

We gratefully acknowledge the contributors to the workshop ‘Monsoons & ITCZ: the annual cycle in the Holocene and the future’, held at Columbia University in September 2015: the original idea for this Review Article was born of the insights and excitement engendered by their results and from the lively community discussion of ideas and approaches. The workshop was conceived under the aegis of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Grand Challenge on Cloud Circulation and Climate Sensitivity, and was made possible by the generous support of the Columbia Climate Center and the Columbia Initiative on Extreme Weather and Climate. NSF award AGS-1536461 supported the participation of early career scientists. We thank A. Funk for the analysis displayed in Fig. 4. We gratefully acknowledge the National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA) for TRMM3B42 and GPM rainfall data, TRMM2A23 and TRMM2A25 reflectivities, and MERRA reanalysis; the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for the CMAP rainfall data; the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) for the ERA Interim reanalysis; and the WCRP’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling and all participating modelling centres for CMIP5 and PMIP3 data. M.B., A.V. and J.S. are supported by NSF award AGS-1565522. M.B. is supported by DOE award DE-SC0014423. A.V. is supported by the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and FONA: Research for Sustainable Development (www.fona.de) under grant agreement 01LK1509A. S.P.H. acknowledges support from the ERC-funded project GC2.0 (Global Change 2.0: Unlocking the past for a clearer future, grant number 694481).

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M.B. led the writing process and produced Fig. 1 (from an idea by B.E.M.), Fig. 2 (from data provided by S.P.H. and P.B.), and Fig. 3 (in collaboration with W.R.B. and A.V.). C.S. produced Fig. 4. All authors collaboratively drafted the outline of the paper and greatly contributed to the writing process.

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Correspondence to Michela Biasutti.

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Biasutti, M., Voigt, A., Boos, W.R. et al. Global energetics and local physics as drivers of past, present and future monsoons. Nature Geosci 11, 392–400 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0137-1

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