• Subscribe to Nature Geoscience for full access:



Additional access options:

Already a subscriber?  Log in  now or  Register  for online access.


  1. 1.

    Summary for Policymakers in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds. Stocker, T. F. et al.) 1–28 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).

  2. 2.

    Summary for Policymakers in Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (eds Field, C. B. et al.) 1–32 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).

  3. 3.

    Morice, C. P., Kennedy, J. J., Rayner, N. A. & Jones, P. D. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos 117, D017187 (2012).

  4. 4.

    Kirtman, B., Adedoyin, A. & Bindoff, N. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) 953–1028 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).

  5. 5.

    Report on the Structured Expert Dialogue on the 2013–2015 Review FCCC/SB/2015/INF.1 (UNFCCC, 2015).

  6. 6.

    Schurer, A. P. et al. Nat. Geosci. https://doi.org/s41561-018-0086-8 (2018).

  7. 7.

    Millar, R. J. et al. Nat. Geosci. 10, 741–747 (2017).

  8. 8.

    Schurer, A. P., Mann, M. E., Hawkins, E., Tett, S. F. B. & Hegerl, G. C. Nat. Clim. Change 7, 563–567 (2017).

  9. 9.

    Knutti, R., Rogelj, J., Sedláček, J. & Fischer, E. M. Nat. Geosci. 9, 13–18 (2015).

  10. 10.

    Rogelj, J., Schleussner, C. F. & Hare, W. Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 10662–10665 (2017).

Download references

Author information


  1. Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

    • Richard J. Millar
    • , Joeri Rogelj
    •  & Myles R. Allen
  2. Center for International Climate and Environmental Research — Oslo (CICERO), Oslo, Norway

    • Jan S. Fuglestvedt
    •  & Ragnhild B. Skeie
  3. College of Engineering, Mathematical and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK

    • Pierre Friedlingstein
  4. Energy Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria

    • Joeri Rogelj
  5. Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland

    • Joeri Rogelj
  6. Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK

    • Michael J. Grubb
  7. Concordia University, Montreal, Canada

    • H. Damon Matthews
  8. School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK

    • Piers M. Forster
  9. New Zealand Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand

    • David J. Frame
  10. Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

    • Myles R. Allen


  1. Search for Richard J. Millar in:

  2. Search for Jan S. Fuglestvedt in:

  3. Search for Pierre Friedlingstein in:

  4. Search for Joeri Rogelj in:

  5. Search for Michael J. Grubb in:

  6. Search for H. Damon Matthews in:

  7. Search for Ragnhild B. Skeie in:

  8. Search for Piers M. Forster in:

  9. Search for David J. Frame in:

  10. Search for Myles R. Allen in:

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Richard J. Millar.