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US ENERGY MARKETS

Predicting unpredictability

Nature Energy volume 3, pages 257–258 (2018)Cite this article

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A Publisher Correction to this article was published on 03 May 2018

This article has been updated

Analysts and markets have struggled to predict a number of phenomena, such as the rise of natural gas, in US energy markets over the past decade or so. Research shows the challenge may grow because the industry — and consequently the market — is becoming increasingly volatile.

Long-range forecasts of complex human systems are notoriously bad1. The energy sector is no exception; ten-year projections of energy commodity prices, production or consumption are often so wrong as to be irrelevant within months of having been made2. Yet energy analysts are a resolute bunch: each year sees the release of another set of long-term projections for quantities such as oil price, residential energy consumption and natural gas imports. Indeed, Twitter and energy blogs are abuzz with interpretations and critiques of this year’s Annual Energy Outlook, which was released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on 6 February 20183.

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Fig. 1: Projections versus reality.

Change history

  • 03 May 2018

    In this News & Views article originally published, the wrong graph was used for panel b of Fig. 1, and the numbers on the y axes of panels a and c were incorrect; the original and corrected Fig. 1 is shown below. This has now been corrected in all versions of the News & Views.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA, USA

    Steven J. Davis

  2. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA, USA

    Steven J. Davis

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  1. Steven J. Davis
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Correspondence to Steven J. Davis.

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Davis, S.J. Predicting unpredictability. Nat Energy 3, 257–258 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0127-y

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