Photoautotrophic surface communities forming biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are crucial for soil stability as well as water, nutrient and trace gas cycling at regional and global scales. Quantitative information on their global coverage and the environmental factors driving their distribution patterns, however, are not readily available. We use observations and environmental modelling to estimate the global distribution of biocrusts and their response to global change using future projected scenarios. We find that biocrusts currently covering approximately 12% of Earth’s terrestrial surface will decrease by about 25–40% within 65 years due to anthropogenically caused climate change and land-use intensification, responding far more drastically than vascular plants. Our results illustrate that current biocrust occurrence is mainly driven by a combination of precipitation, temperature and land management, and future changes are expected to be affected by land-use and climate change in similar proportion. The predicted loss of biocrusts may substantially reduce the microbial contribution to nitrogen cycling and enhance the emissions of soil dust, which affects the functioning of ecosystems as well as human health and should be considered in the modelling, mitigation and management of global change.
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This work was supported by the Max Planck Society, the Paul Crutzen Nobel Laureate Fellowship, and the German Research Foundation (DFG-FOR 1525: INUIT; WE2393/2; BU666/11-17). J.B. is supported by USGS Climate and Land Use and Ecosystems programs. The authors want to thank J.M.R. Mullor for his help during spatial distribution modelling, C. Reick for his support during the modelling and data acquisition process, and J. Kesselmeier for his helpful internal review of our study. Any use of trade, firm or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the US Government. We would like to dedicate this publication to Professor Otto L. Lange.
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