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High-resolution assessment of global technical and economic hydropower potential

Nature Energy volume 2, pages 821–828 (2017)Cite this article

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Abstract

Hydropower is the most important renewable energy source to date, providing over 72% of all renewable electricity globally. Yet, only limited information is available on the global potential supply of hydropower and the associated costs. Here we provide a high-resolution assessment of the technical and economic potential of hydropower at a near-global scale. Using 15”×15” discharge and 3”×3” digital elevation maps, we built virtual hydropower installations at >3.8 million sites across the globe and calculated their potential using cost optimization methods. This way we identified over 60,000 suitable sites, which together represent a remaining global potential of 9.49 PWh yr−1 below US$0.50 kWh−1. The largest remaining potential is found in Asia Pacific (39%), South America (25%) and Africa (24%), of which a large part can be produced at low cost (<US$0.10 kWh−1). In an ecological scenario, this potential is reduced to 5.67 PWh yr−1.

Hydropower currently supplies 16% of the world’s total electricity and over 72% of all renewable electricity1. Its reliable energy production makes hydropower an attractive alternative to fossil-fuel-based technologies. Furthermore, thanks to the flexibility and energy storage capacity, some forms of hydropower can play a key role in balancing intermittent supply from solar and wind sources. However, despite these advantages, information on the potential future supply of hydropower is far less developed than for other renewable energy sources. While the literature includes several global assessments of solar and wind potential2,3,4,5, similar information on hydropower is still lacking. As a result, nearly all energy-economy models and publications on energy and climate change1, 6,7,8 are confined to using the global estimates from the Hydropower Atlas9, which are based on a disparate range of national government surveys rather than a consistent global methodology.

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Fig. 1: Global and regional cost–supply curves and their geographic locations.
Fig. 2: Remaining and calculated existing hydropower potential of the ten largest basins per continent.
Fig. 3: Sensitivity of the remaining potential by parameter settings and climate change.

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Acknowledgements

C. Ettema is acknowledged for editing part of the manuscript. Moreover, the study benefitted from FP7/2007-2013 financial support under grant agreement number 308329 (ADVANCE).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. PBL - Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bezuidenhoutseweg 30, 2594 AV, Den Haag, The Netherlands

    David E. H. J. Gernaat, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Hester Biemans & Robin Niessink

  2. Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3584 CS, Utrecht, The Netherlands

    David E. H. J. Gernaat, Patrick W. Bogaart, Detlef P. van Vuuren & Robin Niessink

  3. Wageningen Environmental Research (Alterra), PO Box 47, 6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands

    Hester Biemans

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  1. David E. H. J. Gernaat
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Contributions

D.E.H.J.G. and P.W.B. conceived the idea and developed the modelling techniques. D.P.v.V. assisted in refining the idea and manuscript. H.B. provided climate input data and R.N. assisted in preparatory analyses. D.E.H.J.G. drafted the manuscript. All authors discussed the results and contributed to the manuscript.

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Correspondence to David E. H. J. Gernaat.

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Supplementary Tables 1–5, Supplementary Figures 1–3 and Supplementary References

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Gernaat, D.E.H.J., Bogaart, P.W., Vuuren, D.P.v. et al. High-resolution assessment of global technical and economic hydropower potential. Nat Energy 2, 821–828 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-017-0006-y

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